Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way to use variance-based measures to quantify uncertainty on the basis of second-order distributions in classification problems. A distinctive feature of the measures is the ability to reason about uncertainties on a class-based level, which is useful in situations where nuanced decision-making is required. Recalling some properties from the literature, we highlight that the variance-based measures satisfy important (axiomatic) properties. In addition to this axiomatic approach, we present empirical results showing the measures to be effective and competitive to commonly used entropy-based measures.
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Spatiotemporal predictive learning, which predicts future frames through historical prior knowledge with the aid of deep learning, is widely used in many fields. Previous work essentially improves the model performance by widening or deepening the network, but it also brings surging memory overhead, which seriously hinders the development and application of this technology. In order to improve the performance without increasing memory consumption, we focus on scale, which is another dimension to improve model performance but with low memory requirement. The effectiveness has been widely demonstrated in many CNN-based tasks such as image classification and semantic segmentation, but it has not been fully explored in recent RNN models. In this paper, learning from the benefit of multi-scale, we propose a general framework named Multi-Scale RNN (MS-RNN) to boost recent RNN models for spatiotemporal predictive learning. We verify the MS-RNN framework by thorough theoretical analyses and exhaustive experiments, where the theory focuses on memory reduction and performance improvement while the experiments employ eight RNN models (ConvLSTM, TrajGRU, PredRNN, PredRNN++, MIM, MotionRNN, PredRNN-V2, and PrecipLSTM) and four datasets (Moving MNIST, TaxiBJ, KTH, and Germany). The results show the efficiency that RNN models incorporating our framework have much lower memory cost but better performance than before. Our code is released at \url{//github.com/mazhf/MS-RNN}.
Selecting high-quality pre-training data is important for creating capable language models, but existing methods rely on simple heuristics. We introduce QuRating, a method for selecting pre-training data that captures the abstract qualities of texts which humans intuitively perceive. In this paper, we investigate four qualities - writing style, required expertise, facts & trivia, and educational value. We find that LLMs are able to discern these qualities and observe that they are better at making pairwise judgments of texts than at rating the quality of a text directly. We train a QuRater model to learn scalar ratings from pairwise judgments, and use it to annotate a 260B training corpus with quality ratings for each of the four criteria. In our experiments, we select 30B tokens according to the different quality ratings and train 1.3B-parameter language models on the selected data. We find that it is important to balance quality and diversity, as selecting only the highest-rated documents leads to poor results. When we sample using quality ratings as logits over documents, our models achieve lower perplexity and stronger in-context learning performance than baselines. Beyond data selection, we use the quality ratings to construct a training curriculum which improves performance without changing the training dataset. We extensively analyze the quality ratings and discuss their characteristics, biases, and wider implications.
In the context of deep learning research, where model introductions continually occur, the need for effective and efficient evaluation remains paramount. Existing methods often emphasize accuracy metrics, overlooking stability. To address this, the paper introduces the Accuracy-Stability Index (ASI), a quantitative measure incorporating both accuracy and stability for assessing deep learning models. Experimental results demonstrate the application of ASI, and a 3D surface model is presented for visualizing ASI, mean accuracy, and coefficient of variation. This paper addresses the important issue of quantitative benchmarking metrics for deep learning models, providing a new approach for accurately evaluating accuracy and stability of deep learning models. The paper concludes with discussions on potential weaknesses and outlines future research directions.
Deep model fusion/merging is an emerging technique that merges the parameters or predictions of multiple deep learning models into a single one. It combines the abilities of different models to make up for the biases and errors of a single model to achieve better performance. However, deep model fusion on large-scale deep learning models (e.g., LLMs and foundation models) faces several challenges, including high computational cost, high-dimensional parameter space, interference between different heterogeneous models, etc. Although model fusion has attracted widespread attention due to its potential to solve complex real-world tasks, there is still a lack of complete and detailed survey research on this technique. Accordingly, in order to understand the model fusion method better and promote its development, we present a comprehensive survey to summarize the recent progress. Specifically, we categorize existing deep model fusion methods as four-fold: (1) "Mode connectivity", which connects the solutions in weight space via a path of non-increasing loss, in order to obtain better initialization for model fusion; (2) "Alignment" matches units between neural networks to create better conditions for fusion; (3) "Weight average", a classical model fusion method, averages the weights of multiple models to obtain more accurate results closer to the optimal solution; (4) "Ensemble learning" combines the outputs of diverse models, which is a foundational technique for improving the accuracy and robustness of the final model. In addition, we analyze the challenges faced by deep model fusion and propose possible research directions for model fusion in the future. Our review is helpful in deeply understanding the correlation between different model fusion methods and practical application methods, which can enlighten the research in the field of deep model fusion.
