We refer by threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck to a continuous-time threshold autoregressive process. It follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics when above or below a fixed level, yet at this level (threshold) its coefficients can be discontinuous. We discuss (quasi)-maximum likelihood estimation of the drift parameters, both assuming continuous and discrete time observations. In the ergodic case, we derive consistency and speed of convergence of these estimators in long time and high frequency. Based on these results, we develop a test for the presence of a threshold in the dynamics. Finally, we apply these statistical tools to short-term US interest rates modeling.
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Boosting is one of the most significant developments in machine learning. This paper studies the rate of convergence of $L_2$Boosting, which is tailored for regression, in a high-dimensional setting. Moreover, we introduce so-called \textquotedblleft post-Boosting\textquotedblright. This is a post-selection estimator which applies ordinary least squares to the variables selected in the first stage by $L_2$Boosting. Another variant is \textquotedblleft Orthogonal Boosting\textquotedblright\ where after each step an orthogonal projection is conducted. We show that both post-$L_2$Boosting and the orthogonal boosting achieve the same rate of convergence as LASSO in a sparse, high-dimensional setting. We show that the rate of convergence of the classical $L_2$Boosting depends on the design matrix described by a sparse eigenvalue constant. To show the latter results, we derive new approximation results for the pure greedy algorithm, based on analyzing the revisiting behavior of $L_2$Boosting. We also introduce feasible rules for early stopping, which can be easily implemented and used in applied work. Our results also allow a direct comparison between LASSO and boosting which has been missing from the literature. Finally, we present simulation studies and applications to illustrate the relevance of our theoretical results and to provide insights into the practical aspects of boosting. In these simulation studies, post-$L_2$Boosting clearly outperforms LASSO.
Consider the sum $Y=B+B(H)$ of a Brownian motion $B$ and an independent fractional Brownian motion $B(H)$ with Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$. Surprisingly, even though $B(H)$ is not a semimartingale, Cheridito proved in [Bernoulli 7 (2001) 913--934] that $Y$ is a semimartingale if $H>3/4$. Moreover, $Y$ is locally equivalent to $B$ in this case, so $H$ cannot be consistently estimated from local observations of $Y$. This paper pivots on a second surprise in this model: if $B$ and $B(H)$ become correlated, then $Y$ will never be a semimartingale, and $H$ can be identified, regardless of its value. This and other results will follow from a detailed statistical analysis of a more general class of processes called mixed semimartingales, which are semiparametric extensions of $Y$ with stochastic volatility in both the martingale and the fractional component. In particular, we derive consistent estimators and feasible central limit theorems for all parameters and processes that can be identified from high-frequency observations. We further show that our estimators achieve optimal rates in a minimax sense. The estimation of mixed semimartingales with correlation is motivated by applications to high-frequency financial data contaminated by rough noise.
Cluster-level inference procedures are widely used for brain mapping. These methods compare the size of clusters obtained by thresholding brain maps to an upper bound under the global null hypothesis, computed using Random Field Theory or permutations. However, the guarantees obtained by this type of inference - i.e. at least one voxel is truly activated in the cluster - are not informative with regards to the strength of the signal therein. There is thus a need for methods to assess the amount of signal within clusters; yet such methods have to take into account that clusters are defined based on the data, which creates circularity in the inference scheme. This has motivated the use of post hoc estimates that allow statistically valid estimation of the proportion of activated voxels in clusters. In the context of fMRI data, the All-Resolutions Inference framework introduced in [25] provides post hoc estimates of the proportion of activated voxels. However, this method relies on parametric threshold families, which results in conservative inference. In this paper, we leverage randomization methods to adapt to data characteristics and obtain tighter false discovery control. We obtain Notip, for Non-parametric True Discovery Proportion control: a powerful, non-parametric method that yields statistically valid guarantees on the proportion of activated voxels in data-derived clusters. Numerical experiments demonstrate substantial gains in number of detections compared with state-of-the-art methods on 36 fMRI datasets. The conditions under which the proposed method brings benefits are also discussed.
Heterogeneity is a dominant factor in the behaviour of many biological processes. Despite this, it is common for mathematical and statistical analyses to ignore biological heterogeneity as a source of variability in experimental data. Therefore, methods for exploring the identifiability of models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneity through variability in model parameters are relatively underdeveloped. We develop a new likelihood-based framework, based on moment matching, for inference and identifiability analysis of differential equation models that capture biological heterogeneity through parameters that vary according to probability distributions. As our novel method is based on an approximate likelihood function, it is highly flexible; we demonstrate identifiability analysis using both a frequentist approach based on profile likelihood, and a Bayesian approach based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo. Through three case studies, we demonstrate our method by providing a didactic guide to inference and identifiability analysis of hyperparameters that relate to the statistical moments of model parameters from independent observed data. Our approach has a computational cost comparable to analysis of models that neglect heterogeneity, a significant improvement over many existing alternatives. We demonstrate how analysis of random parameter models can aid better understanding of the sources of heterogeneity from biological data.
