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In machine learning models, the estimation of errors is often complex due to distribution bias, particularly in spatial data such as those found in environmental studies. We introduce an approach based on the ideas of importance sampling to obtain an unbiased estimate of the target error. By taking into account difference between desirable error and available data, our method reweights errors at each sample point and neutralizes the shift. Importance sampling technique and kernel density estimation were used for reweighteing. We validate the effectiveness of our approach using artificial data that resemble real-world spatial datasets. Our findings demonstrate advantages of the proposed approach for the estimation of the target error, offering a solution to a distribution shift problem. Overall error of predictions dropped from 7% to just 2% and it gets smaller for larger samples.

This study presents a comparative analysis of three predictive models with an increasing degree of flexibility: hidden dynamic geostatistical models (HDGM), generalised additive mixed models (GAMM), and the random forest spatiotemporal kriging models (RFSTK). These models are evaluated for their effectiveness in predicting PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations in Lombardy (North Italy) from 2016 to 2020. Despite differing methodologies, all models demonstrate proficient capture of spatiotemporal patterns within air pollution data with similar out-of-sample performance. Furthermore, the study delves into station-specific analyses, revealing variable model performance contingent on localised conditions. Model interpretation, facilitated by parametric coefficient analysis and partial dependence plots, unveils consistent associations between predictor variables and PM$_{2.5}$ concentrations. Despite nuanced variations in modelling spatiotemporal correlations, all models effectively accounted for the underlying dependence. In summary, this study underscores the efficacy of conventional techniques in modelling correlated spatiotemporal data, concurrently highlighting the complementary potential of Machine Learning and classical statistical approaches.

Combinatorial optimization - a field of research addressing problems that feature strongly in a wealth of scientific and industrial contexts - has been identified as one of the core potential fields of applicability of quantum computers. It is still unclear, however, to what extent quantum algorithms can actually outperform classical algorithms for this type of problems. In this work, by resorting to computational learning theory and cryptographic notions, we prove that quantum computers feature an in-principle super-polynomial advantage over classical computers in approximating solutions to combinatorial optimization problems. Specifically, building on seminal work by Kearns and Valiant and introducing a new reduction, we identify special types of problems that are hard for classical computers to approximate up to polynomial factors. At the same time, we give a quantum algorithm that can efficiently approximate the optimal solution within a polynomial factor. The core of the quantum advantage discovered in this work is ultimately borrowed from Shor's quantum algorithm for factoring. Concretely, we prove a super-polynomial advantage for approximating special instances of the so-called integer programming problem. In doing so, we provide an explicit end-to-end construction for advantage bearing instances. This result shows that quantum devices have, in principle, the power to approximate combinatorial optimization solutions beyond the reach of classical efficient algorithms. Our results also give clear guidance on how to construct such advantage-bearing problem instances.

Linear systems with a tensor product structure arise naturally when considering the discretization of Laplace type differential equations or, more generally, multidimensional operators with separable coefficients. In this work, we focus on the numerical solution of linear systems of the form $$ \left(I\otimes \dots\otimes I \otimes A_1+\dots + A_d\otimes I \otimes\dots \otimes I\right)x=b,$$ where the matrices $A_t\in\mathbb R^{n\times n}$ are symmetric positive definite and belong to the class of hierarchically semiseparable matrices. We propose and analyze a nested divide-and-conquer scheme, based on the technology of low-rank updates, that attains the quasi-optimal computational cost $\mathcal O(n^d (\log(n) + \log(\kappa)^2 + \log(\kappa) \log(\epsilon^{-1})))$ where $\kappa$ is the condition number of the linear system, and $\epsilon$ the target accuracy. Our theoretical analysis highlights the role of inexactness in the nested calls of our algorithm and provides worst case estimates for the amplification of the residual norm. The performances are validated on 2D and 3D case studies.

We study scalable machine learning models for full event reconstruction in high-energy electron-positron collisions based on a highly granular detector simulation. Particle-flow (PF) reconstruction can be formulated as a supervised learning task using tracks and calorimeter clusters or hits. We compare a graph neural network and kernel-based transformer and demonstrate that both avoid quadratic memory allocation and computational cost while achieving realistic PF reconstruction. We show that hyperparameter tuning on a supercomputer significantly improves the physics performance of the models. We also demonstrate that the resulting model is highly portable across hardware processors, supporting Nvidia, AMD, and Intel Habana cards. Finally, we demonstrate that the model can be trained on highly granular inputs consisting of tracks and calorimeter hits, resulting in a competitive physics performance with the baseline. Datasets and software to reproduce the studies are published following the findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) principles.

