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Originally introduced as a neural network for ensemble learning, mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become a fundamental building block of highly successful modern deep neural networks for heterogeneous data analysis in several applications, including those in machine learning, statistics, bioinformatics, economics, and medicine. Despite its popularity in practice, a satisfactory level of understanding of the convergence behavior of Gaussian-gated MoE parameter estimation is far from complete. The underlying reason for this challenge is the inclusion of covariates in the Gaussian gating and expert networks, which leads to their intrinsically complex interactions via partial differential equations with respect to their parameters. We address these issues by designing novel Voronoi loss functions to accurately capture heterogeneity in the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for resolving parameter estimation in these models. Our results reveal distinct behaviors of the MLE under two settings: the first setting is when all the location parameters in the Gaussian gating are non-zeros while the second setting is when there exists at least one zero-valued location parameter. Notably, these behaviors can be characterized by the solvability of two different systems of polynomial equations. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to verify our theoretical results.

For large-scale cyber-physical systems, the collaboration of spatially distributed sensors is often needed to perform the state estimation process. Privacy concerns naturally arise from disclosing sensitive measurement signals to a cloud estimator that predicts the system state. To solve this issue, we propose a differentially private set-based estimation protocol that preserves the privacy of the measurement signals. Compared to existing research, our approach achieves less privacy loss and utility loss using a numerically optimized truncated noise distribution. The proposed estimator is perturbed by weaker noise than the analytical approaches in the literature to guarantee the same level of privacy, therefore improving the estimation utility. Numerical and comparison experiments with truncated Laplace noise are presented to support our approach. Zonotopes, a less conservative form of set representation, are used to represent estimation sets, giving set operations a computational advantage. The privacy-preserving noise anonymizes the centers of these estimated zonotopes, concealing the precise positions of the estimated zonotopes.

We consider the problem of authenticated communication over a discrete arbitrarily varying channel where the legitimate parties are unaware of whether or not an adversary is present. When there is no adversary, the channel state always takes a default value $s_0$. When the adversary is present, they may choose the channel state sequence based on a non-causal noisy view of the transmitted codewords and the encoding and decoding scheme. We require that the decoder output the correct message with a high probability when there is no adversary, and either output the correct message or reject the transmission when the adversary is present. Further, we allow the transmitter to employ private randomness during encoding that is known neither to the receiver nor the adversary. Our first result proves a dichotomy property for the capacity for this problem -- the capacity either equals zero or it equals the non-adversarial capacity of the channel. Next, we give a sufficient condition for the capacity for this problem to be positive even when the non-adversarial channel to the receiver is stochastically degraded with respect to the channel to the adversary. Our proofs rely on a connection to a standalone authentication problem, where the goal is to accept or reject a candidate message that is already available to the decoder. Finally, we give examples and compare our sufficient condition with other related conditions known in the literature

Local differential privacy (LDP) is a differential privacy (DP) paradigm in which individuals first apply a DP mechanism to their data (often by adding noise) before transmitting the result to a curator. In this article, we develop methodologies to infer causal effects from locally privatized data under the Rubin Causal Model framework. First, we present frequentist estimators under various privacy scenarios with their variance estimators and plug-in confidence intervals. We show that using a plug-in estimator results in inferior mean-squared error (MSE) compared to minimax lower bounds. In contrast, we show that using a customized privacy mechanism, we can match the lower bound, giving minimax optimal inference. We also develop a Bayesian nonparametric methodology along with a blocked Gibbs sampling algorithm, which can be applied to any of our proposed privacy mechanisms, and which performs especially well in terms of MSE for tight privacy budgets. Finally, we present simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our proposed frequentist and Bayesian methodologies for various privacy budgets, resulting in useful suggestions for performing causal inference for privatized data.

