The total correlation(TC) is a crucial index to measure the correlation between marginal distribution in multidimensional random variables, and it is frequently applied as an inductive bias in representation learning. Previous research has shown that the TC value can be estimated using mutual information boundaries through decomposition. However, we found through theoretical derivation and qualitative experiments that due to the use of importance sampling in the decomposition process, the bias of TC value estimated based on MI bounds will be amplified when the proposal distribution in the sampling differs significantly from the target distribution. To reduce estimation bias issues, we propose a TC estimation correction model based on supervised learning, which uses the training iteration loss sequence of the TC estimator based on MI bounds as input features to output the true TC value. Experiments show that our proposed method can improve the accuracy of TC estimation and eliminate the variance generated by the TC estimation process.
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The increasing availability of graph-structured data motivates the task of optimising over functions defined on the node set of graphs. Traditional graph search algorithms can be applied in this case, but they may be sample-inefficient and do not make use of information about the function values; on the other hand, Bayesian optimisation is a class of promising black-box solvers with superior sample efficiency, but it has been scarcely been applied to such novel setups. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian optimisation framework that optimises over functions defined on generic, large-scale and potentially unknown graphs. Through the learning of suitable kernels on graphs, our framework has the advantage of adapting to the behaviour of the target function. The local modelling approach further guarantees the efficiency of our method. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world graphs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed optimisation framework.
We show that the two-stage minimum description length (MDL) criterion widely used to estimate linear change-point (CP) models corresponds to the marginal likelihood of a Bayesian model with a specific class of prior distributions. This allows results from the frequentist and Bayesian paradigms to be bridged together. Thanks to this link, one can rely on the consistency of the number and locations of the estimated CPs and the computational efficiency of frequentist methods, and obtain a probability of observing a CP at a given time, compute model posterior probabilities, and select or combine CP methods via Bayesian posteriors. Furthermore, we adapt several CP methods to take advantage of the MDL probabilistic representation. Based on simulated data, we show that the adapted CP methods can improve structural break detection compared to state-of-the-art approaches. Finally, we empirically illustrate the usefulness of combining CP detection methods when dealing with long time series and forecasting.
Demand for reliable statistics at a local area (small area) level has greatly increased in recent years. Traditional area-specific estimators based on probability samples are not adequate because of small sample size or even zero sample size in a local area. As a result, methods based on models linking the areas are widely used. World Bank focused on estimating poverty measures, in particular poverty incidence and poverty gap called FGT measures, using a simulated census method, called ELL, based on a one-fold nested error model for a suitable transformation of the welfare variable. Modified ELL methods leading to significant gain in efficiency over ELL also have been proposed under the one-fold model. An advantage of ELL and modified ELL methods is that distributional assumptions on the random effects in the model are not needed. In this paper, we extend ELL and modified ELL to two-fold nested error models to estimate poverty indicators for areas (say a state) and subareas (say counties within a state). Our simulation results indicate that the modified ELL estimators lead to large efficiency gains over ELL at the area level and subarea level. Further, modified ELL method retaining both area and subarea estimated effects in the model (called MELL2) performs significantly better in terms of mean squared error (MSE) for sampled subareas than the modified ELL retaining only estimated area effect in the model (called MELL1).
In this paper we present a new perspective on error analysis of Legendre approximations for differentiable functions. We start by introducing a sequence of Legendre-Gauss-Lobatto polynomials and prove their theoretical properties, such as an explicit and optimal upper bound. We then apply these properties to derive a new and explicit bound for the Legendre coefficients of differentiable functions and establish some explicit and optimal error bounds for Legendre projections in the $L^2$ and $L^{\infty}$ norms. Illustrative examples are provided to demonstrate the sharpness of our new results.
We propose a new, computationally efficient, sparsity adaptive changepoint estimator for detecting changes in unknown subsets of a high-dimensional data sequence. Assuming the data sequence is Gaussian, we prove that the new method successfully estimates the number and locations of changepoints with a given error rate and under minimal conditions, for all sparsities of the changing subset. Moreover, our method has computational complexity linear up to logarithmic factors in both the length and number of time series, making it applicable to large data sets. Through extensive numerical studies we show that the new methodology is highly competitive in terms of both estimation accuracy and computational cost. The practical usefulness of the method is illustrated by analysing sensor data from a hydro power plant. An efficient R implementation is available.
We study the problem of locally private mean estimation of high-dimensional vectors in the Euclidean ball. Existing algorithms for this problem either incur sub-optimal error or have high communication and/or run-time complexity. We propose a new algorithmic framework, ProjUnit, for private mean estimation that yields algorithms that are computationally efficient, have low communication complexity, and incur optimal error up to a $1+o(1)$-factor. Our framework is deceptively simple: each randomizer projects its input to a random low-dimensional subspace, normalizes the result, and then runs an optimal algorithm such as PrivUnitG in the lower-dimensional space. In addition, we show that, by appropriately correlating the random projection matrices across devices, we can achieve fast server run-time. We mathematically analyze the error of the algorithm in terms of properties of the random projections, and study two instantiations. Lastly, our experiments for private mean estimation and private federated learning demonstrate that our algorithms empirically obtain nearly the same utility as optimal ones while having significantly lower communication and computational cost.
Motivated by various computational applications, we investigate the problem of estimating nested expectations. Building upon recent work by the authors, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator for nested expectations, inspired by sparse grid quadrature, that does not require sampling from inner conditional distributions. Theoretical analysis establishes an upper bound on the mean squared error of our estimator under mild assumptions on the problem, demonstrating its efficiency for cases with low-dimensional outer variables. We illustrate the effectiveness of our estimator through its application to problems related to value of information analysis, with moderate dimensionality. Overall, our method presents a promising approach to efficiently estimate nested expectations in practical computational settings.
In this paper we investigate panel regression models with interactive fixed effects. We propose two new estimation methods that are based on minimizing convex objective functions. The first method minimizes the sum of squared residuals with a nuclear (trace) norm regularization. The second method minimizes the nuclear norm of the residuals. We establish the consistency of the two resulting estimators. Those estimators have a very important computational advantage compared to the existing least squares (LS) estimator, in that they are defined as minimizers of a convex objective function. In addition, the nuclear norm penalization helps to resolve a potential identification problem for interactive fixed effect models, in particular when the regressors are low-rank and the number of the factors is unknown. We also show how to construct estimators that are asymptotically equivalent to the least squares (LS) estimator in Bai (2009) and Moon and Weidner (2017) by using our nuclear norm regularized or minimized estimators as initial values for a finite number of LS minimizing iteration steps. This iteration avoids any non-convex minimization, while the original LS estimation problem is generally non-convex, and can have multiple local minima.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Recent advances in maximizing mutual information (MI) between the source and target have demonstrated its effectiveness in text generation. However, previous works paid little attention to modeling the backward network of MI (i.e., dependency from the target to the source), which is crucial to the tightness of the variational information maximization lower bound. In this paper, we propose Adversarial Mutual Information (AMI): a text generation framework which is formed as a novel saddle point (min-max) optimization aiming to identify joint interactions between the source and target. Within this framework, the forward and backward networks are able to iteratively promote or demote each other's generated instances by comparing the real and synthetic data distributions. We also develop a latent noise sampling strategy that leverages random variations at the high-level semantic space to enhance the long term dependency in the generation process. Extensive experiments based on different text generation tasks demonstrate that the proposed AMI framework can significantly outperform several strong baselines, and we also show that AMI has potential to lead to a tighter lower bound of maximum mutual information for the variational information maximization problem.
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