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Improving road safety is hugely important with the number of deaths on the world's roads remaining unacceptably high; an estimated 1.35 million people die each year (WHO, 2020). Current practice for treating collision hotspots is almost always reactive: once a threshold level of collisions has been exceeded during some predetermined observation period, treatment is applied (e.g. road safety cameras). However, more recently, methodology has been developed to predict collision counts at potential hotspots in future time periods, with a view to a more proactive treatment of road safety hotspots. Dynamic linear models provide a flexible framework for predicting collisions and thus enabling such a proactive treatment. In this paper, we demonstrate how such models can be used to capture both seasonal variability and spatial dependence in time course collision rates at several locations. The model allows for within- and out-of-sample forecasting for locations which are fully observed and for locations where some data are missing. We illustrate our approach using collision rate data from 8 Traffic Administration Zones in North Florida, USA, and find that the model provides a good description of the underlying process and reasonable forecast accuracy.

The proposed method in this paper is designed to address the problem of time series forecasting. Although some exquisitely designed models achieve excellent prediction performances, how to extract more useful information and make accurate predictions is still an open issue. Most of modern models only focus on a short range of information, which are fatal for problems such as time series forecasting which needs to capture long-term information characteristics. As a result, the main concern of this work is to further mine relationship between local and global information contained in time series to produce more precise predictions. In this paper, to satisfactorily realize the purpose, we make three main contributions that are experimentally verified to have performance advantages. Firstly, original time series is transformed into difference sequence which serves as input to the proposed model. And secondly, we introduce the global atrous sliding window into the forecasting model which references the concept of fuzzy time series to associate relevant global information with temporal data within a time period and utilizes central-bidirectional atrous algorithm to capture underlying-related features to ensure validity and consistency of captured data. Thirdly, a variation of widely-used asymmetric convolution which is called semi-asymmetric convolution is devised to more flexibly extract relationships in adjacent elements and corresponding associated global features with adjustable ranges of convolution on vertical and horizontal directions. The proposed model in this paper achieves state-of-the-art on most of time series datasets provided compared with competitive modern models.

Motion prediction for automated vehicles in complex environments is a difficult task that is to be mastered when automated vehicles are to be used in arbitrary situations. Many factors influence the future motion of traffic participants starting with traffic rules and reaching from the interaction between each other to personal habits of human drivers. Therefore we present a novel approach for a graph-based prediction based on a heterogeneous holistic graph representation that combines temporal information, properties and relations between traffic participants as well as relations with static elements like the road network. The information are encoded through different types of nodes and edges that both are enriched with arbitrary features. We evaluated the approach on the INTERACTION and the Argoverse dataset and conducted an informative ablation study to demonstrate the benefit of different types of information for the motion prediction quality.

Latent variable discovery is a central problem in data analysis with a broad range of applications in applied science. In this work, we consider data given as an invertible mixture of two statistically independent components, and assume that one of the components is observed while the other is hidden. Our goal is to recover the hidden component. For this purpose, we propose an autoencoder equipped with a discriminator. Unlike the standard nonlinear ICA problem, which was shown to be non-identifiable, in the special case of ICA we consider here, we show that our approach can recover the component of interest up to entropy-preserving transformation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach on several datasets, including image synthesis, voice cloning, and fetal ECG extraction.

Recently, test-time adaptation (TTA) has been proposed as a promising solution for addressing distribution shifts. It allows a base model to adapt to an unforeseen distribution during inference by leveraging the information from the batch of (unlabeled) test data. However, we uncover a novel security vulnerability of TTA based on the insight that predictions on benign samples can be impacted by malicious samples in the same batch. To exploit this vulnerability, we propose Distribution Invading Attack (DIA), which injects a small fraction of malicious data into the test batch. DIA causes models using TTA to misclassify benign and unperturbed test data, providing an entirely new capability for adversaries that is infeasible in canonical machine learning pipelines. Through comprehensive evaluations, we demonstrate the high effectiveness of our attack on multiple benchmarks across six TTA methods. In response, we investigate two countermeasures to robustify the existing insecure TTA implementations, following the principle of "security by design". Together, we hope our findings can make the community aware of the utility-security tradeoffs in deploying TTA and provide valuable insights for developing robust TTA approaches.

