In this article, we develop differentially private tools for handling model uncertainty in linear regression models. We introduce hypothesis tests for nested linear models and methods for model averaging and selection. We consider Bayesian approaches based on mixtures of $g$-priors as well as non-Bayesian approaches based on information criteria. The procedures are straightforward to implement with existing software for non-private data and are asymptotically consistent under certain regularity conditions. We address practical issues such as calibrating the tests so that they have adequate type I error rates or quantifying the uncertainty introduced by the privacy mechanisms. Additionally, we provide specific guidelines to maximize the statistical utility of the methods in finite samples.
Computer models are widely used in decision support for energy systems operation, planning and policy. A system of models is often employed, where model inputs themselves arise from other computer models, with each model being developed by different teams of experts. Gaussian Process emulators can be used to approximate the behaviour of complex, computationally intensive models and used to generate predictions together with a measure of uncertainty about the predicted model output. This paper presents a computationally efficient framework for propagating uncertainty within a network of models with high-dimensional outputs used for energy planning. We present a case study from a UK county council considering low carbon technologies to transform its infrastructure to reach a net-zero carbon target. The system model considered for this case study is simple, however the framework can be applied to larger networks of more complex models.
We investigate the feature compression of high-dimensional ridge regression using the optimal subsampling technique. Specifically, based on the basic framework of random sampling algorithm on feature for ridge regression and the A-optimal design criterion, we first obtain a set of optimal subsampling probabilities. Considering that the obtained probabilities are uneconomical, we then propose the nearly optimal ones. With these probabilities, a two step iterative algorithm is established which has lower computational cost and higher accuracy. We provide theoretical analysis and numerical experiments to support the proposed methods. Numerical results demonstrate the decent performance of our methods.
We consider M-estimation problems, where the target value is determined using a minimizer of an expected functional of a Levy process. With discrete observations from the Levy process, we can produce a "quasi-path" by shuffling increments of the Levy process, we call it a quasi-process. Under a suitable sampling scheme, a quasi-process can converge weakly to the true process according to the properties of the stationary and independent increments. Using this resampling technique, we can estimate objective functionals similar to those estimated using the Monte Carlo simulations, and it is available as a contrast function. The M-estimator based on these quasi-processes can be consistent and asymptotically normal.
Privacy protection is an essential issue in personalized news recommendation, and federated learning can potentially mitigate the privacy concern by training personalized news recommendation models over decentralized user data.For a theoretical privacy guarantee, differential privacy is necessary. However, applying differential privacy to federated recommendation training and serving conventionally suffers from the unsatisfactory trade-off between privacy and utility due to the high-dimensional characteristics of model gradients and hidden representations. In addition, there is no formal privacy guarantee for both training and serving in federated recommendation. In this paper, we propose a unified federated news recommendation method for effective and privacy-preserving model training and online serving with differential privacy guarantees. We first clarify the notion of differential privacy over users' behavior data for both model training and online serving in the federated recommendation scenario. Next, we propose a privacy-preserving online serving mechanism under this definition with differentially private user interest decomposition. More specifically, it decomposes the high-dimensional and privacy-sensitive user embedding into a combination of public basic vectors and adds noise to the combination coefficients. In this way, it can avoid the dimension curse and improve the utility by reducing the required noise intensity for differential privacy. Besides, we design a federated recommendation model training method with differential privacy, which can avoid the dimension-dependent noise for large models via label permutation and differentially private attention modules. Experiments on real-world news recommendation datasets validate the effectiveness of our method in achieving a good trade-off between privacy protection and utility for federated news recommendations.
In the interdependent values (IDV) model introduced by Milgrom and Weber [1982], agents have private signals that capture their information about different social alternatives, and the valuation of every agent is a function of all agent signals. While interdependence has been mainly studied for auctions, it is extremely relevant for a large variety of social choice settings, including the canonical setting of public projects. The IDV model is very challenging relative to standard independent private values, and welfare guarantees have been achieved through two alternative conditions known as {\em single-crossing} and {\em submodularity over signals (SOS)}. In either case, the existing theory falls short of solving the public projects setting. Our contribution is twofold: (i) We give a workable characterization of truthfulness for IDV public projects for the largest class of valuations for which such a characterization exists, and term this class \emph{decomposable valuations}; (ii) We provide possibility and impossibility results for welfare approximation in public projects with SOS valuations. Our main impossibility result is that, in contrast to auctions, no universally truthful mechanism performs better for public projects with SOS valuations than choosing a project at random. Our main positive result applies to {\em excludable} public projects with SOS, for which we establish a constant factor approximation similar to auctions. Our results suggest that exclusion may be a key tool for achieving welfare guarantees in the IDV model.
