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The random forest (RF) algorithm has become a very popular prediction method for its great flexibility and promising accuracy. In RF, it is conventional to put equal weights on all the base learners (trees) to aggregate their predictions. However, the predictive performances of different trees within the forest can be very different due to the randomization of the embedded bootstrap sampling and feature selection. In this paper, we focus on RF for regression and propose two optimal weighting algorithms, namely the 1 Step Optimal Weighted RF (1step-WRF$_\mathrm{opt}$) and 2 Steps Optimal Weighted RF (2steps-WRF$_\mathrm{opt}$), that combine the base learners through the weights determined by weight choice criteria. Under some regularity conditions, we show that these algorithms are asymptotically optimal in the sense that the resulting squared loss and risk are asymptotically identical to those of the infeasible but best possible model averaging estimator. Numerical studies conducted on real-world data sets indicate that these algorithms outperform the equal-weight forest and two other weighted RFs proposed in existing literature in most cases.

This paper presents an achievability bound that evaluates the exact probability of error of an ensemble of random codes that are decoded by a minimum distance decoder. Compared to the state-of-the-art which demands exponential computation time, this bound is evaluated in polynomial time. This improvement in complexity is also attainable for the original random coding bound that utilizes an information density decoder. The general bound is particularized for the binary symmetric channel, the binary erasure channel, and the Gaussian channel.

We discuss the approximation of the eigensolutions associated with the Maxwell eigenvalues problem in the framework of least-squares finite elements. We write the Maxwell curl curl equation as a system of two first order equation and design a novel least-squares formulation whose minimum is attained at the solution of the system. The eigensolution are then approximated by considering the eigenmodes of the underlying solution operator. We study the convergence of the finite element approximation and we show several numerical tests confirming the good behavior of the method. It turns out that nodal elements can be successfully employed for the approximation of our problem also in presence of singular solutions.

We propose a self-stabilizing leader election (SS-LE) protocol on ring networks in the population protocol model. Given a rough knowledge $\psi = \lceil \log n \rceil + O(1)$ on the population size $n$, the proposed protocol lets the population reach a safe configuration within $O(n^2 \log n)$ steps with high probability starting from any configuration. Thereafter, the population keeps the unique leader forever. Since no protocol solves SS-LE in $o(n^2)$ steps with high probability, the convergence time is near-optimal: the gap is only an $O(\log n)$ multiplicative factor. This protocol uses only $polylog(n)$ states. There exist two state-of-the-art algorithms in current literature that solve SS-LE on ring networks. The first algorithm uses a polynomial number of states and solves SS-LE in $O(n^2)$ steps, whereas the second algorithm requires exponential time but it uses only a constant number of states. Our proposed algorithm provides an excellent middle ground between these two.

Noisy marginals are a common form of confidentiality-protecting data release and are useful for many downstream tasks such as contingency table analysis, construction of Bayesian networks, and even synthetic data generation. Privacy mechanisms that provide unbiased noisy answers to linear queries (such as marginals) are known as matrix mechanisms. We propose ResidualPlanner, a matrix mechanism for marginals with Gaussian noise that is both optimal and scalable. ResidualPlanner can optimize for many loss functions that can be written as a convex function of marginal variances (prior work was restricted to just one predefined objective function). ResidualPlanner can optimize the accuracy of marginals in large scale settings in seconds, even when the previous state of the art (HDMM) runs out of memory. It even runs on datasets with 100 attributes in a couple of minutes. Furthermore ResidualPlanner can efficiently compute variance/covariance values for each marginal (prior methods quickly run out of memory, even for relatively small datasets).

Computational models are powerful tools for understanding human cognition and behavior. They let us express our theories clearly and precisely, and offer predictions that can be subtle and often counter-intuitive. However, this same richness and ability to surprise means our scientific intuitions and traditional tools are ill-suited to designing experiments to test and compare these models. To avoid these pitfalls and realize the full potential of computational modeling, we require tools to design experiments that provide clear answers about what models explain human behavior and the auxiliary assumptions those models must make. Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) formalizes the search for optimal experimental designs by identifying experiments that are expected to yield informative data. In this work, we provide a tutorial on leveraging recent advances in BOED and machine learning to find optimal experiments for any kind of model that we can simulate data from, and show how by-products of this procedure allow for quick and straightforward evaluation of models and their parameters against real experimental data. As a case study, we consider theories of how people balance exploration and exploitation in multi-armed bandit decision-making tasks. We validate the presented approach using simulations and a real-world experiment. As compared to experimental designs commonly used in the literature, we show that our optimal designs more efficiently determine which of a set of models best account for individual human behavior, and more efficiently characterize behavior given a preferred model. We provide code to replicate all analyses as well as tutorial notebooks and pointers to adapt the methodology to other experimental settings.

