This paper first strictly proved that the growth of the second moment of a large class of Gaussian processes is not greater than power function and the covariance matrix is strictly positive definite. Under these two conditions, the maximum likelihood estimators of the mean and variance of such classes of drift Gaussian process have strong consistency under broader growth of t_n. At the same time, the asymptotic normality of binary random vectors and the Berry-Ess\'{e}en bound of estimators are obtained by using the Stein's method via Malliavian calculus.
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In this paper we study estimating Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) in the case where the agents (individuals) are strategic or self-interested and they concern about their privacy when reporting data. Compared with the classical setting, here we aim to design mechanisms that can both incentivize most agents to truthfully report their data and preserve the privacy of individuals' reports, while their outputs should also close to the underlying parameter. In the first part of the paper, we consider the case where the covariates are sub-Gaussian and the responses are heavy-tailed where they only have the finite fourth moments. First, motivated by the stationary condition of the maximizer of the likelihood function, we derive a novel private and closed form estimator. Based on the estimator, we propose a mechanism which has the following properties via some appropriate design of the computation and payment scheme for several canonical models such as linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression: (1) the mechanism is $o(1)$-jointly differentially private (with probability at least $1-o(1)$); (2) it is an $o(\frac{1}{n})$-approximate Bayes Nash equilibrium for a $(1-o(1))$-fraction of agents to truthfully report their data, where $n$ is the number of agents; (3) the output could achieve an error of $o(1)$ to the underlying parameter; (4) it is individually rational for a $(1-o(1))$ fraction of agents in the mechanism ; (5) the payment budget required from the analyst to run the mechanism is $o(1)$. In the second part, we consider the linear regression model under more general setting where both covariates and responses are heavy-tailed and only have finite fourth moments. By using an $\ell_4$-norm shrinkage operator, we propose a private estimator and payment scheme which have similar properties as in the sub-Gaussian case.
This work considers Gaussian process interpolation with a periodized version of the Mat{\'e}rn covariance function (Stein, 1999, Section 6.7) with Fourier coefficients $\phi$($\alpha$^2 + j^2)^(--$\nu$--1/2). Convergence rates are studied for the joint maximum likelihood estimation of $\nu$ and $\phi$ when the data is sampled according to the model. The mean integrated squared error is also analyzed with fixed and estimated parameters, showing that maximum likelihood estimation yields asymptotically the same error as if the ground truth was known. Finally, the case where the observed function is a ''deterministic'' element of a continuous Sobolev space is also considered, suggesting that bounding assumptions on some parameters can lead to different estimates.
In this paper, we investigate the matrix estimation problem in the multi-response regression model with measurement errors. A nonconvex error-corrected estimator based on a combination of the amended loss function and the nuclear norm regularizer is proposed to estimate the matrix parameter. Then under the (near) low-rank assumption, we analyse statistical and computational theoretical properties of global solutions of the nonconvex regularized estimator from a general point of view. In the statistical aspect, we establish the nonasymptotic recovery bound for any global solution of the nonconvex estimator, under restricted strong convexity on the loss function. In the computational aspect, we solve the nonconvex optimization problem via the proximal gradient method. The algorithm is proved to converge to a near-global solution and achieve a linear convergence rate. In addition, we also verify sufficient conditions for the general results to be held, in order to obtain probabilistic consequences for specific types of measurement errors, including the additive noise and missing data. Finally, theoretical consequences are demonstrated by several numerical experiments on corrupted errors-in-variables multi-response regression models. Simulation results reveal excellent consistency with our theory under high-dimensional scaling.
Traditional nonparametric estimation methods often lead to a slow convergence rate in large dimensions and require unrealistically enormous sizes of datasets for reliable conclusions. We develop an approach based on mixed gradients, either observed or estimated, to effectively estimate the function at near-parametric convergence rates. The novel approach and computational algorithm could lead to methods useful to practitioners in many areas of science and engineering. Our theoretical results reveal a behavior universal to this class of nonparametric estimation problems. We explore a general setting involving tensor product spaces and build upon the smoothing spline analysis of variance (SS-ANOVA) framework. For $d$-dimensional models under full interaction, the optimal rates with gradient information on $p$ covariates are identical to those for the $(d-p)$-interaction models without gradients and, therefore, the models are immune to the "curse of interaction". For additive models, the optimal rates using gradient information are root-$n$, thus achieving the "parametric rate". We demonstrate aspects of the theoretical results through synthetic and real data applications.
