Dependence is undoubtedly a central concept in statistics. Though, it proves difficult to locate in the literature a formal definition which goes beyond the self-evident 'dependence = non-independence'. This absence has allowed the term 'dependence' and its declination to be used vaguely and indiscriminately for qualifying a variety of disparate notions, leading to numerous incongruities. For example, the classical Pearson's, Spearman's or Kendall's correlations are widely regarded as 'dependence measures' of major interest, in spite of returning 0 in some cases of deterministic relationships between the variables at play, evidently not measuring dependence at all. Arguing that research on such a fundamental topic would benefit from a slightly more rigid framework, this paper suggests a general definition of the dependence between two random variables defined on the same probability space. Natural enough for aligning with intuition, that definition is still sufficiently precise for allowing unequivocal identification of a 'universal' representation of the dependence structure of any bivariate distribution. Links between this representation and familiar concepts are highlighted, and ultimately, the idea of a dependence measure based on that universal representation is explored and shown to satisfy Renyi's postulates.
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We characterise the learning of a mixture of two clouds of data points with generic centroids via empirical risk minimisation in the high dimensional regime, under the assumptions of generic convex loss and convex regularisation. Each cloud of data points is obtained by sampling from a possibly uncountable superposition of Gaussian distributions, whose variance has a generic probability density $\varrho$. Our analysis covers therefore a large family of data distributions, including the case of power-law-tailed distributions with no covariance. We study the generalisation performance of the obtained estimator, we analyse the role of regularisation, and the dependence of the separability transition on the distribution scale parameters.
Consensus is one of the most fundamental problems in distributed computing. This paper studies the consensus problem in a synchronous dynamic directed network, in which communication is controlled by an oblivious message adversary. The question when consensus is possible in this model has already been studied thoroughly in the literature from a combinatorial perspective, and is known to be challenging. This paper presents a topological perspective on consensus solvability under oblivious message adversaries, which provides interesting new insights. Our main contribution is a topological characterization of consensus solvability, which also leads to explicit decision procedures. Our approach is based on the novel notion of a communication pseudosphere, which can be seen as the message-passing analog of the well-known standard chromatic subdivision for wait-free shared memory systems. We further push the elegance and expressiveness of the "geometric" reasoning enabled by the topological approach by dealing with uninterpreted complexes, which considerably reduce the size of the protocol complex, and by labeling facets with information flow arrows, which give an intuitive meaning to the implicit epistemic status of the faces in a protocol complex.
Reliable application of machine learning-based decision systems in the wild is one of the major challenges currently investigated by the field. A large portion of established approaches aims to detect erroneous predictions by means of assigning confidence scores. This confidence may be obtained by either quantifying the model's predictive uncertainty, learning explicit scoring functions, or assessing whether the input is in line with the training distribution. Curiously, while these approaches all state to address the same eventual goal of detecting failures of a classifier upon real-life application, they currently constitute largely separated research fields with individual evaluation protocols, which either exclude a substantial part of relevant methods or ignore large parts of relevant failure sources. In this work, we systematically reveal current pitfalls caused by these inconsistencies and derive requirements for a holistic and realistic evaluation of failure detection. To demonstrate the relevance of this unified perspective, we present a large-scale empirical study for the first time enabling benchmarking confidence scoring functions w.r.t all relevant methods and failure sources. The revelation of a simple softmax response baseline as the overall best performing method underlines the drastic shortcomings of current evaluation in the abundance of publicized research on confidence scoring. Code and trained models are at //github.com/IML-DKFZ/fd-shifts.
An information-theoretic estimator is proposed to assess the global identifiability of statistical models with practical consideration. The framework is formulated in a Bayesian statistical setting which is the foundation for parameter estimation under aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. No assumptions are made about the structure of the statistical model or the prior distribution while constructing the estimator. The estimator has the following notable advantages: first, no controlled experiment or data is required to conduct the practical identifiability analysis; second, different forms of uncertainties, such as model form, parameter, or measurement can be taken into account; third, the identifiability analysis is global, rather than being dependent on a realization of parameters. If an individual parameter has low identifiability, it can belong to an identifiable subset such that parameters within the subset have a functional relationship and thus have a combined effect on the statistical model. The practical identifiability framework is extended to highlight the dependencies between parameter pairs that emerge a posteriori to find identifiable parameter subsets. Examining the practical identifiability of an individual parameter along with its dependencies with other parameters is informative for an estimation-centric parameterization and model selection. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a linear Gaussian model and a non-linear methane-air reduced kinetics model.
