Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations, it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with the surrogate, but this can result in bias and poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and produce more accurate uncertainty quantification. We do this by optimizing a transform of the approximate posterior that maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We demonstrate good performance of the new method on several examples of increasing complexity.
相關內容
The log-rank conjecture, a longstanding problem in communication complexity, has persistently eluded resolution for decades. Consequently, some recent efforts have focused on potential approaches for establishing the conjecture in the special case of XOR functions, where the communication matrix is lifted from a boolean function, and the rank of the matrix equals the Fourier sparsity of the function, which is the number of its nonzero Fourier coefficients. In this note, we refute two conjectures. The first has origins in Montanaro and Osborne (arXiv'09) and is considered in Tsang et al. (FOCS'13), and the second one is due to Mande and Sanyal (FSTTCS'20). These conjectures were proposed in order to improve the best-known bound of Lovett (STOC'14) regarding the log-rank conjecture in the special case of XOR functions. Both conjectures speculate that the set of nonzero Fourier coefficients of the boolean function has some strong additive structure. We refute these conjectures by constructing two specific boolean functions tailored to each.
With the proliferation of ever more complicated Deep Learning architectures, data synthesis is a highly promising technique to address the demand of data-hungry models. However, reliably assessing the quality of a 'synthesiser' model's output is an open research question with significant associated risks for high-stake domains. To address this challenge, we have designed a unique confident data synthesis algorithm that introduces statistical confidence guarantees through a novel extension of the Conformal Prediction framework. We support our proposed algorithm with theoretical proofs and an extensive empirical evaluation of five benchmark datasets. To show our approach's versatility on ubiquitous real-world challenges, the datasets were carefully selected for their variety of difficult characteristics: low sample count, class imbalance and non-separability, and privacy-sensitive data. In all trials, training sets extended with our confident synthesised data performed at least as well as the original, and frequently significantly improved Deep Learning performance by up to +65% F1-score.
This article mainly introduces how to use various basic emulators to form a combined emulator in the Jiutian Intelligence Network Simulation Platform to realize simulation service functions in different business scenarios. Among them, the combined emulator is included. The business scenarios include different practical applications such as multi-objective antenna optimization, high traffic of business, CSI (channel state information) compression feedback, etc.
In the study of the brain, there is a hypothesis that sparse coding is realized in information representation of external stimuli, which is experimentally confirmed for visual stimulus recently. However, unlike the specific functional region in the brain, sparse coding in information processing in the whole brain has not been clarified sufficiently. In this study, we investigate the validity of sparse coding in the whole human brain by applying various matrix factorization methods to functional magnetic resonance imaging data of neural activities in the whole human brain. The result suggests sparse coding hypothesis in information representation in the whole human brain, because extracted features from sparse MF method, SparsePCA or MOD under high sparsity setting, or approximate sparse MF method, FastICA, can classify external visual stimuli more accurately than non-sparse MF method or sparse MF method under low sparsity setting.
Modeling excess remains to be an important topic in insurance data modeling. Among the alternatives of modeling excess, the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) framework with Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is regarded as an efficient approach due to its flexibility. However, the selection of an appropriate threshold for such framework is a major difficulty. To address such difficulty, we applied several accumulation tests along with Anderson-Darling test to determine an optimal threshold. Based on the selected thresholds, the fitted GPD with the estimated quantiles can be found. We applied the procedure to the well-known Norwegian Fire Insurance data and constructed the confidence intervals for the Value-at-Risks (VaR). The accumulation test approach provides satisfactory performance in modeling the high quantiles of Norwegian Fire Insurance data compared to the previous graphical methods.
We present a novel deep learning method for estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov processes through discrete sampling. Departing from conventional machine learning, our approach reframes parameter approximation as an optimization problem using the maximum likelihood approach. Experimental validation focuses on parameter estimation in multivariate regression and stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Theoretical results show that the real solution is close to SDE with parameters approximated using our neural network-derived under specific conditions. Our work contributes to SDE-based model parameter estimation, offering a versatile tool for diverse fields.
There are many unsolved problems in vascular image segmentation, including vascular structural connectivity, scarce branches and missing small vessels. Obtaining vessels that preserve their correct topological structures is currently a crucial research issue, as it provides an overall view of one vascular system. In order to preserve the topology and accuracy of vessel segmentation, we proposed a novel Morphology Edge Attention Network (MEA-Net) for the segmentation of vessel-like structures, and an Optimal Geometric Matching Connection (OGMC) model to connect the broken vessel segments. The MEA-Net has an edge attention module that improves the segmentation of edges and small objects by morphology operation extracting boundary voxels on multi-scale. The OGMC model uses the concept of curve touching from differential geometry to filter out fragmented vessel endpoints, and then employs minimal surfaces to determine the optimal connection order between blood vessels. Finally, we calculate the geodesic to repair missing vessels under a given Riemannian metric. Our method achieves superior or competitive results compared to state-of-the-art methods on four datasets of 3D vascular segmentation tasks, both effectively reducing vessel broken and increasing vessel branch richness, yielding blood vessels with a more precise topological structure.
Active reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS) is a new RIS architecture that can reflect and amplify communication signals. It can provide enhanced performance gain compared to the conventional passive RIS systems that can only reflect the signals. On the other hand, the design problem of active RIS-aided systems is more challenging than the passive RIS-aided systems and its efficient algorithms are less studied. In this paper, we consider the sum rate maximization problem in the multiuser massive multiple-input single-output (MISO) downlink with the aid of a large-scale active RIS. Existing approaches usually resort to general optimization solvers and can be computationally prohibitive in the considered settings. We propose an efficient block successive upper bound minimization (BSUM) method, of which each step has a (semi) closed-form update. Thus, the proposed algorithm has an attractive low per-iteration complexity. By simulation, our proposed algorithm consumes much less computation than the existing approaches. In particular, when the MIMO and/or RIS sizes are large, our proposed algorithm can be orders-of-magnitude faster than existing approaches.
Rule-based reasoning is an essential part of human intelligence prominently formalized in artificial intelligence research via logic programs. Describing complex objects as the composition of elementary ones is a common strategy in computer science and science in general. The author has recently introduced the sequential composition of logic programs in the context of logic-based analogical reasoning and learning in logic programming. Motivated by these applications, in this paper we construct a qualitative and algebraic notion of syntactic logic program similarity from sequential decompositions of programs. We then show how similarity can be used to answer queries across different domains via a one-step reduction. In a broader sense, this paper is a further step towards an algebraic theory of logic programming.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191