We present a generalized linear structural causal model, coupled with a novel data-adaptive linear regularization, to recover causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from time series. By leveraging a recently developed stochastic monotone Variational Inequality (VI) formulation, we cast the causal discovery problem as a general convex optimization. Furthermore, we develop a non-asymptotic recovery guarantee and quantifiable uncertainty by solving a linear program to establish confidence intervals for a wide range of non-linear monotone link functions. We validate our theoretical results and show the competitive performance of our method via extensive numerical experiments. Most importantly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in recovering highly interpretable causal DAGs over Sepsis Associated Derangements (SADs) while achieving comparable prediction performance to powerful ``black-box'' models such as XGBoost. Thus, the future adoption of our proposed method to conduct continuous surveillance of high-risk patients by clinicians is much more likely.

Foundation models are redefining how AI systems are built. Practitioners now follow a standard procedure to build their machine learning solutions: from a pre-trained foundation model, they fine-tune the weights on the target task of interest. So, the Internet is swarmed by a handful of foundation models fine-tuned on many diverse tasks: these individual fine-tunings exist in isolation without benefiting from each other. In our opinion, this is a missed opportunity, as these specialized models contain rich and diverse features. In this paper, we thus propose model ratatouille, a new strategy to recycle the multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model on diverse auxiliary tasks. Specifically, we repurpose these auxiliary weights as initializations for multiple parallel fine-tunings on the target task; then, we average all fine-tuned weights to obtain the final model. This recycling strategy aims at maximizing the diversity in weights by leveraging the diversity in auxiliary tasks. Empirically, it improves the state of the art on the reference DomainBed benchmark for out-of-distribution generalization. Looking forward, this work contributes to the emerging paradigm of updatable machine learning where, akin to open-source software development, the community collaborates to reliably update machine learning models.

Human visual perception can easily generalize to out-of-distributed visual data, which is far beyond the capability of modern machine learning models. Domain generalization (DG) aims to close this gap, with existing DG methods mainly focusing on the loss function design. In this paper, we propose to explore an orthogonal direction, i.e., the design of the backbone architecture. It is motivated by an empirical finding that transformer-based models trained with empirical risk minimization (ERM) outperform CNN-based models employing state-of-the-art (SOTA) DG algorithms on multiple DG datasets. We develop a formal framework to characterize a network's robustness to distribution shifts by studying its architecture's alignment with the correlations in the dataset. This analysis guides us to propose a novel DG model built upon vision transformers, namely Generalizable Mixture-of-Experts (GMoE). Extensive experiments on DomainBed demonstrate that GMoE trained with ERM outperforms SOTA DG baselines by a large margin. Moreover, GMoE is complementary to existing DG methods and its performance is substantially improved when trained with DG algorithms.

Along with the massive growth of the Internet from the 1990s until now, various innovative technologies have been created to bring users breathtaking experiences with more virtual interactions in cyberspace. Many virtual environments with thousands of services and applications, from social networks to virtual gaming worlds, have been developed with immersive experience and digital transformation, but most are incoherent instead of being integrated into a platform. In this context, metaverse, a term formed by combining meta and universe, has been introduced as a shared virtual world that is fueled by many emerging technologies, such as fifth-generation networks and beyond, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence (AI). Among such technologies, AI has shown the great importance of processing big data to enhance immersive experience and enable human-like intelligence of virtual agents. In this survey, we make a beneficial effort to explore the role of AI in the foundation and development of the metaverse. We first deliver a preliminary of AI, including machine learning algorithms and deep learning architectures, and its role in the metaverse. We then convey a comprehensive investigation of AI-based methods concerning six technical aspects that have potentials for the metaverse: natural language processing, machine vision, blockchain, networking, digital twin, and neural interface, and being potential for the metaverse. Subsequently, several AI-aided applications, such as healthcare, manufacturing, smart cities, and gaming, are studied to be deployed in the virtual worlds. Finally, we conclude the key contribution of this survey and open some future research directions in AI for the metaverse.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, Evolutionary State Graph Network models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.