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In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so that additional assumptions are often imposed to model or limit the underlying social mechanism. For binary outcomes, we propose an approach that does not require such assumptions, allowing for interference that is both unmodeled and strong, with confidence intervals derived using only the randomization of treatment. However, the estimates will have wider confidence intervals and weaker causal implications than those attainable under stronger assumptions. The approach allows for the usage of regression, matching, or weighting, as may best fit the application at hand. Inference is done by bounding the distribution of the estimation error over all possible values of the unknown counterfactual, using an integer program. Examples are shown using using a vaccination trial and two experiments investigating social influence.

Estimating the conditional quantile of the interested variable with respect to changes in the covariates is frequent in many economical applications as it can offer a comprehensive insight. In this paper, we propose a novel semiparametric model averaging to predict the conditional quantile even if all models under consideration are potentially misspecified. Specifically, we first build a series of non-nested partially linear sub-models, each with different nonlinear component. Then a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion is applied to choose the model weights. Under some regularity conditions, we have proved that the resulting model averaging estimator is asymptotically optimal in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample average quantile prediction error. Our modelling strategy not only effectively avoids the problem of specifying which a covariate should be nonlinear when one fits a partially linear model, but also results in a more accurate prediction than traditional model-based procedures because of the optimality of the selected weights by the cross-validation criterion. Simulation experiments and an illustrative application show that our proposed model averaging method is superior to other commonly used alternatives.

Multiple hypothesis testing has been widely applied to problems dealing with high-dimensional data, e.g., selecting significant variables and controlling the selection error rate. The most prevailing measure of error rate used in the multiple hypothesis testing is the false discovery rate (FDR). In recent years, local false discovery rate (fdr) has drawn much attention, due to its advantage of accessing the confidence of individual hypothesis. However, most methods estimate fdr through p-values or statistics with known null distributions, which are sometimes not available or reliable. Adopting the innovative methodology of competition-based procedures, e.g., knockoff filter, this paper proposes a new approach, named TDfdr, to local false discovery rate estimation, which is free of the p-values or known null distributions. Simulation results demonstrate that TDfdr can accurately estimate the fdr with two competition-based procedures. In real data analysis, the power of TDfdr on variable selection is verified on two biological datasets.

We consider experiments in dynamical systems where interventions on some experimental units impact other units through a limiting constraint (such as a limited inventory). Despite outsize practical importance, the best estimators for this `Markovian' interference problem are largely heuristic in nature, and their bias is not well understood. We formalize the problem of inference in such experiments as one of policy evaluation. Off-policy estimators, while unbiased, apparently incur a large penalty in variance relative to state-of-the-art heuristics. We introduce an on-policy estimator: the Differences-In-Q's (DQ) estimator. We show that the DQ estimator can in general have exponentially smaller variance than off-policy evaluation. At the same time, its bias is second order in the impact of the intervention. This yields a striking bias-variance tradeoff so that the DQ estimator effectively dominates state-of-the-art alternatives. From a theoretical perspective, we introduce three separate novel techniques that are of independent interest in the theory of Reinforcement Learning (RL). Our empirical evaluation includes a set of experiments on a city-scale ride-hailing simulator.

Finding the features relevant to the difference in treatment effects is essential to unveil the underlying causal mechanisms. Existing methods seek such features by measuring how greatly the feature attributes affect the degree of the {\it conditional average treatment effect} (CATE). However, these methods may overlook important features because CATE, a measure of the average treatment effect, cannot detect differences in distribution parameters other than the mean (e.g., variance). To resolve this weakness of existing methods, we propose a feature selection framework for discovering {\it distributional treatment effect modifiers}. We first formulate a feature importance measure that quantifies how strongly the feature attributes influence the discrepancy between potential outcome distributions. Then we derive its computationally efficient estimator and develop a feature selection algorithm that can control the type I error rate to the desired level. Experimental results show that our framework successfully discovers important features and outperforms the existing mean-based method.

Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate stochastic processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence or the partial coherence, encode comprehensively the complex linear relations between the component processes of the multivariate system. In this paper, we develop inference procedures for such parameters in a high-dimensional, time series setup. In particular, we first focus on the derivation of consistent estimators of the coherence and, more importantly, of the partial coherence which possess manageable limiting distributions that are suitable for testing purposes. Statistical tests of the hypothesis that the maximum over frequencies of the coherence, respectively, of the partial coherence, do not exceed a prespecified threshold value are developed. Our approach allows for testing hypotheses for individual coherences and/or partial coherences as well as for multiple testing of large sets of such parameters. In the latter case, a consistent procedure to control the false discovery rate is developed. The finite sample performance of the inference procedures proposed is investigated by means of simulations and applications to the construction of graphical interaction models for brain connectivity based on EEG data are presented.

In this paper, a new weighted average estimator (WAVE) is proposed to enhance the performance of the simple-averaging based distributed estimator, under a general loss with a high dimensional parameter. To obtain an efficient estimator, a weighted least-square ensemble framework plus an adaptive $L_1$ penalty is proposed, in which the local estimator is estimated via the adaptive-lasso and the weight is inversely proportional to the variance of local estimators. It can be proved that WAVE enjoys the same asymptotic properties as the global estimator and simultaneously spend a very low communication cost, only requiring the local worker to deliver two vectors to the master. Moreover, it is shown that WAVE is effective even when the samples across local workers have different mean and covariance. In particular, the asymptotic normality is established under such conditions, while other competitors may not own this property. The effectiveness of WAVE is further illustrated by an extensive numerical study and a real data analysis.

Evaluation of intervention in a multi-agent system, e.g., when humans should intervene in autonomous driving systems and when a player should pass to teammates for a good shot, is challenging in various engineering and scientific fields. Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) using counterfactual long-term prediction is practical to evaluate such interventions. However, most of the conventional frameworks did not consider the time-varying complex structure of multi-agent relationships and covariate counterfactual prediction. This may sometimes lead to erroneous assessments of ITE and interpretation problems. Here we propose an interpretable, counterfactual recurrent network in multi-agent systems to estimate the effect of the intervention. Our model leverages graph variational recurrent neural networks and theory-based computation with domain knowledge for the ITE estimation framework based on long-term prediction of multi-agent covariates and outcomes, which can confirm under the circumstances under which the intervention is effective. On simulated models of an automated vehicle and biological agents with time-varying confounders, we show that our methods achieved lower estimation errors in counterfactual covariates and the most effective treatment timing than the baselines. Furthermore, using real basketball data, our methods performed realistic counterfactual predictions and evaluated the counterfactual passes in shot scenarios.

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering inferences for complex, long-range dependencies challenging. In this paper, we develop a novel Causal Transformer for estimating counterfactual outcomes over time. Our model is specifically designed to capture complex, long-range dependencies among time-varying confounders. For this, we combine three transformer subnetworks with separate inputs for time-varying covariates, previous treatments, and previous outcomes into a joint network with in-between cross-attentions. We further develop a custom, end-to-end training procedure for our Causal Transformer. Specifically, we propose a novel counterfactual domain confusion loss to address confounding bias: it aims to learn adversarial balanced representations, so that they are predictive of the next outcome but non-predictive of the current treatment assignment. We evaluate our Causal Transformer based on synthetic and real-world datasets, where it achieves superior performance over current baselines. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work proposing transformer-based architecture for estimating counterfactual outcomes from longitudinal data.

Three critical issues for causal inference that often occur in modern, complicated experiments are interference, treatment nonadherence, and missing outcomes. A great deal of research efforts has been dedicated to developing causal inferential methodologies that address these issues separately. However, methodologies that can address these issues simultaneously are lacking. We propose a Bayesian causal inference methodology to address this gap. Our methodology extends existing causal frameworks and methods, specifically, two-staged randomized experiments and the principal stratification framework. In contrast to existing methods that invoke strong structural assumptions to identify principal causal effects, our Bayesian approach uses flexible distributional models that can accommodate the complexities of interference and missing outcomes, and that ensure that principal causal effects are weakly identifiable. We illustrate our methodology via simulation studies and a re-analysis of real-life data from an evaluation of India's National Health Insurance Program. Our methodology enables us to identify new significant causal effects that were not identified in past analyses. Ultimately, our simulation studies and case study demonstrate how our methodology can yield more informative analyses in modern experiments with interference, treatment nonadherence, missing outcomes, and complicated outcome generation mechanisms.