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In environmental and climate data, there is often an interest in determining if and when changes occur in a system. Such changes may result from localized sources in space and time like a volcanic eruption or climate geoengineering events. Detecting such events and their subsequent influence on climate has important policy implications. However, the climate system is complex, and such changes can be challenging to detect. One statistical perspective for changepoint detection is functional time series, where one observes an entire function at each time point. We will consider the context where each time point is a year, and we observe a function of temperature indexed by day of the year. Furthermore, such data is measured at many spatial locations on Earth, which motivates accommodating sets of functional time series that are spatially-indexed on a sphere. Simultaneously inferring changes that can occur at different times for different locations is challenging. We propose test statistics for detecting these changepoints, and we evaluate performance using varying levels of data complexity, including a simulation study, simplified climate model simulations, and climate reanalysis data. We evaluate changes in stratospheric temperature globally over 1984-1998. Such changes may be associated with the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991.

Virtual reality or cyber-sickness is a serious usability problem. Postural (or balance) instability theory has emerged as one of the primary hypotheses for the cause of VR sickness. In this paper, we conducted a two-week-long experiment to observe the trends in user balance learning and sickness tolerance under different experimental conditions to analyze the potential inter-relationship between them. The experimental results have shown, aside from the obvious improvement in balance performance itself, that accompanying balance training had a stronger effect of increasing tolerance to VR sickness than mere exposure to VR. In addition, training in VR was found to be more effective than using the 2D-based medium, especially for the transfer effect to other non-training VR content.

Sliced inverse regression (SIR), which includes linear discriminant analysis (LDA) as a special case, is a popular and powerful dimension reduction tool. In this article, we extend SIR to address the challenges of decentralized data, prioritizing privacy and communication efficiency. Our approach, named as federated sliced inverse regression (FSIR), facilitates collaborative estimation of the sufficient dimension reduction subspace among multiple clients, solely sharing local estimates to protect sensitive datasets from exposure. To guard against potential adversary attacks, FSIR further employs diverse perturbation strategies, including a novel vectorized Gaussian mechanism that guarantees differential privacy at a low cost of statistical accuracy. Additionally, FSIR naturally incorporates a collaborative variable screening step, enabling effective handling of high-dimensional client data. Theoretical properties of FSIR are established for both low-dimensional and high-dimensional settings, supported by extensive numerical experiments and real data analysis.

Temporal irreversibility, often referred to as the arrow of time, is a fundamental concept in statistical mechanics. Markers of irreversibility also provide a powerful characterisation of information processing in biological systems. However, current approaches tend to describe temporal irreversibility in terms of a single scalar quantity, without disentangling the underlying dynamics that contribute to irreversibility. Here we propose a broadly applicable information-theoretic framework to characterise the arrow of time in multivariate time series, which yields qualitatively different types of irreversible information dynamics. This multidimensional characterisation reveals previously unreported high-order modes of irreversibility, and establishes a formal connection between recent heuristic markers of temporal irreversibility and metrics of information processing. We demonstrate the prevalence of high-order irreversibility in the hyperactive regime of a biophysical model of brain dynamics, showing that our framework is both theoretically principled and empirically useful. This work challenges the view of the arrow of time as a monolithic entity, enhancing both our theoretical understanding of irreversibility and our ability to detect it in practical applications.

It is desirable for statistical models to detect signals of interest independently of their position. If the data is generated by some smooth process, this additional structure should be taken into account. We introduce a new class of neural networks that are shift invariant and preserve smoothness of the data: functional neural networks (FNNs). For this, we use methods from functional data analysis (FDA) to extend multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks to functional data. We propose different model architectures, show that the models outperform a benchmark model from FDA in terms of accuracy and successfully use FNNs to classify electroencephalography (EEG) data.

Riemannian submanifold optimization with momentum is computationally challenging because, to ensure that the iterates remain on the submanifold, we often need to solve difficult differential equations. Here, we simplify such difficulties for a class of sparse or structured symmetric positive-definite matrices with the affine-invariant metric. We do so by proposing a generalized version of the Riemannian normal coordinates that dynamically orthonormalizes the metric and locally converts the problem into an unconstrained problem in the Euclidean space. We use our approach to simplify existing approaches for structured covariances and develop matrix-inverse-free $2^\text{nd}$-order optimizers for deep learning with low precision by using only matrix multiplications. Code: //github.com/yorkerlin/StructuredNGD-DL

Neural networks have revolutionized the field of machine learning with increased predictive capability. In addition to improving the predictions of neural networks, there is a simultaneous demand for reliable uncertainty quantification on estimates made by machine learning methods such as neural networks. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are an important type of neural network with built-in capability for quantifying uncertainty. This paper discusses aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in BNNs and how they can be calculated. With an example dataset of images where the goal is to identify the amplitude of an event in the image, it is shown that epistemic uncertainty tends to be lower in images which are well-represented in the training dataset and tends to be high in images which are not well-represented. An algorithm for out-of-distribution (OoD) detection with BNN epistemic uncertainty is introduced along with various experiments demonstrating factors influencing the OoD detection capability in a BNN. The OoD detection capability with epistemic uncertainty is shown to be comparable to the OoD detection in the discriminator network of a generative adversarial network (GAN) with comparable network architecture.

We consider the problem of estimating the roughness of the volatility in a stochastic volatility model that arises as a nonlinear function of fractional Brownian motion with drift. To this end, we introduce a new estimator that measures the so-called roughness exponent of a continuous trajectory, based on discrete observations of its antiderivative. We provide conditions on the underlying trajectory under which our estimator converges in a strictly pathwise sense. Then we verify that these conditions are satisfied by almost every sample path of fractional Brownian motion (with drift). As a consequence, we obtain strong consistency theorems in the context of a large class of rough volatility models. Numerical simulations show that our estimation procedure performs well after passing to a scale-invariant modification of our estimator.

Informal reasoning ability is the ability to reason based on common sense, experience, and intuition.Humans use informal reasoning every day to extract the most influential elements for their decision-making from a large amount of life-like information.With the rapid development of language models, the realization of general artificial intelligence has emerged with hope. Given the outstanding informal reasoning ability of humans, how much informal reasoning ability language models have has not been well studied by scholars.In order to explore the gap between humans and language models in informal reasoning ability, this paper constructs a Detective Reasoning Benchmark, which is an assembly of 1,200 questions gathered from accessible online resources, aims at evaluating the model's informal reasoning ability in real-life context.Considering the improvement of the model's informal reasoning ability restricted by the lack of benchmark, we further propose a Self-Question Prompt Framework that mimics human thinking to enhance the model's informal reasoning ability.The goals of self-question are to find key elements, deeply investigate the connections between these elements, encourage the relationship between each element and the problem, and finally, require the model to reasonably answer the problem.The experimental results show that human performance greatly outperforms the SoTA Language Models in Detective Reasoning Benchmark.Besides, Self-Question is proven to be the most effective prompt engineering in improving GPT-4's informal reasoning ability, but it still does not even surpass the lowest score made by human participants.Upon acceptance of the paper, the source code for the benchmark will be made publicly accessible.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.