Deep long-tailed learning, one of the most challenging problems in visual recognition, aims to train well-performing deep models from a large number of images that follow a long-tailed class distribution. In the last decade, deep learning has emerged as a powerful recognition model for learning high-quality image representations and has led to remarkable breakthroughs in generic visual recognition. However, long-tailed class imbalance, a common problem in practical visual recognition tasks, often limits the practicality of deep network based recognition models in real-world applications, since they can be easily biased towards dominant classes and perform poorly on tail classes. To address this problem, a large number of studies have been conducted in recent years, making promising progress in the field of deep long-tailed learning. Considering the rapid evolution of this field, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey on recent advances in deep long-tailed learning. To be specific, we group existing deep long-tailed learning studies into three main categories (i.e., class re-balancing, information augmentation and module improvement), and review these methods following this taxonomy in detail. Afterward, we empirically analyze several state-of-the-art methods by evaluating to what extent they address the issue of class imbalance via a newly proposed evaluation metric, i.e., relative accuracy. We conclude the survey by highlighting important applications of deep long-tailed learning and identifying several promising directions for future research.
Classic machine learning methods are built on the $i.i.d.$ assumption that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. However, in real scenarios, the $i.i.d.$ assumption can hardly be satisfied, rendering the sharp drop of classic machine learning algorithms' performances under distributional shifts, which indicates the significance of investigating the Out-of-Distribution generalization problem. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization problem addresses the challenging setting where the testing distribution is unknown and different from the training. This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively discuss the OOD generalization problem, from the definition, methodology, evaluation to the implications and future directions. Firstly, we provide the formal definition of the OOD generalization problem. Secondly, existing methods are categorized into three parts based on their positions in the whole learning pipeline, namely unsupervised representation learning, supervised model learning and optimization, and typical methods for each category are discussed in detail. We then demonstrate the theoretical connections of different categories, and introduce the commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics. Finally, we summarize the whole literature and raise some future directions for OOD generalization problem. The summary of OOD generalization methods reviewed in this survey can be found at //out-of-distribution-generalization.com.
Training machine learning models in a meaningful order, from the easy samples to the hard ones, using curriculum learning can provide performance improvements over the standard training approach based on random data shuffling, without any additional computational costs. Curriculum learning strategies have been successfully employed in all areas of machine learning, in a wide range of tasks. However, the necessity of finding a way to rank the samples from easy to hard, as well as the right pacing function for introducing more difficult data can limit the usage of the curriculum approaches. In this survey, we show how these limits have been tackled in the literature, and we present different curriculum learning instantiations for various tasks in machine learning. We construct a multi-perspective taxonomy of curriculum learning approaches by hand, considering various classification criteria. We further build a hierarchical tree of curriculum learning methods using an agglomerative clustering algorithm, linking the discovered clusters with our taxonomy. At the end, we provide some interesting directions for future work.
Exploration-exploitation is a powerful and practical tool in multi-agent learning (MAL), however, its effects are far from understood. To make progress in this direction, we study a smooth analogue of Q-learning. We start by showing that our learning model has strong theoretical justification as an optimal model for studying exploration-exploitation. Specifically, we prove that smooth Q-learning has bounded regret in arbitrary games for a cost model that explicitly captures the balance between game and exploration costs and that it always converges to the set of quantal-response equilibria (QRE), the standard solution concept for games under bounded rationality, in weighted potential games with heterogeneous learning agents. In our main task, we then turn to measure the effect of exploration in collective system performance. We characterize the geometry of the QRE surface in low-dimensional MAL systems and link our findings with catastrophe (bifurcation) theory. In particular, as the exploration hyperparameter evolves over-time, the system undergoes phase transitions where the number and stability of equilibria can change radically given an infinitesimal change to the exploration parameter. Based on this, we provide a formal theoretical treatment of how tuning the exploration parameter can provably lead to equilibrium selection with both positive as well as negative (and potentially unbounded) effects to system performance.
Transformers have a potential of learning longer-term dependency, but are limited by a fixed-length context in the setting of language modeling. We propose a novel neural architecture Transformer-XL that enables learning dependency beyond a fixed length without disrupting temporal coherence. It consists of a segment-level recurrence mechanism and a novel positional encoding scheme. Our method not only enables capturing longer-term dependency, but also resolves the context fragmentation problem. As a result, Transformer-XL learns dependency that is 80% longer than RNNs and 450% longer than vanilla Transformers, achieves better performance on both short and long sequences, and is up to 1,800+ times faster than vanilla Transformers during evaluation. Notably, we improve the state-of-the-art results of bpc/perplexity to 0.99 on enwiki8, 1.08 on text8, 18.3 on WikiText-103, 21.8 on One Billion Word, and 54.5 on Penn Treebank (without finetuning). When trained only on WikiText-103, Transformer-XL manages to generate reasonably coherent, novel text articles with thousands of tokens. Our code, pretrained models, and hyperparameters are available in both Tensorflow and PyTorch.
Deep learning has emerged as a powerful machine learning technique that learns multiple layers of representations or features of the data and produces state-of-the-art prediction results. Along with the success of deep learning in many other application domains, deep learning is also popularly used in sentiment analysis in recent years. This paper first gives an overview of deep learning and then provides a comprehensive survey of its current applications in sentiment analysis.
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