Differential privacy (DP) data synthesizers support public release of sensitive information, offering theoretical guarantees for privacy but limited evidence of utility in practical settings. Utility is typically measured as the error on representative proxy tasks, such as descriptive statistics, accuracy of trained classifiers, or performance over a query workload. The ability for these results to generalize to practitioners' experience has been questioned in a number of settings, including the U.S. Census. In this paper, we propose an evaluation methodology for synthetic data that avoids assumptions about the representativeness of proxy tasks, instead measuring the likelihood that published conclusions would change had the authors used synthetic data, a condition we call epistemic parity. Our methodology consists of reproducing empirical conclusions of peer-reviewed papers on real, publicly available data, then re-running these experiments a second time on DP synthetic data, and comparing the results. We instantiate our methodology over a benchmark of recent peer-reviewed papers that analyze public datasets in the ICPSR repository. We model quantitative claims computationally to automate the experimental workflow, and model qualitative claims by reproducing visualizations and comparing the results manually. We then generate DP synthetic datasets using multiple state-of-the-art mechanisms, and estimate the likelihood that these conclusions will hold. We find that state-of-the-art DP synthesizers are able to achieve high epistemic parity for several papers in our benchmark. However, some papers, and particularly some specific findings, are difficult to reproduce for any of the synthesizers. We advocate for a new class of mechanisms that favor stronger utility guarantees and offer privacy protection with a focus on application-specific threat models and risk-assessment.
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Predict, Refine, Synthesize: Self-Guiding Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).
Modern mainstream financial theory is underpinned by the efficient market hypothesis, which posits the rapid incorporation of relevant information into asset pricing. Limited prior studies in the operational research literature have investigated tests designed for random number generators to check for these informational efficiencies. Treating binary daily returns as a hardware random number generator analogue, tests of overlapping permutations have indicated that these time series feature idiosyncratic recurrent patterns. Contrary to prior studies, we split our analysis into two streams at the annual and company level, and investigate longer-term efficiency over a larger time frame for Nasdaq-listed public companies to diminish the effects of trading noise and allow the market to realistically digest new information. Our results demonstrate that information efficiency varies across years and reflects large-scale market impacts such as financial crises. We also show the proximity to results of a well-tested pseudo-random number generator, discuss the distinction between theoretical and practical market efficiency, and find that the statistical qualification of stock-separated returns in support of the efficient market hypothesis is dependent on the driving factor of small inefficient subsets that skew market assessments.
In inverse problems, one attempts to infer spatially variable functions from indirect measurements of a system. To practitioners of inverse problems, the concept of "information" is familiar when discussing key questions such as which parts of the function can be inferred accurately and which cannot. For example, it is generally understood that we can identify system parameters accurately only close to detectors, or along ray paths between sources and detectors, because we have "the most information" for these places. Although referenced in many publications, the "information" that is invoked in such contexts is not a well understood and clearly defined quantity. Herein, we present a definition of information density that is based on the variance of coefficients as derived from a Bayesian reformulation of the inverse problem. We then discuss three areas in which this information density can be useful in practical algorithms for the solution of inverse problems, and illustrate the usefulness in one of these areas -- how to choose the discretization mesh for the function to be reconstructed -- using numerical experiments.
Many food products involve mixtures of ingredients, where the mixtures can be expressed as combinations of ingredient proportions. In many cases, the quality and the consumer preference may also depend on the way in which the mixtures are processed. The processing is generally defined by the settings of one or more process variables. Experimental designs studying the joint impact of the mixture ingredient proportions and the settings of the process variables are called mixture-process variable experiments. In this article, we show how to combine mixture-process variable experiments and discrete choice experiments, to quantify and model consumer preferences for food products that can be viewed as processed mixtures. First, we describe the modeling of data from such combined experiments. Next, we describe how to generate D- and I-optimal designs for choice experiments involving mixtures and process variables, and we compare the two kinds of designs using two examples.
