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Gaussian process hyperparameter optimization requires linear solves with, and log-determinants of, large kernel matrices. Iterative numerical techniques are becoming popular to scale to larger datasets, relying on the conjugate gradient method (CG) for the linear solves and stochastic trace estimation for the log-determinant. This work introduces new algorithmic and theoretical insights for preconditioning these computations. While preconditioning is well understood in the context of CG, we demonstrate that it can also accelerate convergence and reduce variance of the estimates for the log-determinant and its derivative. We prove general probabilistic error bounds for the preconditioned computation of the log-determinant, log-marginal likelihood and its derivatives. Additionally, we derive specific rates for a range of kernel-preconditioner combinations, showing that up to exponential convergence can be achieved. Our theoretical results enable provably efficient optimization of kernel hyperparameters, which we validate empirically on large-scale benchmark problems. There our approach accelerates training by up to an order of magnitude.

Bilevel optimization, the problem of minimizing a value function which involves the arg-minimum of another function, appears in many areas of machine learning. In a large scale setting where the number of samples is huge, it is crucial to develop stochastic methods, which only use a few samples at a time to progress. However, computing the gradient of the value function involves solving a linear system, which makes it difficult to derive unbiased stochastic estimates. To overcome this problem we introduce a novel framework, in which the solution of the inner problem, the solution of the linear system, and the main variable evolve at the same time. These directions are written as a sum, making it straightforward to derive unbiased estimates. The simplicity of our approach allows us to develop global variance reduction algorithms, where the dynamics of all variables is subject to variance reduction. We demonstrate that SABA, an adaptation of the celebrated SAGA algorithm in our framework, has $O(\frac1T)$ convergence rate, and that it achieves linear convergence under Polyak-Lojasciewicz assumption. This is the first stochastic algorithm for bilevel optimization that verifies either of these properties. Numerical experiments validate the usefulness of our method.

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to compute the posterior marginal probabilities of models and individual covariates. This allows performing Bayesian model selection and model averaging. For large sample sizes, even the Laplace approximation becomes computationally challenging because the optimisation routine involved needs to evaluate the likelihood on the full set of data in multiple iterations. As a consequence, the algorithm is not scalable for large datasets. To address this problem, we suggest using a version of a popular batch stochastic gradient descent (BSGD) algorithm for estimating the marginal likelihood of a GLM by subsampling from the data. We further combine the algorithm with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods for Bayesian model selection and provide some theoretical results on the convergence of the estimates. Finally, we report results from experiments illustrating the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Variational Bayesian inference is an important machine-learning tool that finds application from statistics to robotics. The goal is to find an approximate probability density function (PDF) from a chosen family that is in some sense 'closest' to the full Bayesian posterior. Closeness is typically defined through the selection of an appropriate loss functional such as the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In this paper, we explore a new formulation of variational inference by exploiting the fact that (most) PDFs are members of a Bayesian Hilbert space under careful definitions of vector addition, scalar multiplication and an inner product. We show that variational inference based on KL divergence then amounts to an iterative projection, in the Euclidean sense, of the Bayesian posterior onto a subspace corresponding to the selected approximation family. We work through the details of this general framework for the specific case of the Gaussian approximation family and show the equivalence to another Gaussian variational inference approach. We furthermore discuss the implications for systems that exhibit sparsity, which is handled naturally in Bayesian space, and give an example of a high-dimensional robotic state estimation problem that can be handled as a result. Finally, we provide some preliminary examples of how the approach could be applied to non-Gaussian inference.

In recent years, the literature on Bayesian high-dimensional variable selection has rapidly grown. It is increasingly important to understand whether these Bayesian methods can consistently estimate the model parameters. To this end, shrinkage priors are useful for identifying relevant signals in high-dimensional data. For multivariate linear regression models with Gaussian response variables, Bai and Ghosh (2018) proposed a multivariate Bayesian model with shrinkage priors (MBSP) for estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional settings. However, the proofs of posterior consistency for the MBSP method (Theorems 3 and 4 of Bai and Ghosh (2018) were incorrect. In this paper, we provide a corrected proof of Theorems 3 and 4 of Bai and Ghosh (2018). We leverage these new proofs to extend the MBSP model to multivariate generalized linear models (GLMs). Under our proposed model (MBSP-GLM), multiple responses belonging to the exponential family are simultaneously modeled and mixed-type responses are allowed. We show that the MBSP-GLM model achieves strong posterior consistency when $p$ grows at a subexponential rate with $n$. Furthermore, we quantify the posterior contraction rate at which the posterior shrinks around the true regression coefficients and allow the dimension of the responses $q$ to grow as $n$ grows. Thus, we strengthen the previous results on posterior consistency, which did not provide rate results. This greatly expands the scope of the MBSP model to include response variables of many data types, including binary and count data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first posterior contraction result for multivariate Bayesian GLMs.

