In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018. Several statistical models are considered, each of which models TXx using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution with the GEV parameters varying smoothly over space. In contrast to several previous studies which fit independent GEV models at the grid box level, our models pull information from neighbouring grid boxes for more efficient parameter estimation. The GEV location and scale parameters are allowed to vary in time using the log of atmospheric CO2 as a covariate. Changes are detected most strongly in the GEV location parameter with the TXx distributions generally shifting towards hotter temperatures. Averaged across our spatial domain, the 100-year return level of TXx based on the 2018 climate is approximately 2{\deg}C hotter than that based on the 1950 climate. Moreover, also averaging across our spatial domain, the 100-year return level of TXx based on the 1950 climate corresponds approximately to a 6-year return level in the 2018 climate.
Federated learning (FL) aims to minimize the communication complexity of training a model over heterogeneous data distributed across many clients. A common approach is local methods, where clients take multiple optimization steps over local data before communicating with the server (e.g., FedAvg). Local methods can exploit similarity between clients' data. However, in existing analyses, this comes at the cost of slow convergence in terms of the dependence on the number of communication rounds R. On the other hand, global methods, where clients simply return a gradient vector in each round (e.g., SGD), converge faster in terms of R but fail to exploit the similarity between clients even when clients are homogeneous. We propose FedChain, an algorithmic framework that combines the strengths of local methods and global methods to achieve fast convergence in terms of R while leveraging the similarity between clients. Using FedChain, we instantiate algorithms that improve upon previously known rates in the general convex and PL settings, and are near-optimal (via an algorithm-independent lower bound that we show) for problems that satisfy strong convexity. Empirical results support this theoretical gain over existing methods.
Sparse mixture of experts provides larger model capacity while requiring a constant computational overhead. It employs the routing mechanism to distribute input tokens to the best-matched experts according to their hidden representations. However, learning such a routing mechanism encourages token clustering around expert centroids, implying a trend toward representation collapse. In this work, we propose to estimate the routing scores between tokens and experts on a low-dimensional hypersphere. We conduct extensive experiments on cross-lingual language model pre-training and fine-tuning on downstream tasks. Experimental results across seven multilingual benchmarks show that our method achieves consistent gains. We also present a comprehensive analysis on the representation and routing behaviors of our models. Our method alleviates the representation collapse issue and achieves more consistent routing than the baseline mixture-of-experts methods.
We present a framework for gesture customization requiring minimal examples from users, all without degrading the performance of existing gesture sets. To achieve this, we first deployed a large-scale study (N=500+) to collect data and train an accelerometer-gyroscope recognition model with a cross-user accuracy of 95.7% and a false-positive rate of 0.6 per hour when tested on everyday non-gesture data. Next, we design a few-shot learning framework which derives a lightweight model from our pre-trained model, enabling knowledge transfer without performance degradation. We validate our approach through a user study (N=20) examining on-device customization from 12 new gestures, resulting in an average accuracy of 55.3%, 83.1%, and 87.2% on using one, three, or five shots when adding a new gesture, while maintaining the same recognition accuracy and false-positive rate from the pre-existing gesture set. We further evaluate the usability of our real-time implementation with a user experience study (N=20). Our results highlight the effectiveness, learnability, and usability of our customization framework. Our approach paves the way for a future where users are no longer bound to pre-existing gestures, freeing them to creatively introduce new gestures tailored to their preferences and abilities.
Covariance estimation for matrix-valued data has received an increasing interest in applications. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on matrix normal distribution assumption and the requirement of fixed matrix size, we propose a class of distribution-free regularized covariance estimation methods for high-dimensional matrix data under a separability condition and a bandable covariance structure. Under these conditions, the original covariance matrix is decomposed into a Kronecker product of two bandable small covariance matrices representing the variability over row and column directions. We formulate a unified framework for estimating bandable covariance, and introduce an efficient algorithm based on rank one unconstrained Kronecker product approximation. The convergence rates of the proposed estimators are established, and the derived minimax lower bound shows our proposed estimator is rate-optimal under certain divergence regimes of matrix size. We further introduce a class of robust covariance estimators and provide theoretical guarantees to deal with heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate the superior finite-sample performance of our methods using simulations and real applications from a gridded temperature anomalies dataset and a S&P 500 stock data analysis.
We study the distributed minimum spanning tree (MST) problem, a fundamental problem in distributed computing. It is well-known that distributed MST can be solved in $\tilde{O}(D+\sqrt{n})$ rounds in the standard CONGEST model (where $n$ is the network size and $D$ is the network diameter) and this is essentially the best possible round complexity (up to logarithmic factors). However, in resource-constrained networks such as ad hoc wireless and sensor networks, nodes spending so much time can lead to significant spending of resources such as energy. Motivated by the above consideration, we study distributed algorithms for MST under the \emph{sleeping model} [Chatterjee et al., PODC 2020], a model for design and analysis of resource-efficient distributed algorithms. In the sleeping model, a node can be in one of two modes in any round -- \emph{sleeping} or \emph{awake} (unlike the traditional model where nodes are always awake). Only the rounds in which a node is \emph{awake} are counted, while \emph{sleeping} rounds are ignored. A node spends resources only in the awake rounds and hence the main goal is to minimize the \emph{awake complexity} of a distributed algorithm, the worst-case number of rounds any node is awake. We present deterministic and randomized distributed MST algorithms that have an \emph{optimal} awake complexity of $O(\log n)$ time with a matching lower bound. We also show that our randomized awake-optimal algorithm has essentially the best possible round complexity by presenting a lower bound of $\tilde{\Omega}(n)$ on the product of the awake and round complexity of any distributed algorithm (including randomized) that outputs an MST, where $\tilde{\Omega}$ hides a $1/(\text{polylog } n)$ factor.