Federated learning (FL) has enabled multiple data owners (a.k.a. FL clients) to train machine learning models collaboratively without revealing private data. Since the FL server can only engage a limited number of clients in each training round, FL client selection has become an important research problem. Existing approaches generally focus on either enhancing FL model performance or enhancing the fair treatment of FL clients. The problem of balancing performance and fairness considerations when selecting FL clients remains open. To address this problem, we propose the Fairness-aware Federated Client Selection (FairFedCS) approach. Based on Lyapunov optimization, it dynamically adjusts FL clients' selection probabilities by jointly considering their reputations, times of participation in FL tasks and contributions to the resulting model performance. By not using threshold-based reputation filtering, it provides FL clients with opportunities to redeem their reputations after a perceived poor performance, thereby further enhancing fair client treatment. Extensive experiments based on real-world multimedia datasets show that FairFedCS achieves 19.6% higher fairness and 0.73% higher test accuracy on average than the best-performing state-of-the-art approach.
Since the 1950s, machine translation (MT) has become one of the important tasks of AI and development, and has experienced several different periods and stages of development, including rule-based methods, statistical methods, and recently proposed neural network-based learning methods. Accompanying these staged leaps is the evaluation research and development of MT, especially the important role of evaluation methods in statistical translation and neural translation research. The evaluation task of MT is not only to evaluate the quality of machine translation, but also to give timely feedback to machine translation researchers on the problems existing in machine translation itself, how to improve and how to optimise. In some practical application fields, such as in the absence of reference translations, the quality estimation of machine translation plays an important role as an indicator to reveal the credibility of automatically translated target languages. This report mainly includes the following contents: a brief history of machine translation evaluation (MTE), the classification of research methods on MTE, and the the cutting-edge progress, including human evaluation, automatic evaluation, and evaluation of evaluation methods (meta-evaluation). Manual evaluation and automatic evaluation include reference-translation based and reference-translation independent participation; automatic evaluation methods include traditional n-gram string matching, models applying syntax and semantics, and deep learning models; evaluation of evaluation methods includes estimating the credibility of human evaluations, the reliability of the automatic evaluation, the reliability of the test set, etc. Advances in cutting-edge evaluation methods include task-based evaluation, using pre-trained language models based on big data, and lightweight optimisation models using distillation techniques.
This paper focuses on two fundamental tasks of graph analysis: community detection and node representation learning, which capture the global and local structures of graphs, respectively. In the current literature, these two tasks are usually independently studied while they are actually highly correlated. We propose a probabilistic generative model called vGraph to learn community membership and node representation collaboratively. Specifically, we assume that each node can be represented as a mixture of communities, and each community is defined as a multinomial distribution over nodes. Both the mixing coefficients and the community distribution are parameterized by the low-dimensional representations of the nodes and communities. We designed an effective variational inference algorithm which regularizes the community membership of neighboring nodes to be similar in the latent space. Experimental results on multiple real-world graphs show that vGraph is very effective in both community detection and node representation learning, outperforming many competitive baselines in both tasks. We show that the framework of vGraph is quite flexible and can be easily extended to detect hierarchical communities.
How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.
High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.
While it is nearly effortless for humans to quickly assess the perceptual similarity between two images, the underlying processes are thought to be quite complex. Despite this, the most widely used perceptual metrics today, such as PSNR and SSIM, are simple, shallow functions, and fail to account for many nuances of human perception. Recently, the deep learning community has found that features of the VGG network trained on the ImageNet classification task has been remarkably useful as a training loss for image synthesis. But how perceptual are these so-called "perceptual losses"? What elements are critical for their success? To answer these questions, we introduce a new Full Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA) dataset of perceptual human judgments, orders of magnitude larger than previous datasets. We systematically evaluate deep features across different architectures and tasks and compare them with classic metrics. We find that deep features outperform all previous metrics by huge margins. More surprisingly, this result is not restricted to ImageNet-trained VGG features, but holds across different deep architectures and levels of supervision (supervised, self-supervised, or even unsupervised). Our results suggest that perceptual similarity is an emergent property shared across deep visual representations.
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