Generating sound effects that humans want is an important topic. However, there are few studies in this area for sound generation. In this study, we investigate generating sound conditioned on a text prompt and propose a novel text-to-sound generation framework that consists of a text encoder, a Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE), a decoder, and a vocoder. The framework first uses the decoder to transfer the text features extracted from the text encoder to a mel-spectrogram with the help of VQ-VAE, and then the vocoder is used to transform the generated mel-spectrogram into a waveform. We found that the decoder significantly influences the generation performance. Thus, we focus on designing a good decoder in this study. We begin with the traditional autoregressive decoder, which has been proved as a state-of-the-art method in previous sound generation works. However, the AR decoder always predicts the mel-spectrogram tokens one by one in order, which introduces the unidirectional bias and accumulation of errors problems. Moreover, with the AR decoder, the sound generation time increases linearly with the sound duration. To overcome the shortcomings introduced by AR decoders, we propose a non-autoregressive decoder based on the discrete diffusion model, named Diffsound. Specifically, the Diffsound predicts all of the mel-spectrogram tokens in one step and then refines the predicted tokens in the next step, so the best-predicted results can be obtained after several steps. Our experiments show that our proposed Diffsound not only produces better text-to-sound generation results when compared with the AR decoder but also has a faster generation speed, e.g., MOS: 3.56 \textit{v.s} 2.786, and the generation speed is five times faster than the AR decoder.
Mark-point dependence plays a critical role in research problems that can be fitted into the general framework of marked point processes. In this work, we focus on adjusting for mark-point dependence when estimating the mean and covariance functions of the mark process, given independent replicates of the marked point process. We assume that the mark process is a Gaussian process and the point process is a log-Gaussian Cox process, where the mark-point dependence is generated through the dependence between two latent Gaussian processes. Under this framework, naive local linear estimators ignoring the mark-point dependence can be severely biased. We show that this bias can be corrected using a local linear estimator of the cross-covariance function and establish uniform convergence rates of the bias-corrected estimators. Furthermore, we propose a test statistic based on local linear estimators for mark-point independence, which is shown to converge to an asymptotic normal distribution in a parametric $\sqrt{n}$-convergence rate. Model diagnostics tools are developed for key model assumptions and a robust functional permutation test is proposed for a more general class of mark-point processes. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated using extensive simulations and applications to two real data examples.
We consider parameter estimation of stochastic differential equations driven by a Wiener process and a compound Poisson process as small noises. The goal is to give a threshold-type quasi-likelihood estimator and show its consistency and asymptotic normality under new asymptotics. One of the novelties of the paper is that we give a new localization argument, which enables us to avoid truncation in the contrast function that has been used in earlier works and to deal with a wider class of jumps in threshold estimation than ever before.
This paper first strictly proved that the growth of the second moment of a large class of Gaussian processes is not greater than power function and the covariance matrix is strictly positive definite. Under these two conditions, the maximum likelihood estimators of the mean and variance of such classes of drift Gaussian process have strong consistency under broader growth of t_n. At the same time, the asymptotic normality of binary random vectors and the Berry-Ess\'{e}en bound of estimators are obtained by using the Stein's method via Malliavian calculus.
In Federated Learning (FL), a number of clients or devices collaborate to train a model without sharing their data. Models are optimized locally at each client and further communicated to a central hub for aggregation. While FL is an appealing decentralized training paradigm, heterogeneity among data from different clients can cause the local optimization to drift away from the global objective. In order to estimate and therefore remove this drift, variance reduction techniques have been incorporated into FL optimization recently. However, these approaches inaccurately estimate the clients' drift and ultimately fail to remove it properly. In this work, we propose an adaptive algorithm that accurately estimates drift across clients. In comparison to previous works, our approach necessitates less storage and communication bandwidth, as well as lower compute costs. Additionally, our proposed methodology induces stability by constraining the norm of estimates for client drift, making it more practical for large scale FL. Experimental findings demonstrate that the proposed algorithm converges significantly faster and achieves higher accuracy than the baselines across various FL benchmarks.
We study a class of fully-discrete schemes for the numerical approximation of solutions of stochastic Cahn--Hilliard equations with cubic nonlinearity and driven by additive noise. The spatial (resp. temporal) discretization is performed with a spectral Galerkin method (resp. a tamed exponential Euler method). We consider two situations: space-time white noise in dimension $d=1$ and trace-class noise in dimensions $d=1,2,3$. In both situations, we prove weak error estimates, where the weak order of convergence is twice the strong order of convergence with respect to the spatial and temporal discretization parameters. To prove these results, we show appropriate regularity estimates for solutions of the Kolmogorov equation associated with the stochastic Cahn--Hilliard equation, which have not been established previously and may be of interest in other contexts.
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