Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.
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We study dynamic algorithms in the model of algorithms with predictions. We assume the algorithm is given imperfect predictions regarding future updates, and we ask how such predictions can be used to improve the running time. This can be seen as a model interpolating between classic online and offline dynamic algorithms. Our results give smooth tradeoffs between these two extreme settings. First, we give algorithms for incremental and decremental transitive closure and approximate APSP that take as an additional input a predicted sequence of updates (edge insertions, or edge deletions, respectively). They preprocess it in $\tilde{O}(n^{(3+\omega)/2})$ time, and then handle updates in $\tilde{O}(1)$ worst-case time and queries in $\tilde{O}(\eta^2)$ worst-case time. Here $\eta$ is an error measure that can be bounded by the maximum difference between the predicted and actual insertion (deletion) time of an edge, i.e., by the $\ell_\infty$-error of the predictions. The second group of results concerns fully dynamic problems with vertex updates, where the algorithm has access to a predicted sequence of the next $n$ updates. We show how to solve fully dynamic triangle detection, maximum matching, single-source reachability, and more, in $O(n^{\omega-1}+n\eta_i)$ worst-case update time. Here $\eta_i$ denotes how much earlier the $i$-th update occurs than predicted. Our last result is a reduction that transforms a worst-case incremental algorithm without predictions into a fully dynamic algorithm which is given a predicted deletion time for each element at the time of its insertion. As a consequence we can, e.g., maintain fully dynamic exact APSP with such predictions in $\tilde{O}(n^2)$ worst-case vertex insertion time and $\tilde{O}(n^2 (1+\eta_i))$ worst-case vertex deletion time (for the prediction error $\eta_i$ defined as above).
As causal ground truth is incredibly rare, causal discovery algorithms are commonly only evaluated on simulated data. This is concerning, given that simulations reflect common preconceptions about generating processes regarding noise distributions, model classes, and more. In this work, we propose a novel method for falsifying the output of a causal discovery algorithm in the absence of ground truth. Our key insight is that while statistical learning seeks stability across subsets of data points, causal learning should seek stability across subsets of variables. Motivated by this insight, our method relies on a notion of compatibility between causal graphs learned on different subsets of variables. We prove that detecting incompatibilities can falsify wrongly inferred causal relations due to violation of assumptions or errors from finite sample effects. Although passing such compatibility tests is only a necessary criterion for good performance, we argue that it provides strong evidence for the causal models whenever compatibility entails strong implications for the joint distribution. We also demonstrate experimentally that detection of incompatibilities can aid in causal model selection.
In the Metric Dimension problem, one asks for a minimum-size set R of vertices such that for any pair of vertices of the graph, there is a vertex from R whose two distances to the vertices of the pair are distinct. This problem has mainly been studied on undirected graphs and has gained a lot of attention in the recent years. We focus on directed graphs, and show how to solve the problem in linear-time on digraphs whose underlying undirected graph (ignoring multiple edges) is a tree. This (nontrivially) extends a previous algorithm for oriented trees. We then extend the method to unicyclic digraphs (understood as the digraphs whose underlying undirected multigraph has a unique cycle). We also give a fixed-parameter-tractable algorithm for digraphs when parameterized by the directed modular-width, extending a known result for undirected graphs. Finally, we show that Metric Dimension is NP-hard even on planar triangle-free acyclic digraphs of maximum degree 6.
The exponential increase in the amount of available data makes taking advantage of them without violating users' privacy one of the fundamental problems of computer science. This question has been investigated thoroughly under the framework of differential privacy. However, most of the literature has not focused on settings where the amount of data is so large that we are not even able to compute the exact answer in the non-private setting (such as in the streaming setting, sublinear-time setting, etc.). This can often make the use of differential privacy unfeasible in practice. In this paper, we show a general approach for making Monte-Carlo randomized approximation algorithms differentially private. We only need to assume the error $R$ of the approximation algorithm is sufficiently concentrated around $0$ (e.g.\ $\mathbb{E}[|R|]$ is bounded) and that the function being approximated has a small global sensitivity $\Delta$. Specifically, if we have a randomized approximation algorithm with sufficiently concentrated error which has time/space/query complexity $T(n,\rho)$ with $\rho$ being an accuracy parameter, we can generally speaking get an algorithm with the same accuracy and complexity $T(n,\Theta(\epsilon \rho))$ that is $\epsilon$-differentially private.
Stochastic optimization has found wide applications in minimizing objective functions in machine learning, which motivates a lot of theoretical studies to understand its practical success. Most of existing studies focus on the convergence of optimization errors, while the generalization analysis of stochastic optimization is much lagging behind. This is especially the case for nonconvex and nonsmooth problems often encountered in practice. In this paper, we initialize a systematic stability and generalization analysis of stochastic optimization on nonconvex and nonsmooth problems. We introduce novel algorithmic stability measures and establish their quantitative connection on the gap between population gradients and empirical gradients, which is then further extended to study the gap between the Moreau envelope of the empirical risk and that of the population risk. To our knowledge, these quantitative connection between stability and generalization in terms of either gradients or Moreau envelopes have not been studied in the literature. We introduce a class of sampling-determined algorithms, for which we develop bounds for three stability measures. Finally, we apply these discussions to derive error bounds for stochastic gradient descent and its adaptive variant, where we show how to achieve an implicit regularization by tuning the step sizes and the number of iterations.
Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal discovery are often unable to uncover causal links, between random variables in a dynamic setting, that manifest only when the variables first experience low-probability realizations. To address this issue, we introduce a novel statistical independence test on data collected from time-invariant dynamical systems in which rare but consequential events occur. In particular, we exploit the time-invariance of the underlying data to construct a superimposed dataset of the system state before rare events happen at different timesteps. We then design a conditional independence test on the reorganized data. We provide non-asymptotic sample complexity bounds for the consistency of our method, and validate its performance across various simulated and real-world datasets, including incident data collected from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Code containing the datasets and experiments is publicly available.
In this paper, we show that in a parallel processing system, if a partial order is induced among the local states visited by a node, then synchronization cost can be eliminated. As a result of this partial order, a DAG is induced among the global states. Specifically, we show that in such systems, correctness is preserved even if the nodes execute asynchronously and read old information of other nodes. We present two variations for inducing DAGs -- \textit{DAG-inducing problems}, where the problem definition itself induces a DAG, and \textit{DAG-inducing algorithms}, where a DAG is induced by the algorithm. We demonstrate that the dominant clique (DC) problem and shortest path (SP) problem are DAG-inducing problems. Among these, DC allows self-stabilization, whereas the algorithm that we present for SP does not. We demonstrate that maximal matching (MM) is not a DAG-inducing problem. However, a DAG-inducing algorithm can be developed for it. The algorithm for MM allows self-stabilization. This algorithm converges in $2n$ moves and does not require a synchronous environment, which is an improvement over the existing algorithms in the literature. The algorithm for DC converges in $2m$ moves, and the algorithm for SP converges in $\mathcal{D}$ rounds. ($n$ is the number of nodes and $m$ is the number of edges in the input graph, and $\mathcal{D}$ is its diameter.) We also note that DAG-inducing problems are more general than, and encapsulate, lattice linear problems (Garg, SPAA 2020). Similarly, DAG-inducing algorithms encapsulate lattice linear algorithms (Gupta and Kulkarni, SSS 2022). We also show that a partial order induced among the local states visited by a node, as discussed above, is a necessary and sufficient condition to allow asynchrony.
The identification of choice models is crucial for understanding consumer behavior, designing marketing policies, and developing new products. The identification of parametric choice-based demand models, such as the multinomial choice model (MNL), is typically straightforward. However, nonparametric models, which are highly effective and flexible in explaining customer choices, may encounter the curse of the dimensionality and lose their identifiability. For example, the ranking-based model, which is a nonparametric model and designed to mirror the random utility maximization (RUM) principle, is known to be nonidentifiable from the collection of choice probabilities alone. In this paper, we develop a new class of nonparametric models that is not subject to the problem of nonidentifiability. Our model assumes bounded rationality of consumers, which results in symmetric demand cannibalization and intriguingly enables full identification. That is to say, we can uniquely construct the model based on its observed choice probabilities over assortments. We further propose an efficient estimation framework using a combination of column generation and expectation-maximization algorithms. Using a real-world data, we show that our choice model demonstrates competitive prediction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks, despite incorporating the assumption of bounded rationality which could, in theory, limit the representation power of our model.
In this paper we derive tight lower bounds resolving the hardness status of several fundamental weighted matroid problems. One notable example is budgeted matroid independent set, for which we show there is no fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS), indicating the Efficient PTAS of [Doron-Arad, Kulik and Shachnai, SOSA 2023] is the best possible. Furthermore, we show that there is no pseudo-polynomial time algorithm for exact weight matroid independent set, implying the algorithm of [Camerini, Galbiati and Maffioli, J. Algorithms 1992] for representable matroids cannot be generalized to arbitrary matroids. Similarly, we show there is no Fully PTAS for constrained minimum basis of a matroid and knapsack cover with a matroid, implying the existing Efficient PTAS for the former is optimal. For all of the above problems, we obtain unconditional lower bounds in the oracle model, where the independent sets of the matroid can be accessed only via a membership oracle. We complement these results by showing that the same lower bounds hold under standard complexity assumptions, even if the matroid is encoded as part of the instance. All of our bounds are based on a specifically structured family of paving matroids.
Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference -- other unobserved quantities that are not of direct interest (e.g., the full causal model) ought to be marginalized out in this process and contribute to our epistemic uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, which jointly infers a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient, nonlinear additive noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, and update our beliefs to choose the next experiment. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than several baselines that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for the quantities of interest.
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