The use of machine-learning techniques has grown in numerous research areas. Currently, it is also widely used in statistics, including the official statistics for data collection (e.g. satellite imagery, web scraping and text mining, data cleaning, integration and imputation) but also for data analysis. However, the usage of these methods in survey sampling including small area estimation is still very limited. Therefore, we propose a predictor supported by these algorithms which can be used to predict any population or subpopulation characteristics based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Machine learning methods have already been shown to be very powerful in identifying and modelling complex and nonlinear relationships between the variables, which means that they have very good properties in case of strong departures from the classic assumptions. Therefore, we analyse the performance of our proposal under a different set-up, in our opinion of greater importance in real-life surveys. We study only small departures from the assumed model, to show that our proposal is a good alternative in this case as well, even in comparison with optimal methods under the model. What is more, we propose the method of the accuracy estimation of machine learning predictors, giving the possibility of the accuracy comparison with classic methods, where the accuracy is measured as in survey sampling practice. The solution of this problem is indicated in the literature as one of the key issues in integration of these approaches. The simulation studies are based on a real, longitudinal dataset, freely available from the Polish Local Data Bank, where the prediction problem of subpopulation characteristics in the last period, with "borrowing strength" from other subpopulations and time periods, is considered.
We study the approximation and learning capacities of convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Our first result proves a new approximation bound for CNNs with certain constraint on the weights. Our second result gives a new analysis on the covering number of feed-forward neural networks, which include CNNs as special cases. The analysis carefully takes into account the size of the weights and hence gives better bounds than existing literature in some situations. Using these two results, we are able to derive rates of convergence for estimators based on CNNs in many learning problems. In particular, we establish minimax optimal convergence rates of the least squares based on CNNs for learning smooth functions in the nonparametric regression setting. For binary classification, we derive convergence rates for CNN classifiers with hinge loss and logistic loss. It is also shown that the obtained rates are minimax optimal in several settings.
We address the problem of the best uniform approximation of a continuous function on a convex domain. The approximation is by linear combinations of a finite system of functions (not necessarily Chebyshev) under arbitrary linear constraints. By modifying the concept of alternance and of the Remez iterative procedure we present a method, which demonstrates its efficiency in numerical problems. The linear rate of convergence is proved under some favourable assumptions. A special attention is paid to systems of complex exponents, Gaussian functions, lacunar algebraic and trigonometric polynomials. Applications to signal processing, linear ODE, switching dynamical systems, and to Markov-Bernstein type inequalities are considered.
We propose a method for obtaining parsimonious decompositions of networks into higher order interactions which can take the form of arbitrary motifs.The method is based on a class of analytically solvable generative models, where vertices are connected via explicit copies of motifs, which in combination with non-parametric priors allow us to infer higher order interactions from dyadic graph data without any prior knowledge on the types or frequencies of such interactions. Crucially, we also consider 'degree--corrected' models that correctly reflect the degree distribution of the network and consequently prove to be a better fit for many real world--networks compared to non-degree corrected models. We test the presented approach on simulated data for which we recover the set of underlying higher order interactions to a high degree of accuracy. For empirical networks the method identifies concise sets of atomic subgraphs from within thousands of candidates that cover a large fraction of edges and include higher order interactions of known structural and functional significance. The method not only produces an explicit higher order representation of the network but also a fit of the network to analytically tractable models opening new avenues for the systematic study of higher order network structures.
Decision making and learning in the presence of uncertainty has attracted significant attention in view of the increasing need to achieve robust and reliable operations. In the case where uncertainty stems from the presence of adversarial attacks this need is becoming more prominent. In this paper we focus on linear and nonlinear classification problems and propose a novel adversarial training method for robust classifiers, inspired by Support Vector Machine (SVM) margins. We view robustness under a data driven lens, and derive finite sample complexity bounds for both linear and non-linear classifiers in binary and multi-class scenarios. Notably, our bounds match natural classifiers' complexity. Our algorithm minimizes a worst-case surrogate loss using Linear Programming (LP) and Second Order Cone Programming (SOCP) for linear and non-linear models. Numerical experiments on the benchmark MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets show our approach's comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods, without needing adversarial examples during training. Our work offers a comprehensive framework for enhancing binary linear and non-linear classifier robustness, embedding robustness in learning under the presence of adversaries.
