We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the system's solution is above a threshold. If the threshold is large, this probability is small and its accurate estimation is challenging. To tackle this difficulty, we blend theoretical results from large deviation theory (LDT) with numerical tools from PDE-constrained optimization. Our methods first compute parameters that minimize the LDT-rate function over the set of parameters leading to extreme events, using adjoint methods to compute the gradient of this rate function. The minimizers give information about the mechanism of the extreme events as well as estimates of their probability. We then propose a series of methods to refine these estimates, either via importance sampling or geometric approximation of the extreme event sets. Results are formulated for general parameter distributions and detailed expressions are provided when Gaussian distributions. We give theoretical and numerical arguments showing that the performance of our methods is insensitive to the extremeness of the events we are interested in. We illustrate the application of our approach to quantify the probability of extreme tsunami events on shore. Tsunamis are typically caused by a sudden, unpredictable change of the ocean floor elevation during an earthquake. We model this change as a random process, which takes into account the underlying physics. We use the one-dimensional shallow water equation to model tsunamis numerically. In the context of this example, we present a comparison of our methods for extreme event probability estimation, and find which type of ocean floor elevation change leads to the largest tsunamis on shore.
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The rise of AI in human contexts places new demands on automated systems to be transparent and explainable. We examine some anthropomorphic ideas and principles relevant to such accountablity in order to develop a theoretical framework for thinking about digital systems in complex human contexts and the problem of explaining their behaviour. Structurally, systems are made of modular and hierachical components, which we abstract in a new system model using notions of modes and mode transitions. A mode is an independent component of the system with its own objectives, monitoring data, and algorithms. The behaviour of a mode, including its transitions to other modes, is determined by functions that interpret each mode's monitoring data in the light of its objectives and algorithms. We show how these belief functions can help explain system behaviour by visualising their evaluation as trajectories in higher-dimensional geometric spaces. These ideas are formalised mathematically by abstract and concrete simplicial complexes. We offer three techniques: a framework for design heuristics, a general system theory based on modes, and a geometric visualisation, and apply them in three types of human-centred systems.
Deep neural network models for image segmentation can be a powerful tool for the automation of motor claims handling processes in the insurance industry. A crucial aspect is the reliability of the model outputs when facing adverse conditions, such as low quality photos taken by claimants to document damages. We explore the use of a meta-classification model to assess the precision of segments predicted by a model trained for the semantic segmentation of car body parts. Different sets of features correlated with the quality of a segment are compared, and an AUROC score of 0.915 is achieved for distinguishing between high- and low-quality segments. By removing low-quality segments, the average mIoU of the segmentation output is improved by 16 percentage points and the number of wrongly predicted segments is reduced by 77%.
Auditory spatial attention detection (ASAD) aims to decode the attended spatial location with EEG in a multiple-speaker setting. ASAD methods are inspired by the brain lateralization of cortical neural responses during the processing of auditory spatial attention, and show promising performance for the task of auditory attention decoding (AAD) with neural recordings. In the previous ASAD methods, the spatial distribution of EEG electrodes is not fully exploited, which may limit the performance of these methods. In the present work, by transforming the original EEG channels into a two-dimensional (2D) spatial topological map, the EEG data is transformed into a three-dimensional (3D) arrangement containing spatial-temporal information. And then a 3D deep convolutional neural network (DenseNet-3D) is used to extract temporal and spatial features of the neural representation for the attended locations. The results show that the proposed method achieves higher decoding accuracy than the state-of-the-art (SOTA) method (94.3% compared to XANet's 90.6%) with 1-second decision window for the widely used KULeuven (KUL) dataset, and the code to implement our work is available on Github: //github.com/xuxiran/ASAD_DenseNet
We present accurate and mathematically consistent formulations of a diffuse-interface model for two-phase flow problems involving rapid evaporation. The model addresses challenges including discontinuities in the density field by several orders of magnitude, leading to high velocity and pressure jumps across the liquid-vapor interface, along with dynamically changing interface topologies. To this end, we integrate an incompressible Navier--Stokes solver combined with a conservative level-set formulation and a regularized, i.e., diffuse, representation of discontinuities into a matrix-free adaptive finite element framework. The achievements are three-fold: First, this work proposes mathematically consistent definitions for the level-set transport velocity in the diffuse interface region by extrapolating the velocity from the liquid or gas phase, which exhibit superior prediction accuracy for the evaporated mass and the resulting interface dynamics compared to a local velocity evaluation, especially for highly curved interfaces. Second, we show that accurate prediction of the evaporation-induced pressure jump requires a consistent, namely a reciprocal, density interpolation across the interface, which satisfies local mass conservation. Third, the combination of diffuse interface models for evaporation with standard Stokes-type constitutive relations for viscous flows leads to significant pressure artifacts in the diffuse interface region. To mitigate these, we propose a modification for such constitutive model types. Through selected analytical and numerical examples, the aforementioned properties are validated. The presented model promises new insights in simulation-based prediction of melt-vapor interactions in thermal multiphase flows such as in laser-based powder bed fusion of metals.
