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We study the problem of learning classification functions from noiseless training samples, under the assumption that the decision boundary is of a certain regularity. We establish universal lower bounds for this estimation problem, for general classes of continuous decision boundaries. For the class of locally Barron-regular decision boundaries, we find that the optimal estimation rates are essentially independent of the underlying dimension and can be realized by empirical risk minimization methods over a suitable class of deep neural networks. These results are based on novel estimates of the $L^1$ and $L^\infty$ entropies of the class of Barron-regular functions.

Predictive monitoring of business processes is a subfield of process mining that aims to predict, among other things, the characteristics of the next event or the sequence of next events. Although multiple approaches based on deep learning have been proposed, mainly recurrent neural networks and convolutional neural networks, none of them really exploit the structural information available in process models. This paper proposes an approach based on graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks that uses information directly from the process model. An experimental evaluation on real-life event logs shows that our approach is more consistent and outperforms the current state-of-the-art approaches.

Multivariate Analysis (MVA) comprises a family of well-known methods for feature extraction which exploit correlations among input variables representing the data. One important property that is enjoyed by most such methods is uncorrelation among the extracted features. Recently, regularized versions of MVA methods have appeared in the literature, mainly with the goal to gain interpretability of the solution. In these cases, the solutions can no longer be obtained in a closed manner, and more complex optimization methods that rely on the iteration of two steps are frequently used. This paper recurs to an alternative approach to solve efficiently this iterative problem. The main novelty of this approach lies in preserving several properties of the original methods, most notably the uncorrelation of the extracted features. Under this framework, we propose a novel method that takes advantage of the l-21 norm to perform variable selection during the feature extraction process. Experimental results over different problems corroborate the advantages of the proposed formulation in comparison to state of the art formulations.

Social network data are relational data recorded among a group of actors, interacting in different contexts. Often, the same set of actors can be characterized by multiple social relations, captured by a multidimensional network. A common situation is that of colleagues working in the same institution, whose social interactions can be defined on professional and personal levels. In addition, individuals in a network tend to interact more frequently with similar others, naturally creating communities. Latent space models for network data are useful to recover clustering of the actors, as they allow to represent similarities between them by their positions and relative distances in an interpretable low dimensional social space. We propose the infinite latent position cluster model for multidimensional network data, which enables model-based clustering of actors interacting across multiple social dimensions. The model is based on a Bayesian nonparametric framework, that allows to perform automatic inference on the clustering allocations, the number of clusters, and the latent social space. The method is tested on simulated data experiments, and it is employed to investigate the presence of communities in two multidimensional networks recording relationships of different types among colleagues.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

Leveraging biased click data for optimizing learning to rank systems has been a popular approach in information retrieval. Because click data is often noisy and biased, a variety of methods have been proposed to construct unbiased learning to rank (ULTR) algorithms for the learning of unbiased ranking models. Among them, automatic unbiased learning to rank (AutoULTR) algorithms that jointly learn user bias models (i.e., propensity models) with unbiased rankers have received a lot of attention due to their superior performance and low deployment cost in practice. Despite their differences in theories and algorithm design, existing studies on ULTR usually use uni-variate ranking functions to score each document or result independently. On the other hand, recent advances in context-aware learning-to-rank models have shown that multivariate scoring functions, which read multiple documents together and predict their ranking scores jointly, are more powerful than uni-variate ranking functions in ranking tasks with human-annotated relevance labels. Whether such superior performance would hold in ULTR with noisy data, however, is mostly unknown. In this paper, we investigate existing multivariate scoring functions and AutoULTR algorithms in theory and prove that permutation invariance is a crucial factor that determines whether a context-aware learning-to-rank model could be applied to existing AutoULTR framework. Our experiments with synthetic clicks on two large-scale benchmark datasets show that AutoULTR models with permutation-invariant multivariate scoring functions significantly outperform those with uni-variate scoring functions and permutation-variant multivariate scoring functions.

Because of continuous advances in mathematical programing, Mix Integer Optimization has become a competitive vis-a-vis popular regularization method for selecting features in regression problems. The approach exhibits unquestionable foundational appeal and versatility, but also poses important challenges. We tackle these challenges, reducing computational burden when tuning the sparsity bound (a parameter which is critical for effectiveness) and improving performance in the presence of feature collinearity and of signals that vary in nature and strength. Importantly, we render the approach efficient and effective in applications of realistic size and complexity - without resorting to relaxations or heuristics in the optimization, or abandoning rigorous cross-validation tuning. Computational viability and improved performance in subtler scenarios is achieved with a multi-pronged blueprint, leveraging characteristics of the Mixed Integer Programming framework and by means of whitening, a data pre-processing step.

Robust estimation is much more challenging in high dimensions than it is in one dimension: Most techniques either lead to intractable optimization problems or estimators that can tolerate only a tiny fraction of errors. Recent work in theoretical computer science has shown that, in appropriate distributional models, it is possible to robustly estimate the mean and covariance with polynomial time algorithms that can tolerate a constant fraction of corruptions, independent of the dimension. However, the sample and time complexity of these algorithms is prohibitively large for high-dimensional applications. In this work, we address both of these issues by establishing sample complexity bounds that are optimal, up to logarithmic factors, as well as giving various refinements that allow the algorithms to tolerate a much larger fraction of corruptions. Finally, we show on both synthetic and real data that our algorithms have state-of-the-art performance and suddenly make high-dimensional robust estimation a realistic possibility.

During recent years, active learning has evolved into a popular paradigm for utilizing user's feedback to improve accuracy of learning algorithms. Active learning works by selecting the most informative sample among unlabeled data and querying the label of that point from user. Many different methods such as uncertainty sampling and minimum risk sampling have been utilized to select the most informative sample in active learning. Although many active learning algorithms have been proposed so far, most of them work with binary or multi-class classification problems and therefore can not be applied to problems in which only samples from one class as well as a set of unlabeled data are available. Such problems arise in many real-world situations and are known as the problem of learning from positive and unlabeled data. In this paper we propose an active learning algorithm that can work when only samples of one class as well as a set of unlabelled data are available. Our method works by separately estimating probability desnity of positive and unlabeled points and then computing expected value of informativeness to get rid of a hyper-parameter and have a better measure of informativeness./ Experiments and empirical analysis show promising results compared to other similar methods.

This project addresses the problem of sentiment analysis in twitter; that is classifying tweets according to the sentiment expressed in them: positive, negative or neutral. Twitter is an online micro-blogging and social-networking platform which allows users to write short status updates of maximum length 140 characters. It is a rapidly expanding service with over 200 million registered users - out of which 100 million are active users and half of them log on twitter on a daily basis - generating nearly 250 million tweets per day. Due to this large amount of usage we hope to achieve a reflection of public sentiment by analysing the sentiments expressed in the tweets. Analysing the public sentiment is important for many applications such as firms trying to find out the response of their products in the market, predicting political elections and predicting socioeconomic phenomena like stock exchange. The aim of this project is to develop a functional classifier for accurate and automatic sentiment classification of an unknown tweet stream.