Explainable AI is crucial in medical imaging. In the challenging field of neuroscience, visual topics present a high level of complexity, particularly within three-dimensional space. The application of neuroscience, which involves identifying brain sulcal features from MRI, faces significant hurdles due to varying annotation protocols among experts and the intricate three-dimension functionality of the brain. Consequently, traditional explainability approaches fall short in effectively validating and evaluating these networks. To address this, we first present a mathematical formulation delineating various categories of explanation needs across diverse computer vision tasks, categorized into self-explanatory, semi-explanatory, non-explanatory, and new-pattern learning applications based on the reliability of the validation protocol. With respect to this mathematical formulation, we propose a 3D explainability framework aimed at validating the outputs of deep learning networks in detecting the paracingulate sulcus an essential brain anatomical feature. The framework integrates local 3D explanations, global explanations through dimensionality reduction, concatenated global explanations, and statistical shape features, unveiling new insights into pattern learning. We trained and tested two advanced 3D deep learning networks on the challenging TOP-OSLO dataset, significantly improving sulcus detection accuracy, particularly on the left hemisphere. During evaluation with diverse annotation protocols for this dataset, we highlighted the crucial role of an unbiased annotation process in achieving precise predictions and effective pattern learning within our proposed 3D framework. The proposed framework not only annotates the variable sulcus but also uncovers hidden AI knowledge, promising to advance our understanding of brain anatomy and function.
Language models and humans are two types of learning systems. Finding or facilitating commonalities could enable major breakthroughs in our understanding of the acquisition and evolution of language. Many theories of language evolution rely heavily on learning biases and learning pressures. Yet due to substantial differences in learning pressures, it is questionable whether the similarity between humans and machines is sufficient for insights to carry over and to be worth testing with human participants. Here, we review the emergent communication literature, a subfield of multi-agent reinforcement learning, from a language evolution perspective. We find that the emergent communication literature excels at designing and adapting models to recover initially absent linguistic phenomena of natural languages. Based on a short literature review, we identify key pressures that have recovered initially absent human patterns in emergent communication models: communicative success, efficiency, learnability, and other psycho-/sociolinguistic factors. We argue that this may serve as inspiration for how to design language models for language acquisition and language evolution research.
In many application settings, the data have missing entries which make analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing values in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here, we consider supervised-learning settings: predicting a target when missing values appear in both training and testing data. We show the consistency of two approaches in prediction. A striking result is that the widely-used method of imputing with a constant, such as the mean prior to learning is consistent when missing values are not informative. This contrasts with inferential settings where mean imputation is pointed at for distorting the distribution of the data. That such a simple approach can be consistent is important in practice. We also show that a predictor suited for complete observations can predict optimally on incomplete data, through multiple imputation. Finally, to compare imputation with learning directly with a model that accounts for missing values, we analyze further decision trees. These can naturally tackle empirical risk minimization with missing values, due to their ability to handle the half-discrete nature of incomplete variables. After comparing theoretically and empirically different missing values strategies in trees, we recommend using the "missing incorporated in attribute" method as it can handle both non-informative and informative missing values.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
Meta-learning, or learning to learn, has gained renewed interest in recent years within the artificial intelligence community. However, meta-learning is incredibly prevalent within nature, has deep roots in cognitive science and psychology, and is currently studied in various forms within neuroscience. The aim of this review is to recast previous lines of research in the study of biological intelligence within the lens of meta-learning, placing these works into a common framework. More recent points of interaction between AI and neuroscience will be discussed, as well as interesting new directions that arise under this perspective.
Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.