亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

Computer model calibration involves using partial and imperfect observations of the real world to learn which values of a model's input parameters lead to outputs that are consistent with real-world observations. When calibrating models with high-dimensional output (e.g. a spatial field), it is common to represent the output as a linear combination of a small set of basis vectors. Often, when trying to calibrate to such output, what is important to the credibility of the model is that key emergent physical phenomena are represented, even if not faithfully or in the right place. In these cases, comparison of model output and data in a linear subspace is inappropriate and will usually lead to poor model calibration. To overcome this, we present kernel-based history matching (KHM), generalising the meaning of the technique sufficiently to be able to project model outputs and observations into a higher-dimensional feature space, where patterns can be compared without their location necessarily being fixed. We develop the technical methodology, present an expert-driven kernel selection algorithm, and then apply the techniques to the calibration of boundary layer clouds for the French climate model IPSL-CM.

This work presents a comparative study to numerically compute impulse approximate controls for parabolic equations with various boundary conditions. Theoretical controllability results have been recently investigated using a logarithmic convexity estimate at a single time based on a Carleman commutator approach. We propose a numerical algorithm for computing the impulse controls with minimal $L^2$-norms by adapting a penalized Hilbert Uniqueness Method (HUM) combined with a Conjugate Gradient (CG) method. We consider static boundary conditions (Dirichlet and Neumann) and dynamic boundary conditions. Some numerical experiments based on our developed algorithm are given to validate and compare the theoretical impulse controllability results.

Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving rise to $m$ conformal $p$-values. {While classical results only concern their marginal distribution, we show that their joint distribution follows a P\'olya urn model, and establish a concentration inequality for their empirical distribution function.} The results hold for arbitrary exchangeable scores, including {\it adaptive} ones that can use the covariates of the test+calibration samples at training stage for increased accuracy. We demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical results through uniform, in-probability guarantees for two machine learning tasks of current interest: interval prediction for transductive transfer learning and novelty detection based on two-class classification.

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations, it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with the surrogate, but this can result in bias and poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and produce more accurate uncertainty quantification. We do this by optimizing a transform of the approximate posterior that maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We demonstrate good performance of the new method on several examples of increasing complexity.

The fundamental computational issues in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) stem from the requirement of repeated forward model evaluations. A popular strategy to reduce such cost is to replace expensive model simulations by computationally efficient approximations using operator learning, motivated by recent progresses in deep learning. However, using the approximated model directly may introduce a modeling error, exacerbating the already ill-posedness of inverse problems. Thus, balancing between accuracy and efficiency is essential for the effective implementation of such approaches. To this end, we develop an adaptive operator learning framework that can reduce modeling error gradually by forcing the surrogate to be accurate in local areas. This is accomplished by fine-tuning the pre-trained approximate model during the inversion process with adaptive points selected by a greedy algorithm, which requires only a few forward model evaluations. To validate our approach, we adopt DeepOnet to construct the surrogate and use unscented Kalman inversion (UKI) to approximate the solution of BIPs, respectively. Furthermore, we present rigorous convergence guarantee in the linear case using the framework of UKI. We test the approach on several benchmarks, including the Darcy flow, the heat source inversion problem, and the reaction diffusion problems. Numerical results demonstrate that our method can significantly reduce computational costs while maintaining inversion accuracy.

We construct a bipartite generalization of Alon and Szegedy's nearly orthogonal vectors, thereby obtaining strong bounds for several extremal problems involving the Lov\'asz theta function, vector chromatic number, minimum semidefinite rank, nonnegative rank, and extension complexity of polytopes. In particular, we derive some general lower bounds for the vector chromatic number which may be of independent interest.

Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We argue that this lead to a form of instability that lies at the heart of their generative capabilities and that can be described by a set of mean field critical exponents. We conclude by analyzing recent work connecting diffusion models and associative memory networks in view of the thermodynamic formulations.

Bayesian optimal design of experiments is a well-established approach to planning experiments. Briefly, a probability distribution, known as a statistical model, for the responses is assumed which is dependent on a vector of unknown parameters. A utility function is then specified which gives the gain in information for estimating the true value of the parameters using the Bayesian posterior distribution. A Bayesian optimal design is given by maximising the expectation of the utility with respect to the joint distribution given by the statistical model and prior distribution for the true parameter values. The approach takes account of the experimental aim via specification of the utility and of all assumed sources of uncertainty via the expected utility. However, it is predicated on the specification of the statistical model. Recently, a new type of statistical inference, known as Gibbs (or General Bayesian) inference, has been advanced. This is Bayesian-like, in that uncertainty on unknown quantities is represented by a posterior distribution, but does not necessarily rely on specification of a statistical model. Thus the resulting inference should be less sensitive to misspecification of the statistical model. The purpose of this paper is to propose Gibbs optimal design: a framework for optimal design of experiments for Gibbs inference. The concept behind the framework is introduced along with a computational approach to find Gibbs optimal designs in practice. The framework is demonstrated on exemplars including linear models, and experiments with count and time-to-event responses.

When multiple self-adaptive systems share the same environment and have common goals, they may coordinate their adaptations at runtime to avoid conflicts and to satisfy their goals. There are two approaches to coordination. (1) Logically centralized, where a supervisor has complete control over the individual self-adaptive systems. Such approach is infeasible when the systems have different owners or administrative domains. (2) Logically decentralized, where coordination is achieved through direct interactions. Because the individual systems have control over the information they share, decentralized coordination accommodates multiple administrative domains. However, existing techniques do not account simultaneously for both local concerns, e.g., preferences, and shared concerns, e.g., conflicts, which may lead to goals not being achieved as expected. Our idea to address this shortcoming is to express both types of concerns within the same constraint optimization problem. We propose CoADAPT, a decentralized coordination technique introducing two types of constraints: preference constraints, expressing local concerns, and consistency constraints, expressing shared concerns. At runtime, the problem is solved in a decentralized way using distributed constraint optimization algorithms implemented by each self-adaptive system. As a first step in realizing CoADAPT, we focus in this work on the coordination of adaptation planning strategies, traditionally addressed only with centralized techniques. We show the feasibility of CoADAPT in an exemplar from cloud computing and analyze experimentally its scalability.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.