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Calibration is a vital aspect of the performance of risk prediction models, but research in the context of ordinal outcomes is scarce. This study compared calibration measures for risk models predicting a discrete ordinal outcome, and investigated the impact of the proportional odds assumption on calibration and overfitting. We studied the multinomial, cumulative, adjacent category, continuation ratio, and stereotype logit/logistic models. To assess calibration, we investigated calibration intercepts and slopes, calibration plots, and the estimated calibration index. Using large sample simulations, we studied the performance of models for risk estimation under various conditions, assuming that the true model has either a multinomial logistic form or a cumulative logit proportional odds form. Small sample simulations were used to compare the tendency for overfitting between models. As a case study, we developed models to diagnose the degree of coronary artery disease (five categories) in symptomatic patients. When the true model was multinomial logistic, proportional odds models often yielded poor risk estimates, with calibration slopes deviating considerably from unity even on large model development datasets. The stereotype logistic model improved the calibration slope, but still provided biased risk estimates for individual patients. When the true model had a cumulative logit proportional odds form, multinomial logistic regression provided biased risk estimates, although these biases were modest. Non-proportional odds models require more parameters to be estimated from the data, and hence suffered more from overfitting. Despite larger sample size requirements, we generally recommend multinomial logistic regression for risk prediction modeling of discrete ordinal outcomes.

Data imbalance is common in production data, where controlled production settings require data to fall within a narrow range of variation and data are collected with quality assessment in mind, rather than data analytic insights. This imbalance negatively impacts the predictive performance of models on underrepresented observations. We propose sampling to adjust for this imbalance with the goal of improving the performance of models trained on historical production data. We investigate the use of three sampling approaches to adjust for imbalance. The goal is to downsample the covariates in the training data and subsequently fit a regression model. We investigate how the predictive power of the model changes when using either the sampled or the original data for training. We apply our methods on a large biopharmaceutical manufacturing data set from an advanced simulation of penicillin production and find that fitting a model using the sampled data gives a small reduction in the overall predictive performance, but yields a systematically better performance on underrepresented observations. In addition, the results emphasize the need for alternative, fair, and balanced model evaluations.

Sparse Representation (SR) of signals or data has a well founded theory with rigorous mathematical error bounds and proofs. SR of a signal is given by superposition of very few columns of a matrix called Dictionary, implicitly reducing dimensionality. Training dictionaries such that they represent each class of signals with minimal loss is called Dictionary Learning (DL). Dictionary learning methods like Method of Optimal Directions (MOD) and K-SVD have been successfully used in reconstruction based applications in image processing like image "denoising", "inpainting" and others. Other dictionary learning algorithms such as Discriminative K-SVD and Label Consistent K-SVD are supervised learning methods based on K-SVD. In our experience, one of the drawbacks of current methods is that the classification performance is not impressive on datasets like Telugu OCR datasets, with large number of classes and high dimensionality. There is scope for improvement in this direction and many researchers have used statistical methods to design dictionaries for classification. This chapter presents a review of statistical techniques and their application to learning discriminative dictionaries. The objective of the methods described here is to improve classification using sparse representation. In this chapter a hybrid approach is described, where sparse coefficients of input data are generated. We use a simple three layer Multi Layer Perceptron with back-propagation training as a classifier with those sparse codes as input. The results are quite comparable with other computation intensive methods. Keywords: Statistical modeling, Dictionary Learning, Discriminative Dictionary, Sparse representation, Gaussian prior, Cauchy prior, Entropy, Hidden Markov model, Hybrid Dictionary Learning

Automated Scoring (AS), the natural language processing task of scoring essays and speeches in an educational testing setting, is growing in popularity and being deployed across contexts from government examinations to companies providing language proficiency services. However, existing systems either forgo human raters entirely, thus harming the reliability of the test, or score every response by both human and machine thereby increasing costs. We target the spectrum of possible solutions in between, making use of both humans and machines to provide a higher quality test while keeping costs reasonable to democratize access to AS. In this work, we propose a combination of the existing paradigms, sampling responses to be scored by humans intelligently. We propose reward sampling and observe significant gains in accuracy (19.80% increase on average) and quadratic weighted kappa (QWK) (25.60% on average) with a relatively small human budget (30% samples) using our proposed sampling. The accuracy increase observed using standard random and importance sampling baselines are 8.6% and 12.2% respectively. Furthermore, we demonstrate the system's model agnostic nature by measuring its performance on a variety of models currently deployed in an AS setting as well as pseudo models. Finally, we propose an algorithm to estimate the accuracy/QWK with statistical guarantees (Our code is available at //git.io/J1IOy).

The four essential chambers of one's heart that lie in the thoracic cavity are crucial for one's survival, yet ironically prove to be the most vulnerable. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) also commonly referred to as heart disease has steadily grown to the leading cause of death amongst humans over the past few decades. Taking this concerning statistic into consideration, it is evident that patients suffering from CVDs need a quick and correct diagnosis in order to facilitate early treatment to lessen the chances of fatality. This paper attempts to utilize the data provided to train classification models such as Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Multi-Layer Perceptron (Artificial Neural Network) and eventually using a soft voting ensemble technique in order to attain as many correct diagnoses as possible.

Fact-checking has become increasingly important due to the speed with which both information and misinformation can spread in the modern media ecosystem. Therefore, researchers have been exploring how fact-checking can be automated, using techniques based on natural language processing, machine learning, knowledge representation, and databases to automatically predict the veracity of claims. In this paper, we survey automated fact-checking stemming from natural language processing, and discuss its connections to related tasks and disciplines. In this process, we present an overview of existing datasets and models, aiming to unify the various definitions given and identify common concepts. Finally, we highlight challenges for future research.

Learning low-dimensional representations for entities and relations in knowledge graphs using contrastive estimation represents a scalable and effective method for inferring connectivity patterns. A crucial aspect of contrastive learning approaches is the choice of corruption distribution that generates hard negative samples, which force the embedding model to learn discriminative representations and find critical characteristics of observed data. While earlier methods either employ too simple corruption distributions, i.e. uniform, yielding easy uninformative negatives or sophisticated adversarial distributions with challenging optimization schemes, they do not explicitly incorporate known graph structure resulting in suboptimal negatives. In this paper, we propose Structure Aware Negative Sampling (SANS), an inexpensive negative sampling strategy that utilizes the rich graph structure by selecting negative samples from a node's k-hop neighborhood. Empirically, we demonstrate that SANS finds high-quality negatives that are highly competitive with SOTA methods, and requires no additional parameters nor difficult adversarial optimization.

Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a widely used tool for machine learning in distributed settings, where a machine learning model is trained over distributed data sources through an interactive process of local computation and message passing. Such an iterative process could cause privacy concerns of data owners. The goal of this paper is to provide differential privacy for ADMM-based distributed machine learning. Prior approaches on differentially private ADMM exhibit low utility under high privacy guarantee and often assume the objective functions of the learning problems to be smooth and strongly convex. To address these concerns, we propose a novel differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithm called DP-ADMM, which combines an approximate augmented Lagrangian function with time-varying Gaussian noise addition in the iterative process to achieve higher utility for general objective functions under the same differential privacy guarantee. We also apply the moments accountant method to bound the end-to-end privacy loss. The theoretical analysis shows that DP-ADMM can be applied to a wider class of distributed learning problems, is provably convergent, and offers an explicit utility-privacy tradeoff. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide explicit convergence and utility properties for differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithms. The evaluation results demonstrate that our approach can achieve good convergence and model accuracy under high end-to-end differential privacy guarantee.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.

In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.