Rewriting logic and its implementation Maude are a natural and expressive framework for the specification of concurrent systems and logics. Its nondeterministic local transformations are described by rewriting rules, which can be controlled at a higher level using a builtin strategy language added to Maude~3. This specification resource would not be of much interest without tools to analyze their models, so in a previous work, we extended the Maude LTL model checker to verify strategy-controlled systems. In this paper, CTL* and $\mu$-calculus are added to the repertoire of supported logics, after discussing which adaptations are needed for branching-time properties. The new extension relies on some external model checkers that are exposed the Maude models through general and efficient connections, profitable for future extensions and further applications. The performance of these model checkers is compared.
It is well-known that a multilinear system with a nonsingular M-tensor and a positive right-hand side has a unique positive solution. Tensor splitting methods generalizing the classical iterative methods for linear systems have been proposed for finding the unique positive solution. The Alternating Anderson-Richardson (AAR) method is an effective method to accelerate the classical iterative methods. In this study, we apply the idea of AAR for finding the unique positive solution quickly. We first present a tensor Richardson method based on tensor regular splittings, then apply Anderson acceleration to the tensor Richardson method and derive a tensor Anderson-Richardson method, finally, we periodically employ the tensor Anderson-Richardson method within the tensor Richardson method and propose a tensor AAR method. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method is effective in accelerating tensor splitting methods.
The numerical solution of continuum damage mechanics (CDM) problems suffers from convergence-related challenges during the material softening stage, and consequently existing iterative solvers are subject to a trade-off between computational expense and solution accuracy. In this work, we present a novel unified arc-length (UAL) method, and we derive the formulation of the analytical tangent matrix and governing system of equations for both local and non-local gradient damage problems. Unlike existing versions of arc-length solvers that monolithically scale the external force vector, the proposed method treats the latter as an independent variable and determines the position of the system on the equilibrium path based on all the nodal variations of the external force vector. This approach renders the proposed solver substantially more efficient and robust than existing solvers used in CDM problems. We demonstrate the considerable advantages of the proposed algorithm through several benchmark 1D problems with sharp snap-backs and 2D examples under various boundary conditions and loading scenarios. The proposed UAL approach exhibits a superior ability of overcoming critical increments along the equilibrium path. Moreover, in the presented examples, the proposed UAL method is 1-2 orders of magnitude faster than force-controlled arc-length and monolithic Newton-Raphson solvers.
We study knowable informational dependence between empirical questions, modeled as continuous functional dependence between variables in a topological setting. We also investigate epistemic independence in topological terms and show that it is compatible with functional (but non-continuous) dependence. We then proceed to study a stronger notion of knowability based on uniformly continuous dependence. On the technical logical side, we determine the complete logics of languages that combine general functional dependence, continuous dependence, and uniformly continuous dependence.
Building robust, interpretable, and secure AI system requires quantifying and representing uncertainty under a probabilistic perspective to mimic human cognitive abilities. However, probabilistic computation presents significant challenges for most conventional artificial neural network, as they are essentially implemented in a deterministic manner. In this paper, we develop an efficient probabilistic computation framework by truncating the probabilistic representation of neural activation up to its mean and covariance and construct a moment neural network that encapsulates the nonlinear coupling between the mean and covariance of the underlying stochastic network. We reveal that when only the mean but not the covariance is supervised during gradient-based learning, the unsupervised covariance spontaneously emerges from its nonlinear coupling with the mean and faithfully captures the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Our findings highlight the inherent simplicity of probabilistic computation by seamlessly incorporating uncertainty into model prediction, paving the way for integrating it into large-scale AI systems.
The variational quantum algorithms are crucial for the application of NISQ computers. Such algorithms require short quantum circuits, which are more amenable to implementation on near-term hardware, and many such methods have been developed. One of particular interest is the so-called variational quantum state diagonalization method, which constitutes an important algorithmic subroutine and can be used directly to work with data encoded in quantum states. In particular, it can be applied to discern the features of quantum states, such as entanglement properties of a system, or in quantum machine learning algorithms. In this work, we tackle the problem of designing a very shallow quantum circuit, required in the quantum state diagonalization task, by utilizing reinforcement learning (RL). We use a novel encoding method for the RL-state, a dense reward function, and an $\epsilon$-greedy policy to achieve this. We demonstrate that the circuits proposed by the reinforcement learning methods are shallower than the standard variational quantum state diagonalization algorithm and thus can be used in situations where hardware capabilities limit the depth of quantum circuits. The methods we propose in the paper can be readily adapted to address a wide range of variational quantum algorithms.
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