Gaussian graphical models can capture complex dependency structures among variables. For such models, Bayesian inference is attractive as it provides principled ways to incorporate prior information and to quantify uncertainty through the posterior distribution. However, posterior computation under the conjugate G-Wishart prior distribution on the precision matrix is expensive for general non-decomposable graphs. We therefore propose a new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method named the G-Wishart weighted proposal algorithm (WWA). WWA's distinctive features include delayed acceptance MCMC, Gibbs updates for the precision matrix and an informed proposal distribution on the graph space that enables embarrassingly parallel computations. Compared to existing approaches, WWA reduces the frequency of the relatively expensive sampling from the G-Wishart distribution. This results in faster MCMC convergence, improved MCMC mixing and reduced computing time. Numerical studies on simulated and real data show that WWA provides a more efficient tool for posterior inference than competing state-of-the-art MCMC algorithms.
Recent years have seen a surge of interest in learning high-level causal representations from low-level image pairs under interventions. Yet, existing efforts are largely limited to simple synthetic settings that are far away from real-world problems. In this paper, we present Causal Triplet, a causal representation learning benchmark featuring not only visually more complex scenes, but also two crucial desiderata commonly overlooked in previous works: (i) an actionable counterfactual setting, where only certain object-level variables allow for counterfactual observations whereas others do not; (ii) an interventional downstream task with an emphasis on out-of-distribution robustness from the independent causal mechanisms principle. Through extensive experiments, we find that models built with the knowledge of disentangled or object-centric representations significantly outperform their distributed counterparts. However, recent causal representation learning methods still struggle to identify such latent structures, indicating substantial challenges and opportunities for future work. Our code and datasets will be available at //sites.google.com/view/causaltriplet.
In recent years, distributional language representation models have demonstrated great practical success. At the same time, the need for interpretability has elicited questions on their intrinsic properties and capabilities. Crucially, distributional models are often inconsistent when dealing with compositional phenomena in natural language, which has significant implications for their safety and fairness. Despite this, most current research on compositionality is directed towards improving their performance on similarity tasks only. This work takes a different approach, and proposes a methodology for measuring compositional behavior in contemporary language models. Specifically, we focus on adjectival modifier phenomena in adjective-noun phrases. We introduce three novel tests of compositional behavior inspired by Montague semantics. Our experimental results indicate that current neural language models behave according to the expected linguistic theories to a limited extent only. This raises the question of whether these language models are not able to capture the semantic properties we evaluated, or whether linguistic theories from Montagovian tradition would not match the expected capabilities of distributional models.
Deep latent generative models have attracted increasing attention due to the capacity of combining the strengths of deep learning and probabilistic models in an elegant way. The data representations learned with the models are often continuous and dense. However in many applications, sparse representations are expected, such as learning sparse high dimensional embedding of data in an unsupervised setting, and learning multi-labels from thousands of candidate tags in a supervised setting. In some scenarios, there could be further restriction on degree of sparsity: the number of non-zero features of a representation cannot be larger than a pre-defined threshold $L_0$. In this paper we propose a sparse deep latent generative model SDLGM to explicitly model degree of sparsity and thus enable to learn the sparse structure of the data with the quantified sparsity constraint. The resulting sparsity of a representation is not fixed, but fits to the observation itself under the pre-defined restriction. In particular, we introduce to each observation $i$ an auxiliary random variable $L_i$, which models the sparsity of its representation. The sparse representations are then generated with a two-step sampling process via two Gumbel-Softmax distributions. For inference and learning, we develop an amortized variational method based on MC gradient estimator. The resulting sparse representations are differentiable with backpropagation. The experimental evaluation on multiple datasets for unsupervised and supervised learning problems shows the benefits of the proposed method.
We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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