This paper considers the problem of inference in cluster randomized experiments when cluster sizes are non-ignorable. Here, by a cluster randomized experiment, we mean one in which treatment is assigned at the level of the cluster; by non-ignorable cluster sizes we mean that "large" clusters and "small" clusters may be heterogeneous, and, in particular, the effects of the treatment may vary across clusters of differing sizes. In order to permit this sort of flexibility, we consider a sampling framework in which cluster sizes themselves are random. In this way, our analysis departs from earlier analyses of cluster randomized experiments in which cluster sizes are treated as non-random. We distinguish between two different parameters of interest: the equally-weighted cluster-level average treatment effect, and the size-weighted cluster-level average treatment effect. For each parameter, we provide methods for inference in an asymptotic framework where the number of clusters tends to infinity and treatment is assigned using simple random sampling. We additionally permit the experimenter to sample only a subset of the units within each cluster rather than the entire cluster and demonstrate the implications of such sampling for some commonly used estimators. A small simulation study shows the practical relevance of our theoretical results.
We consider M-estimation problems, where the target value is determined using a minimizer of an expected functional of a Levy process. With discrete observations from the Levy process, we can produce a "quasi-path" by shuffling increments of the Levy process, we call it a quasi-process. Under a suitable sampling scheme, a quasi-process can converge weakly to the true process according to the properties of the stationary and independent increments. Using this resampling technique, we can estimate objective functionals similar to those estimated using the Monte Carlo simulations, and it is available as a contrast function. The M-estimator based on these quasi-processes can be consistent and asymptotically normal.
Federated learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning paradigm in which the server periodically aggregates local model parameters from clients without assembling their private data. Constrained communication and personalization requirements pose severe challenges to FL. Federated distillation (FD) is proposed to simultaneously address the above two problems, which exchanges knowledge between the server and clients, supporting heterogeneous local models while significantly reducing communication overhead. However, most existing FD methods require a proxy dataset, which is often unavailable in reality. A few recent proxy-data-free FD approaches can eliminate the need for additional public data, but suffer from remarkable discrepancy among local knowledge due to model heterogeneity, leading to ambiguous representation on the server and inevitable accuracy degradation. To tackle this issue, we propose a proxy-data-free FD algorithm based on distributed knowledge congruence (FedDKC). FedDKC leverages well-designed refinement strategies to narrow local knowledge differences into an acceptable upper bound, so as to mitigate the negative effects of knowledge incongruence. Specifically, from perspectives of peak probability and Shannon entropy of local knowledge, we design kernel-based knowledge refinement (KKR) and searching-based knowledge refinement (SKR) respectively, and theoretically guarantee that the refined-local knowledge can satisfy an approximately-similar distribution and be regarded as congruent. Extensive experiments conducted on three common datasets demonstrate that our proposed FedDKC significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art (accuracy boosts in 93.33% comparisons, Top-1 accuracy boosts by up to 4.38%, and Top-5 accuracy boosts by up to 10.31%) on various heterogeneous settings while evidently improving the convergence speed.
In the pooled data problem we are given a set of $n$ agents, each of which holds a hidden state bit, either $0$ or $1$. A querying procedure returns for a query set the sum of the states of the queried agents. The goal is to reconstruct the states using as few queries as possible. In this paper we consider two noise models for the pooled data problem. In the noisy channel model, the result for each agent flips with a certain probability. In the noisy query model, each query result is subject to random Gaussian noise. Our results are twofold. First, we present and analyze for both error models a simple and efficient distributed algorithm that reconstructs the initial states in a greedy fashion. Our novel analysis pins down the range of error probabilities and distributions for which our algorithm reconstructs the exact initial states with high probability. Secondly, we present simulation results of our algorithm and compare its performance with approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms that are conjectured to be optimal in a number of related problems.
In a sports competition, a team might lose a powerful incentive to exert full effort if its final rank does not depend on the outcome of the matches still to be played. Therefore, the organiser should reduce the probability of such a situation to the extent possible. Our paper provides a classification scheme to identify these weakly (where one team is indifferent) or strongly (where both teams are indifferent) stakeless games. A statistical model is estimated to simulate the UEFA Champions League groups and compare the candidate schedules used in the 2021/22 season according to the competitiveness of the matches played in the last round(s). The option followed in four of the eight groups is found to be optimal under a wide set of parameters. Minimising the number of strongly stakeless matches is verified to be a likely goal in the computer draw of the fixture that remains hidden from the public.