There is a dearth of convergence results for differentially private federated learning (FL) with non-Lipschitz objective functions (i.e., when gradient norms are not bounded). The primary reason for this is that the clipping operation (i.e., projection onto an $\ell_2$ ball of a fixed radius called the clipping threshold) for bounding the sensitivity of the average update to each client's update introduces bias depending on the clipping threshold and the number of local steps in FL, and analyzing this is not easy. For Lipschitz functions, the Lipschitz constant serves as a trivial clipping threshold with zero bias. However, Lipschitzness does not hold in many practical settings; moreover, verifying it and computing the Lipschitz constant is hard. Thus, the choice of the clipping threshold is non-trivial and requires a lot of tuning in practice. In this paper, we provide the first convergence result for private FL on smooth \textit{convex} objectives \textit{for a general clipping threshold} -- \textit{without assuming Lipschitzness}. We also look at a simpler alternative to clipping (for bounding sensitivity) which is \textit{normalization} -- where we use only a scaled version of the unit vector along the client updates, completely discarding the magnitude information. {The resulting normalization-based private FL algorithm is theoretically shown to have better convergence than its clipping-based counterpart on smooth convex functions. We corroborate our theory with synthetic experiments as well as experiments on benchmarking datasets.
Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal likelihood (model evidence), which is computationally challenging, prohibiting its use in many high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. With Bayesian imaging applications in mind, in this work we present the proximal nested sampling methodology to objectively compare alternative Bayesian imaging models for applications that use images to inform decisions under uncertainty. The methodology is based on nested sampling, a Monte Carlo approach specialised for model comparison, and exploits proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to scale efficiently to large problems and to tackle models that are log-concave and not necessarily smooth (e.g., involving l_1 or total-variation priors). The proposed approach can be applied computationally to problems of dimension O(10^6) and beyond, making it suitable for high-dimensional inverse imaging problems. It is validated on large Gaussian models, for which the likelihood is available analytically, and subsequently illustrated on a range of imaging problems where it is used to analyse different choices of dictionary and measurement model.
Federated learning with differential privacy, or private federated learning, provides a strategy to train machine learning models while respecting users' privacy. However, differential privacy can disproportionately degrade the performance of the models on under-represented groups, as these parts of the distribution are difficult to learn in the presence of noise. Existing approaches for enforcing fairness in machine learning models have considered the centralized setting, in which the algorithm has access to the users' data. This paper introduces an algorithm to enforce group fairness in private federated learning, where users' data does not leave their devices. First, the paper extends the modified method of differential multipliers to empirical risk minimization with fairness constraints, thus providing an algorithm to enforce fairness in the central setting. Then, this algorithm is extended to the private federated learning setting. The proposed algorithm, \texttt{FPFL}, is tested on a federated version of the Adult dataset and an "unfair" version of the FEMNIST dataset. The experiments on these datasets show how private federated learning accentuates unfairness in the trained models, and how FPFL is able to mitigate such unfairness.
We develop a simple and unified framework for nonlinear variable selection that incorporates model uncertainty and is compatible with a wide range of machine learning models (e.g., tree ensembles, kernel methods and neural network). In particular, for a learned nonlinear model $f(\mathbf{x})$, we consider quantifying the importance of an input variable $\mathbf{x}^j$ using the integrated gradient measure $\psi_j = \Vert \frac{\partial}{\partial \mathbf{x}^j} f(\mathbf{x})\Vert^2_2$. We then (1) provide a principled approach for quantifying variable selection uncertainty by deriving its posterior distribution, and (2) show that the approach is generalizable even to non-differentiable models such as tree ensembles. Rigorous Bayesian nonparametric theorems are derived to guarantee the posterior consistency and asymptotic uncertainty of the proposed approach. Extensive simulation confirms that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing classic and recent variable selection methods.
Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.