Second-order optimization methods are among the most widely used optimization approaches for convex optimization problems, and have recently been used to optimize non-convex optimization problems such as deep learning models. The widely used second-order optimization methods such as quasi-Newton methods generally provide curvature information by approximating the Hessian using the secant equation. However, the secant equation becomes insipid in approximating the Newton step owing to its use of the first-order derivatives. In this study, we propose an approximate Newton sketch-based stochastic optimization algorithm for large-scale empirical risk minimization. Specifically, we compute a partial column Hessian of size ($d\times m$) with $m\ll d$ randomly selected variables, then use the \emph{Nystr\"om method} to better approximate the full Hessian matrix. To further reduce the computational complexity per iteration, we directly compute the update step ($\Delta\boldsymbol{w}$) without computing and storing the full Hessian or its inverse. We then integrate our approximated Hessian with stochastic gradient descent and stochastic variance-reduced gradient methods. The results of numerical experiments on both convex and non-convex functions show that the proposed approach was able to obtain a better approximation of Newton\textquotesingle s method, exhibiting performance competitive with that of state-of-the-art first-order and stochastic quasi-Newton methods. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical convergence analysis for convex functions.

A kernel method for estimating a probability density function (pdf) from an i.i.d. sample drawn from such density is presented. Our estimator is a linear combination of kernel functions, the coefficients of which are determined by a linear equation. An error analysis for the mean integrated squared error is established in a general reproducing kernel Hilbert space setting. The theory developed is then applied to estimate pdfs belonging to weighted Korobov spaces, for which a dimension independent convergence rate is established. Under a suitable smoothness assumption, our method attains a rate arbitrarily close to the optimal rate. Numerical results support our theory.

The conventional approach to data-driven inversion framework is based on Gaussian statistics that presents serious difficulties, especially in the presence of outliers in the measurements. In this work, we present maximum likelihood estimators associated with generalized Gaussian distributions in the context of R\'enyi, Tsallis and Kaniadakis statistics. In this regard, we analytically analyse the outlier-resistance of each proposal through the so-called influence function. In this way, we formulate inverse problems by constructing objective functions linked to the maximum likelihood estimators. To demonstrate the robustness of the generalized methodologies, we consider an important geophysical inverse problem with high noisy data with spikes. The results reveal that the best data inversion performance occurs when the entropic index from each generalized statistic is associated with objective functions proportional to the inverse of the error amplitude. We argue that in such a limit the three approaches are resistant to outliers and are also equivalent, which suggests a lower computational cost for the inversion process due to the reduction of numerical simulations to be performed and the fast convergence of the optimization process.

Generalized linear models are flexible tools for the analysis of diverse datasets, but the classical formulation requires that the parametric component is correctly specified and the data contain no atypical observations. To address these shortcomings we introduce and study a family of nonparametric full rank and lower rank spline estimators that result from the minimization of a penalized power divergence. The proposed class of estimators is easily implementable, offers high protection against outlying observations and can be tuned for arbitrarily high efficiency in the case of clean data. We show that under weak assumptions these estimators converge at a fast rate and illustrate their highly competitive performance on a simulation study and two real-data examples.

Partially inspired by successful applications of variational recurrent neural networks, we propose a novel variational recurrent neural machine translation (VRNMT) model in this paper. Different from the variational NMT, VRNMT introduces a series of latent random variables to model the translation procedure of a sentence in a generative way, instead of a single latent variable. Specifically, the latent random variables are included into the hidden states of the NMT decoder with elements from the variational autoencoder. In this way, these variables are recurrently generated, which enables them to further capture strong and complex dependencies among the output translations at different timesteps. In order to deal with the challenges in performing efficient posterior inference and large-scale training during the incorporation of latent variables, we build a neural posterior approximator, and equip it with a reparameterization technique to estimate the variational lower bound. Experiments on Chinese-English and English-German translation tasks demonstrate that the proposed model achieves significant improvements over both the conventional and variational NMT models.