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Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations, it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with the surrogate, but this can result in bias and poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and produce more accurate uncertainty quantification. We do this by optimizing a transform of the approximate posterior that maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We demonstrate good performance of the new method on several examples of increasing complexity.

We address speech enhancement based on variational autoencoders, which involves learning a speech prior distribution in the time-frequency (TF) domain. A zero-mean complex-valued Gaussian distribution is usually assumed for the generative model, where the speech information is encoded in the variance as a function of a latent variable. In contrast to this commonly used approach, we propose a weighted variance generative model, where the contribution of each spectrogram time-frame in parameter learning is weighted. We impose a Gamma prior distribution on the weights, which would effectively lead to a Student's t-distribution instead of Gaussian for speech generative modeling. We develop efficient training and speech enhancement algorithms based on the proposed generative model. Our experimental results on spectrogram auto-encoding and speech enhancement demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach compared to the standard unweighted variance model.

Despite the continuous development of the different operational ensemble prediction systems over the past decades, ensemble forecasts still might suffer from lack of calibration and/or display systematic bias, thus require some post-processing to improve their forecast skill. Here we focus on visibility, which quantity plays a crucial role e.g. in aviation and road safety or in ship navigation, and propose a parametric model where the predictive distribution is a mixture of a gamma and a truncated normal distribution, both right censored at the maximal reported visibility value. The new model is evaluated in two case studies based on visibility ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts covering two distinct domains in Central and Western Europe and two different time periods. The results of the case studies indicate that climatology is substantially superior to the raw ensemble; nevertheless, the forecast skill can be further improved by post-processing, at least for short lead times. Moreover, the proposed mixture model consistently outperforms the Bayesian model averaging approach used as reference post-processing technique.

We present a streamlined and simplified exponential lower bound on the length of proofs in intuitionistic implicational logic, adapted to Gordeev and Haeusler's dag-like natural deduction.

Various processes can be modelled as quasi-reaction systems of stochastic differential equations, such as cell differentiation and disease spreading. Since the underlying data of particle interactions, such as reactions between proteins or contacts between people, are typically unobserved, statistical inference of the parameters driving these systems is developed from concentration data measuring each unit in the system over time. While observing the continuous time process at a time scale as fine as possible should in theory help with parameter estimation, the existing Local Linear Approximation (LLA) methods fail in this case, due to numerical instability caused by small changes of the system at successive time points. On the other hand, one may be able to reconstruct the underlying unobserved interactions from the observed count data. Motivated by this, we first formalise the latent event history model underlying the observed count process. We then propose a computationally efficient Expectation-Maximation algorithm for parameter estimation, with an extended Kalman filtering procedure for the prediction of the latent states. A simulation study shows the performance of the proposed method and highlights the settings where it is particularly advantageous compared to the existing LLA approaches. Finally, we present an illustration of the methodology on the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

This proposed model introduces novel deep learning methodologies. The objective here is to create a reliable intrusion detection mechanism to help identify malicious attacks. Deep learning based solution framework is developed consisting of three approaches. The first approach is Long-Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN) with seven optimizer functions such as adamax, SGD, adagrad, adam, RMSprop, nadam and adadelta. The model is evaluated on NSL-KDD dataset and classified multi attack classification. The model has outperformed with adamax optimizer in terms of accuracy, detection rate and low false alarm rate. The results of LSTM-RNN with adamax optimizer is compared with existing shallow machine and deep learning models in terms of accuracy, detection rate and low false alarm rate. The multi model methodology consisting of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long-Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN), and Deep Neural Network (DNN). The multi models are evaluated on bench mark datasets such as KDD99, NSL-KDD, and UNSWNB15 datasets. The models self-learnt the features and classifies the attack classes as multi-attack classification. The models RNN, and LSTM-RNN provide considerable performance compared to other existing methods on KDD99 and NSL-KDD dataset

This note introduces an unsupervised learning algorithm to debug errors in finite element (FE) simulation models and details how it was productionised. The algorithm clusters degrees of freedom in the FE model using numerical properties of the adjacency of its stiffness matrix. The algorithm has been deployed as a tool called `Model Stability Analysis' tool within the commercial structural FE suite Oasys GSA (www.oasys-software.com/gsa). It has been used successfully by end-users for debugging real world FE models and we present examples of the tool in action.

We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.

Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.