We consider the well-studied Robust $(k, z)$-Clustering problem, which generalizes the classic $k$-Median, $k$-Means, and $k$-Center problems. Given a constant $z\ge 1$, the input to Robust $(k, z)$-Clustering is a set $P$ of $n$ weighted points in a metric space $(M,\delta)$ and a positive integer $k$. Further, each point belongs to one (or more) of the $m$ many different groups $S_1,S_2,\ldots,S_m$. Our goal is to find a set $X$ of $k$ centers such that $\max_{i \in [m]} \sum_{p \in S_i} w(p) \delta(p,X)^z$ is minimized. This problem arises in the domains of robust optimization [Anthony, Goyal, Gupta, Nagarajan, Math. Oper. Res. 2010] and in algorithmic fairness. For polynomial time computation, an approximation factor of $O(\log m/\log\log m)$ is known [Makarychev, Vakilian, COLT $2021$], which is tight under a plausible complexity assumption even in the line metrics. For FPT time, there is a $(3^z+\epsilon)$-approximation algorithm, which is tight under GAP-ETH [Goyal, Jaiswal, Inf. Proc. Letters, 2023]. Motivated by the tight lower bounds for general discrete metrics, we focus on \emph{geometric} spaces such as the (discrete) high-dimensional Euclidean setting and metrics of low doubling dimension, which play an important role in data analysis applications. First, for a universal constant $\eta_0 >0.0006$, we devise a $3^z(1-\eta_{0})$-factor FPT approximation algorithm for discrete high-dimensional Euclidean spaces thereby bypassing the lower bound for general metrics. We complement this result by showing that even the special case of $k$-Center in dimension $\Theta(\log n)$ is $(\sqrt{3/2}- o(1))$-hard to approximate for FPT algorithms. Finally, we complete the FPT approximation landscape by designing an FPT $(1+\epsilon)$-approximation scheme (EPAS) for the metric of sub-logarithmic doubling dimension.

Observational studies are the primary source of data for causal inference, but it is challenging when existing unmeasured confounding. Missing data problems are also common in observational studies. How to obtain the causal effects from the nonignorable missing data with unmeasured confounding is a challenge. In this paper, we consider that how to obtain complier average causal effect with unmeasured confounding from the nonignorable missing outcomes. We propose an auxiliary variable which plays two roles simultaneously, the one is the shadow variable for identification and the other is the instrumental variable for inference. We also illustrate some difference between some missing outcomes mechanisms in the previous work and the shadow variable assumption. We give a causal diagram to illustrate this description. Under such a setting, we present a general condition for nonparametric identification of the full data law from the nonignorable missing outcomes with this auxiliary variable. For inference, firstly, we recover the mean value of the outcome based on the generalized method of moments. Secondly, we propose an estimator to adjust for the unmeasured confounding to obtain complier average causal effect. We also establish the asymptotic results of the estimated parameters. We evaluate its performance via simulations and apply it to a real-life dataset about a political analysis.

Random smoothing data augmentation is a unique form of regularization that can prevent overfitting by introducing noise to the input data, encouraging the model to learn more generalized features. Despite its success in various applications, there has been a lack of systematic study on the regularization ability of random smoothing. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by presenting a framework for random smoothing regularization that can adaptively and effectively learn a wide range of ground truth functions belonging to the classical Sobolev spaces. Specifically, we investigate two underlying function spaces: the Sobolev space of low intrinsic dimension, which includes the Sobolev space in $D$-dimensional Euclidean space or low-dimensional sub-manifolds as special cases, and the mixed smooth Sobolev space with a tensor structure. By using random smoothing regularization as novel convolution-based smoothing kernels, we can attain optimal convergence rates in these cases using a kernel gradient descent algorithm, either with early stopping or weight decay. It is noteworthy that our estimator can adapt to the structural assumptions of the underlying data and avoid the curse of dimensionality. This is achieved through various choices of injected noise distributions such as Gaussian, Laplace, or general polynomial noises, allowing for broad adaptation to the aforementioned structural assumptions of the underlying data. The convergence rate depends only on the effective dimension, which may be significantly smaller than the actual data dimension. We conduct numerical experiments on simulated data to validate our theoretical results.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms are known to scale poorly to environments with many available actions, requiring numerous samples to learn an optimal policy. The traditional approach of considering the same fixed action space in every possible state implies that the agent must understand, while also learning to maximize its reward, to ignore irrelevant actions such as $\textit{inapplicable actions}$ (i.e. actions that have no effect on the environment when performed in a given state). Knowing this information can help reduce the sample complexity of RL algorithms by masking the inapplicable actions from the policy distribution to only explore actions relevant to finding an optimal policy. While this technique has been formalized for quite some time within the Automated Planning community with the concept of precondition in the STRIPS language, RL algorithms have never formally taken advantage of this information to prune the search space to explore. This is typically done in an ad-hoc manner with hand-crafted domain logic added to the RL algorithm. In this paper, we propose a more systematic approach to introduce this knowledge into the algorithm. We (i) standardize the way knowledge can be manually specified to the agent; and (ii) present a new framework to autonomously learn the partial action model encapsulating the precondition of an action jointly with the policy. We show experimentally that learning inapplicable actions greatly improves the sample efficiency of the algorithm by providing a reliable signal to mask out irrelevant actions. Moreover, we demonstrate that thanks to the transferability of the knowledge acquired, it can be reused in other tasks and domains to make the learning process more efficient.