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Exponential generalization bounds with near-tight rates have recently been established for uniformly stable learning algorithms. The notion of uniform stability, however, is stringent in the sense that it is invariant to the data-generating distribution. Under the weaker and distribution dependent notions of stability such as hypothesis stability and $L_2$-stability, the literature suggests that only polynomial generalization bounds are possible in general cases. The present paper addresses this long standing tension between these two regimes of results and makes progress towards relaxing it inside a classic framework of confidence-boosting. To this end, we first establish an in-expectation first moment generalization error bound for potentially randomized learning algorithms with $L_2$-stability, based on which we then show that a properly designed subbagging process leads to near-tight exponential generalization bounds over the randomness of both data and algorithm. We further substantialize these generic results to stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to derive improved high-probability generalization bounds for convex or non-convex optimization problems with natural time decaying learning rates, which have not been possible to prove with the existing hypothesis stability or uniform stability based results.

In high-dimensional prediction settings, it remains challenging to reliably estimate the test performance. To address this challenge, a novel performance estimation framework is presented. This framework, called Learn2Evaluate, is based on learning curves by fitting a smooth monotone curve depicting test performance as a function of the sample size. Learn2Evaluate has several advantages compared to commonly applied performance estimation methodologies. Firstly, a learning curve offers a graphical overview of a learner. This overview assists in assessing the potential benefit of adding training samples and it provides a more complete comparison between learners than performance estimates at a fixed subsample size. Secondly, a learning curve facilitates in estimating the performance at the total sample size rather than a subsample size. Thirdly, Learn2Evaluate allows the computation of a theoretically justified and useful lower confidence bound. Furthermore, this bound may be tightened by performing a bias correction. The benefits of Learn2Evaluate are illustrated by a simulation study and applications to omics data.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables effective learning from previously collected data without exploration, which shows great promise in real-world applications when exploration is expensive or even infeasible. The discount factor, $\gamma$, plays a vital role in improving online RL sample efficiency and estimation accuracy, but the role of the discount factor in offline RL is not well explored. This paper examines two distinct effects of $\gamma$ in offline RL with theoretical analysis, namely the regularization effect and the pessimism effect. On the one hand, $\gamma$ is a regulator to trade-off optimality with sample efficiency upon existing offline techniques. On the other hand, lower guidance $\gamma$ can also be seen as a way of pessimism where we optimize the policy's performance in the worst possible models. We empirically verify the above theoretical observation with tabular MDPs and standard D4RL tasks. The results show that the discount factor plays an essential role in the performance of offline RL algorithms, both under small data regimes upon existing offline methods and in large data regimes without other conservatisms.

This paper is concerned with online filtering of discretely observed nonlinear diffusion processes. Our approach is based on the fully adapted auxiliary particle filter, which involves Doob's $h$-transforms that are typically intractable. We propose a computational framework to approximate these $h$-transforms by solving the underlying backward Kolmogorov equations using nonlinear Feynman-Kac formulas and neural networks. The methodology allows one to train a locally optimal particle filter prior to the data-assimilation procedure. Numerical experiments illustrate that the proposed approach can be orders of magnitude more efficient than the bootstrap particle filter in the regime of highly informative observations, when the observations are extreme under the model, and if the state dimension is large.

We prove concentration inequalities and associated PAC bounds for continuous- and discrete-time additive functionals for possibly unbounded functions of multivariate, nonreversible diffusion processes. Our analysis relies on an approach via the Poisson equation allowing us to consider a very broad class of subexponentially ergodic processes. These results add to existing concentration inequalities for additive functionals of diffusion processes which have so far been only available for either bounded functions or for unbounded functions of processes from a significantly smaller class. We demonstrate the power of these exponential inequalities by two examples of very different areas. Considering a possibly high-dimensional parametric nonlinear drift model under sparsity constraints, we apply the continuous-time concentration results to validate the restricted eigenvalue condition for Lasso estimation, which is fundamental for the derivation of oracle inequalities. The results for discrete additive functionals are used to investigate the unadjusted Langevin MCMC algorithm for sampling of moderately heavy-tailed densities $\pi$. In particular, we provide PAC bounds for the sample Monte Carlo estimator of integrals $\pi(f)$ for polynomially growing functions $f$ that quantify sufficient sample and step sizes for approximation within a prescribed margin with high probability.

Search engines and recommendation systems attempt to continually improve the quality of the experience they afford to their users. Refining the ranker that produces the lists displayed in response to user requests is an important component of this process. A common practice is for the service providers to make changes (e.g. new ranking features, different ranking models) and A/B test them on a fraction of their users to establish the value of the change. An alternative approach estimates the effectiveness of the proposed changes offline, utilising previously collected clickthrough data on the old ranker to posit what the user behaviour on ranked lists produced by the new ranker would have been. A majority of offline evaluation approaches invoke the well studied inverse propensity weighting to adjust for biases inherent in logged data. In this paper, we propose the use of parametric estimates for these propensities. Specifically, by leveraging well known learning-to-rank methods as subroutines, we show how accurate offline evaluation can be achieved when the new rankings to be evaluated differ from the logged ones.

We refer by threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck to a continuous-time threshold autoregressive process. It follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics when above or below a fixed level, yet at this level (threshold) its coefficients can be discontinuous. We discuss (quasi)-maximum likelihood estimation of the drift parameters, both assuming continuous and discrete time observations. In the ergodic case, we derive consistency and speed of convergence of these estimators in long time and high frequency. Based on these results, we develop a test for the presence of a threshold in the dynamics. Finally, we apply these statistical tools to short-term US interest rates modeling.

Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate stochastic processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence or the partial coherence, encode comprehensively the complex linear relations between the component processes of the multivariate system. In this paper, we develop inference procedures for such parameters in a high-dimensional, time series setup. In particular, we first focus on the derivation of consistent estimators of the coherence and, more importantly, of the partial coherence which possess manageable limiting distributions that are suitable for testing purposes. Statistical tests of the hypothesis that the maximum over frequencies of the coherence, respectively, of the partial coherence, do not exceed a prespecified threshold value are developed. Our approach allows for testing hypotheses for individual coherences and/or partial coherences as well as for multiple testing of large sets of such parameters. In the latter case, a consistent procedure to control the false discovery rate is developed. The finite sample performance of the inference procedures proposed is investigated by means of simulations and applications to the construction of graphical interaction models for brain connectivity based on EEG data are presented.

This paper introduces the factored conditional filter, a new filtering algorithm for simultaneously tracking states and estimating parameters in high-dimensional state spaces. The conditional nature of the algorithm is used to estimate parameters and the factored nature is used to decompose the state space into low-dimensional subspaces in such a way that filtering on these subspaces gives distributions whose product is a good approximation to the distribution on the entire state space. The conditions for successful application of the algorithm are that observations be available at the subspace level and that the transition model can be factored into local transition models that are approximately confined to the subspaces; these conditions are widely satisfied in computer science, engineering, and geophysical filtering applications. We give experimental results on tracking epidemics and estimating parameters in large contact networks that show the effectiveness of our approach.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.