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With the availability of granular geographical data, social scientists are increasingly interested in examining how residential neighborhoods are formed and how they influence attitudes and behavior. To facilitate such studies, we develop an easy-to-use online survey instrument that allows respondents to draw their neighborhoods on a map. We then propose a statistical model to analyze how the characteristics of respondents, relevant local areas, and their interactions shape subjective neighborhoods. The model also generates out-of-sample predictions of one's neighborhood given these observed characteristics. We illustrate the proposed methodology by conducting a survey among registered voters in Miami, New York City, and Phoenix. We find that across these cities voters are more likely to include same-race and co-partisan census blocks in their neighborhoods. Net of other factors, White respondents are 6.1 to 16.9 percentage points more likely to include in their neighborhoods a census block composed entirely of White residents compared to one with no White residents. Similarly, Democratic and Republican respondents are 8.6 to 19.2 percentage points more likely to include an entirely co-partisan census block compared to one consisting entirely of out-partisans. Co-partisanship exhibits a similar, independent, influence. We also show that our model provides more accurate out-of-sample predictions than the standard distance-based measures of neighborhoods. Open-source software is available for implementing the proposed methodology.

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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議,是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列,由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來,模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面,從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景,包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇,參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會,并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。 官網鏈接: · 哈爾濱工業大學(HIT) · 混合時間 · MCMC · 混合 ·
2021 年 12 月 26 日

Mallows permutation model, introduced by Mallows in statistical ranking theory, is a class of non-uniform probability measures on the symmetric group $S_n$. The model depends on a distance metric $d(\sigma,\tau)$ on $S_n$, which can be chosen from a host of metrics on permutations. In this paper, we focus on Mallows permutation models with $L^1$ and $L^2$ distances, respectively known in the statistics literature as Spearman's footrule and Spearman's rank correlation. Unlike most of the random permutation models that have been analyzed in the literature, Mallows permutation models with $L^1$ and $L^2$ distances do not have an explicit expression for their normalizing constants. This poses challenges to the task of sampling from these Mallows models. In this paper, we consider hit and run algorithms for sampling from both models. Hit and run algorithms are a unifying class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms including the celebrated Swendsen-Wang and data augmentation algorithms. For both models, we show order $\log{n}$ mixing time upper bounds for the hit and run algorithms. This demonstrates much faster mixing of the hit and run algorithms compared to local MCMC algorithms such as the Metropolis algorithm. The proof of the results on mixing times is based on the path coupling technique, for which a novel coupling for permutations with one-sided restrictions is involved. Extensions of the hit and run algorithms to weighted versions of the above models, a two-parameter permutation model that involves the $L^1$ distance and Cayley distance, and lattice permutation models in dimensions greater than or equal to $2$ are also discussed. The order $\log{n}$ mixing time upper bound pertains to the two-parameter permutation model.

We study the problem of online tree exploration by a deterministic mobile agent. Our main objective is to establish what features of the model of the mobile agent and the environment allow linear exploration time. We study agents that, upon entering to a node, do not receive as input the edge via which they entered. In such a model, deterministic memoryless exploration is infeasible, hence the agent needs to be allowed to use some memory. The memory can be located at the agent or at each node. The existing lower bounds show that if the memory is either only at the agent or only at the nodes, then the exploration needs superlinear time. We show that tree exploration in dual-memory model, with constant memory at the agent and logarithmic at each node is possible in linear time when one of two additional features is present: fixed initial state of the memory at each node (so called clean memory) or a single movable token. We present two algorithms working in linear time for arbitrary trees in these two models. On the other hand, in our lower bound we show that if the agent has a single bit of memory and one bit is present at each node, then exploration may require quadratic time on paths, if the initial memory at nodes could be set arbitrarily (so called dirty memory). This shows that having clean node memory or a token allows linear exploration of trees in the model with two types of memory, but having neither of those features may lead to quadratic exploration time even on a simple path.

In this article, we develop differentially private tools for handling model uncertainty in linear regression models. We introduce hypothesis tests for nested linear models and methods for model averaging and selection. We consider Bayesian approaches based on mixtures of $g$-priors as well as non-Bayesian approaches based on information criteria. The procedures are straightforward to implement with existing software for non-private data and are asymptotically consistent under certain regularity conditions. We address practical issues such as calibrating the tests so that they have adequate type I error rates or quantifying the uncertainty introduced by the privacy mechanisms. Additionally, we provide specific guidelines to maximize the statistical utility of the methods in finite samples.