This study focuses on the use of model and data fusion for improving the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) closure model for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions of separated flows. In particular, our goal is to develop of models that not-only assimilate sparse experimental data to improve performance in computational models, but also generalize to unseen cases by recovering classical SA behavior. We achieve our goals using data assimilation, namely the Ensemble Kalman Filtering approach (EnKF), to calibrate the coefficients of the SA model for separated flows. A holistic calibration strategy is implemented via a parameterization of the production, diffusion, and destruction terms. This calibration relies on the assimilation of experimental data collected velocity profiles, skin friction, and pressure coefficients for separated flows. Despite using of observational data from a single flow condition around a backward-facing step (BFS), the recalibrated SA model demonstrates generalization to other separated flows, including cases such as the 2D-bump and modified BFS. Significant improvement is observed in the quantities of interest, i.e., skin friction coefficient ($C_f$) and pressure coefficient ($C_p$) for each flow tested. Finally, it is also demonstrated that the newly proposed model recovers SA proficiency for external, unseparated flows, such as flow around a NACA-0012 airfoil without any danger of extrapolation, and that the individually calibrated terms in the SA model are targeted towards specific flow-physics wherein the calibrated production term improves the re-circulation zone while destruction improves the recovery zone.

The modeling and simulation of high-dimensional multiscale systems is a critical challenge across all areas of science and engineering. It is broadly believed that even with today's computer advances resolving all spatiotemporal scales described by the governing equations remains a remote target. This realization has prompted intense efforts to develop model order reduction techniques. In recent years, techniques based on deep recurrent neural networks have produced promising results for the modeling and simulation of complex spatiotemporal systems and offer large flexibility in model development as they can incorporate experimental and computational data. However, neural networks lack interpretability, which limits their utility and generalizability across complex systems. Here we propose a novel framework of Interpretable Learning Effective Dynamics (iLED) that offers comparable accuracy to state-of-the-art recurrent neural network-based approaches while providing the added benefit of interpretability. The iLED framework is motivated by Mori-Zwanzig and Koopman operator theory, which justifies the choice of the specific architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in simulations of three benchmark multiscale systems. Our results show that the iLED framework can generate accurate predictions and obtain interpretable dynamics, making it a promising approach for solving high-dimensional multiscale systems.

It is crucial to detect when an instance lies downright too far from the training samples for the machine learning model to be trusted, a challenge known as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. For neural networks, one approach to this task consists of learning a diversity of predictors that all can explain the training data. This information can be used to estimate the epistemic uncertainty at a given newly observed instance in terms of a measure of the disagreement of the predictions. Evaluation and certification of the ability of a method to detect OOD require specifying instances which are likely to occur in deployment yet on which no prediction is available. Focusing on regression tasks, we choose a simple yet insightful model for this OOD distribution and conduct an empirical evaluation of the ability of various methods to discriminate OOD samples from the data. Moreover, we exhibit evidence that a diversity of parameters may fail to translate to a diversity of predictors. Based on the choice of an OOD distribution, we propose a new way of estimating the entropy of a distribution on predictors based on nearest neighbors in function space. This leads to a variational objective which, combined with the family of distributions given by a generative neural network, systematically produces a diversity of predictors that provides a robust way to detect OOD samples.

This work is motivated by the study of local protein structure, which is defined by two variable dihedral angles that take values from probability distributions on the flat torus. Our goal is to provide the space $\mathcal{P}(\mathbb{R}^2/\mathbb{Z}^2)$ with a metric that quantifies local structural modifications due to changes in the protein sequence, and to define associated two-sample goodness-of-fit testing approaches. Due to its adaptability to the space geometry, we focus on the Wasserstein distance as a metric between distributions. We extend existing results of the theory of Optimal Transport to the $d$-dimensional flat torus $\mathbb{T}^d=\mathbb{R}^d/\mathbb{Z}^d$, in particular a Central Limit Theorem. Moreover, we propose different approaches for two-sample goodness-of-fit testing for the one and two-dimensional case, based on the Wasserstein distance. We prove their validity and consistency. We provide an implementation of these tests in \textsf{R}. Their performance is assessed by numerical experiments on synthetic data and illustrated by an application to protein structure data.