In this paper, we consider function-indexed normalized weighted integrated periodograms for equidistantly sampled multivariate continuous-time state space models which are multivariate continuous-time ARMA processes. Thereby, the sampling distance is fixed and the driving L\'evy process has at least a finite fourth moment. Under different assumptions on the function space and the moments of the driving L\'evy process we derive a central limit theorem for the function-indexed normalized weighted integrated periodogram. Either the assumption on the function space or the assumption on the existence of moments of the L\'evy process is weaker. Furthermore, we show the weak convergence in both the space of continuous functions and in the dual space to a Gaussian process and give an explicit representation of the covariance function. The results can be used to derive the asymptotic behavior of the Whittle estimator and to construct goodness-of-fit test statistics as the Grenander-Rosenblatt statistic and the Cram\'er-von Mises statistic. We present the exact limit distributions of both statistics and show their performance through a simulation study.
Point process models are of great importance in real world applications. In certain critical applications, estimation of point process models involves large amounts of sensitive personal data from users. Privacy concerns naturally arise which have not been addressed in the existing literature. To bridge this glaring gap, we propose the first general differentially private estimation procedure for point process models. Specifically, we take the Hawkes process as an example, and introduce a rigorous definition of differential privacy for event stream data based on a discretized representation of the Hawkes process. We then propose two differentially private optimization algorithms, which can efficiently estimate Hawkes process models with the desired privacy and utility guarantees under two different settings. Experiments are provided to back up our theoretical analysis.
Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural networks with underfitting in the case of small datasets or large model sizes. In this work, we show that invariances in the likelihood function of over-parametrised models contribute to this phenomenon because these invariances complicate the structure of the posterior by introducing discrete and/or continuous modes which cannot be well approximated by Gaussian mean-field distributions. In particular, we show that the mean-field approximation has an additional gap in the evidence lower bound compared to a purpose-built posterior that takes into account the known invariances. Importantly, this invariance gap is not constant; it vanishes as the approximation reverts to the prior. We proceed by first considering translation invariances in a linear model with a single data point in detail. We show that, while the true posterior can be constructed from a mean-field parametrisation, this is achieved only if the objective function takes into account the invariance gap. Then, we transfer our analysis of the linear model to neural networks. Our analysis provides a framework for future work to explore solutions to the invariance problem.
We propose a local version of spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes using Local Indicators of Spatio-Temporal Association (LISTA) functions into the minimum contrast procedure to obtain space as well as time-varying parameters. We resort to the joint minimum contrast fitting method to estimate the set of second-order parameters. This approach has the advantage of being suitable in both separable and non-separable parametric specifications of the correlation function of the underlying Gaussian Random Field. We present simulation studies to assess the performance of the proposed fitting procedure, and show an application to seismic spatio-temporal point pattern data.
We investigate hypothesis testing in nonparametric additive models estimated using simplified smooth backfitting (Huang and Yu, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, \textbf{28(2)}, 386--400, 2019). Simplified smooth backfitting achieves oracle properties under regularity conditions and provides closed-form expressions of the estimators that are useful for deriving asymptotic properties. We develop a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) and a loss function (LF) based testing framework for inference. Under the null hypothesis, both the GLR and LF tests have asymptotically rescaled chi-squared distributions, and both exhibit the Wilks phenomenon, which means the scaling constants and degrees of freedom are independent of nuisance parameters. These tests are asymptotically optimal in terms of rates of convergence for nonparametric hypothesis testing. Additionally, the bandwidths that are well-suited for model estimation may be useful for testing. We show that in additive models, the LF test is asymptotically more powerful than the GLR test. We use simulations to demonstrate the Wilks phenomenon and the power of these proposed GLR and LF tests, and a real example to illustrate their usefulness.
We study the problem of estimating an unknown parameter in a distributed and online manner. Existing work on distributed online learning typically either focuses on asymptotic analysis, or provides bounds on regret. However, these results may not directly translate into bounds on the error of the learned model after a finite number of time-steps. In this paper, we propose a distributed online estimation algorithm which enables each agent in a network to improve its estimation accuracy by communicating with neighbors. We provide non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error, leveraging the statistical properties of the underlying model. Our analysis demonstrates a trade-off between estimation error and communication costs. Further, our analysis allows us to determine a time at which the communication can be stopped (due to the costs associated with communications), while meeting a desired estimation accuracy. We also provide a numerical example to validate our results.
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