Complex event processing (CEP) is a powerful and increasingly more important tool to analyse data streams for Internet of Things (IoT) applications. These data streams often contain private information that requires proper protection. However, privacy protection in CEP systems is still in its infancy, and most existing privacy-preserving mechanisms (PPMs) are adopted from those designed for data streams. Such approaches undermine the quality of the entire data stream and limit the performance of IoT applications. In this paper, we attempt to break the limitation and establish a new foundation for PPMs of CEP by proposing a novel pattern-level differential privacy (DP) guarantee. We introduce two PPMs that guarantee pattern-level DP. They operate only on data that correlate with private patterns rather than on the entire data stream, leading to higher data quality. One of the PPMs provides adaptive privacy protection and brings more granularity and generalization. We evaluate the performance of the proposed PPMs with two experiments on a real-world dataset and on a synthetic dataset. The results of the experiments indicate that our proposed privacy guarantee and its PPMs can deliver better data quality under equally strong privacy guarantees, compared to multiple well-known PPMs designed for data streams.

There are limited options to estimate the treatment effects of variables which are continuous and measured at multiple time points, particularly if the true dose-response curve should be estimated as closely as possible. However, these situations may be of relevance: in pharmacology, one may be interested in how outcomes of people living with -- and treated for -- HIV, such as viral failure, would vary for time-varying interventions such as different drug concentration trajectories. A challenge for doing causal inference with continuous interventions is that the positivity assumption is typically violated. To address positivity violations, we develop projection functions, which reweigh and redefine the estimand of interest based on functions of the conditional support for the respective interventions. With these functions, we obtain the desired dose-response curve in areas of enough support, and otherwise a meaningful estimand that does not require the positivity assumption. We develop $g$-computation type plug-in estimators for this case. Those are contrasted with g-computation estimators which are applied to continuous interventions without specifically addressing positivity violations, which we propose to be presented with diagnostics. The ideas are illustrated with longitudinal data from HIV positive children treated with an efavirenz-based regimen as part of the CHAPAS-3 trial, which enrolled children $<13$ years in Zambia/Uganda. Simulations show in which situations a standard $g$-computation approach is appropriate, and in which it leads to bias and how the proposed weighted estimation approach then recovers the alternative estimand of interest.

In this work, we show that a pair of entangled qubits can be used to compute a product privately. More precisely, two participants with a private input from a finite field can perform local operations on a shared, Bell-like quantum state, and when these qubits are later sent to a third participant, the third participant can determine the product of the inputs, but without learning more about the individual inputs. We give a concrete way to realize this product computation for arbitrary finite fields of prime order.

We formulate a uniform tail bound for empirical processes indexed by a class of functions, in terms of the individual deviations of the functions rather than the worst-case deviation in the considered class. The tail bound is established by introducing an initial "deflation" step to the standard generic chaining argument. The resulting tail bound has a main complexity component, a variant of Talagrand's $\gamma$ functional for the deflated function class, as well as an instance-dependent deviation term, measured by an appropriately scaled version of a suitable norm. Both of these terms are expressed using certain coefficients formulated based on the relevant cumulant generating functions. We also provide more explicit approximations for the mentioned coefficients, when the function class lies in a given (exponential type) Orlicz space.

Time series forecasting is widely used in business intelligence, e.g., forecast stock market price, sales, and help the analysis of data trend. Most time series of interest are macroscopic time series that are aggregated from microscopic data. However, instead of directly modeling the macroscopic time series, rare literature studied the forecasting of macroscopic time series by leveraging data on the microscopic level. In this paper, we assume that the microscopic time series follow some unknown mixture probabilistic distributions. We theoretically show that as we identify the ground truth latent mixture components, the estimation of time series from each component could be improved because of lower variance, thus benefitting the estimation of macroscopic time series as well. Inspired by the power of Seq2seq and its variants on the modeling of time series data, we propose Mixture of Seq2seq (MixSeq), an end2end mixture model to cluster microscopic time series, where all the components come from a family of Seq2seq models parameterized by different parameters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show the superiority of our approach.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.