The combinatorial diameter $\operatorname{diam}(P)$ of a polytope $P$ is the maximum shortest path distance between any pair of vertices. In this paper, we provide upper and lower bounds on the combinatorial diameter of a random "spherical" polytope, which is tight to within one factor of dimension when the number of inequalities is large compared to the dimension. More precisely, for an $n$-dimensional polytope $P$ defined by the intersection of $m$ i.i.d.\ half-spaces whose normals are chosen uniformly from the sphere, we show that $\operatorname{diam}(P)$ is $\Omega(n m^{\frac{1}{n-1}})$ and $O(n^2 m^{\frac{1}{n-1}} + n^5 4^n)$ with high probability when $m \geq 2^{\Omega(n)}$. For the upper bound, we first prove that the number of vertices in any fixed two dimensional projection sharply concentrates around its expectation when $m$ is large, where we rely on the $\Theta(n^2 m^{\frac{1}{n-1}})$ bound on the expectation due to Borgwardt [Math. Oper. Res., 1999]. To obtain the diameter upper bound, we stitch these ``shadows paths'' together over a suitable net using worst-case diameter bounds to connect vertices to the nearest shadow. For the lower bound, we first reduce to lower bounding the diameter of the dual polytope $P^\circ$, corresponding to a random convex hull, by showing the relation $\operatorname{diam}(P) \geq (n-1)(\operatorname{diam}(P^\circ)-2)$. We then prove that the shortest path between any ``nearly'' antipodal pair vertices of $P^\circ$ has length $\Omega(m^{\frac{1}{n-1}})$.

In the Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction scenario, user's sequential behaviors are well utilized to capture the user interest in the recent literature. However, despite being extensively studied, these sequential methods still suffer from three limitations. First, existing methods mostly utilize attention on the behavior of users, which is not always suitable for CTR prediction, because users often click on new products that are irrelevant to any historical behaviors. Second, in the real scenario, there exist numerous users that have operations a long time ago, but turn relatively inactive in recent times. Thus, it is hard to precisely capture user's current preferences through early behaviors. Third, multiple representations of user's historical behaviors in different feature subspaces are largely ignored. To remedy these issues, we propose a Multi-Interactive Attention Network (MIAN) to comprehensively extract the latent relationship among all kinds of fine-grained features (e.g., gender, age and occupation in user-profile). Specifically, MIAN contains a Multi-Interactive Layer (MIL) that integrates three local interaction modules to capture multiple representations of user preference through sequential behaviors and simultaneously utilize the fine-grained user-specific as well as context information. In addition, we design a Global Interaction Module (GIM) to learn the high-order interactions and balance the different impacts of multiple features. Finally, Offline experiment results from three datasets, together with an Online A/B test in a large-scale recommendation system, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

We present an approach to learn an object-centric forward model, and show that this allows us to plan for sequences of actions to achieve distant desired goals. We propose to model a scene as a collection of objects, each with an explicit spatial location and implicit visual feature, and learn to model the effects of actions using random interaction data. Our model allows capturing the robot-object and object-object interactions, and leads to more sample-efficient and accurate predictions. We show that this learned model can be leveraged to search for action sequences that lead to desired goal configurations, and that in conjunction with a learned correction module, this allows for robust closed loop execution. We present experiments both in simulation and the real world, and show that our approach improves over alternate implicit or pixel-space forward models. Please see our project page (//judyye.github.io/ocmpc/) for result videos.

This study is to review the approaches used for measuring sentences similarity. Measuring similarity between natural language sentences is a crucial task for many Natural Language Processing applications such as text classification, information retrieval, question answering, and plagiarism detection. This survey classifies approaches of calculating sentences similarity based on the adopted methodology into three categories. Word-to-word based, structure based, and vector-based are the most widely used approaches to find sentences similarity. Each approach measures relatedness between short texts based on a specific perspective. In addition, datasets that are mostly used as benchmarks for evaluating techniques in this field are introduced to provide a complete view on this issue. The approaches that combine more than one perspective give better results. Moreover, structure based similarity that measures similarity between sentences structures needs more investigation.

The field of natural language processing has seen impressive progress in recent years, with neural network models replacing many of the traditional systems. A plethora of new models have been proposed, many of which are thought to be opaque compared to their feature-rich counterparts. This has led researchers to analyze, interpret, and evaluate neural networks in novel and more fine-grained ways. In this survey paper, we review analysis methods in neural language processing, categorize them according to prominent research trends, highlight existing limitations, and point to potential directions for future work.

Lots of learning tasks require dealing with graph data which contains rich relation information among elements. Modeling physics system, learning molecular fingerprints, predicting protein interface, and classifying diseases require that a model to learn from graph inputs. In other domains such as learning from non-structural data like texts and images, reasoning on extracted structures, like the dependency tree of sentences and the scene graph of images, is an important research topic which also needs graph reasoning models. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are connectionist models that capture the dependence of graphs via message passing between the nodes of graphs. Unlike standard neural networks, graph neural networks retain a state that can represent information from its neighborhood with an arbitrary depth. Although the primitive graph neural networks have been found difficult to train for a fixed point, recent advances in network architectures, optimization techniques, and parallel computation have enabled successful learning with them. In recent years, systems based on graph convolutional network (GCN) and gated graph neural network (GGNN) have demonstrated ground-breaking performance on many tasks mentioned above. In this survey, we provide a detailed review over existing graph neural network models, systematically categorize the applications, and propose four open problems for future research.

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