In this study, we develop an asymptotic theory of nonparametric regression for a locally stationary functional time series. First, we introduce the notion of a locally stationary functional time series (LSFTS) that takes values in a semi-metric space. Then, we propose a nonparametric model for LSFTS with a regression function that changes smoothly over time. We establish the uniform convergence rates of a class of kernel estimators, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator of the regression function, and a central limit theorem of the NW estimator.
相關內容
We study the theory of neural network (NN) from the lens of classical nonparametric regression problems with a focus on NN's ability to adaptively estimate functions with heterogeneous smoothness --- a property of functions in Besov or Bounded Variation (BV) classes. Existing work on this problem requires tuning the NN architecture based on the function spaces and sample sizes. We consider a "Parallel NN" variant of deep ReLU networks and show that the standard weight decay is equivalent to promoting the $\ell_p$-sparsity ($0<p<1$) of the coefficient vector of an end-to-end learned function bases, i.e., a dictionary. Using this equivalence, we further establish that by tuning only the weight decay, such Parallel NN achieves an estimation error arbitrarily close to the minimax rates for both the Besov and BV classes. Notably, it gets exponentially closer to minimax optimal as the NN gets deeper. Our research sheds new lights on why depth matters and how NNs are more powerful than kernel methods.
The hard thresholding technique plays a vital role in the development of algorithms for sparse signal recovery. By merging this technique and heavy-ball acceleration method which is a multi-step extension of the traditional gradient descent method, we propose the so-called heavy-ball-based hard thresholding (HBHT) and heavy-ball-based hard thresholding pursuit (HBHTP) algorithms for signal recovery. It turns out that the HBHT and HBHTP can successfully recover a $k$-sparse signal if the restricted isometry constant of the measurement matrix satisfies $\delta_{3k}<0.618 $ and $\delta_{3k}<0.577,$ respectively. The guaranteed success of HBHT and HBHTP is also shown under the conditions $\delta_{2k}<0.356$ and $\delta_{2k}<0.377,$ respectively. Moreover, the finite convergence and stability of the two algorithms are also established in this paper. Simulations on random problem instances are performed to compare the performance of the proposed algorithms and several existing ones. Empirical results indicate that the HBHTP performs very comparably to a few existing algorithms and it takes less average time to achieve the signal recovery than these existing methods.
Escaping from saddle points and finding local minimum is a central problem in nonconvex optimization. Perturbed gradient methods are perhaps the simplest approach for this problem. However, to find $(\epsilon, \sqrt{\epsilon})$-approximate local minima, the existing best stochastic gradient complexity for this type of algorithms is $\tilde O(\epsilon^{-3.5})$, which is not optimal. In this paper, we propose LENA (Last stEp shriNkAge), a faster perturbed stochastic gradient framework for finding local minima. We show that LENA with stochastic gradient estimators such as SARAH/SPIDER and STORM can find $(\epsilon, \epsilon_{H})$-approximate local minima within $\tilde O(\epsilon^{-3} + \epsilon_{H}^{-6})$ stochastic gradient evaluations (or $\tilde O(\epsilon^{-3})$ when $\epsilon_H = \sqrt{\epsilon}$). The core idea of our framework is a step-size shrinkage scheme to control the average movement of the iterates, which leads to faster convergence to the local minima.
We introduce a new distortion measure for point processes called functional-covering distortion. It is inspired by intensity theory and is related to both the covering of point processes and logarithmic loss distortion. We obtain the distortion-rate function with feedforward under this distortion measure for a large class of point processes. For Poisson processes, the rate-distortion function is obtained under a general condition called constrained functional-covering distortion, of which both covering and functional-covering are special cases. Also for Poisson processes, we characterize the rate-distortion region for a two-encoder CEO problem and show that feedforward does not enlarge this region.
The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data that may not be sparse; however, existing results depend on the independent setting of samples. In this study, we analyze a linear regression model with dependent time series data under over-parameterization settings. We consider an estimator via interpolation and developed a theory for excess risk of the estimator under multiple dependence types. This theory can treat infinite-dimensional data without sparsity and handle long-memory processes in a unified manner. Moreover, we bound the risk in our theory via the integrated covariance and nondegeneracy of autocorrelation matrices. The results show that the convergence rate of risks with short-memory processes is identical to that of cases with independent data, while long-memory processes slow the convergence rate. We also present several examples of specific dependent processes that can be applied to our setting.
Many existing algorithms for streaming geometric data analysis have been plagued by exponential dependencies in the space complexity, which are undesirable for processing high-dimensional data sets. In particular, once $d\geq\log n$, there are no known non-trivial streaming algorithms for problems such as maintaining convex hulls and L\"owner-John ellipsoids of $n$ points, despite a long line of work in streaming computational geometry since [AHV04]. We simultaneously improve these results to $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ bits of space by trading off with a $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ factor distortion. We achieve these results in a unified manner, by designing the first streaming algorithm for maintaining a coreset for $\ell_\infty$ subspace embeddings with $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ space and $\mathrm{poly}(d,\log n)$ distortion. Our algorithm also gives similar guarantees in the \emph{online coreset} model. Along the way, we sharpen results for online numerical linear algebra by replacing a log condition number dependence with a $\log n$ dependence, answering a question of [BDM+20]. Our techniques provide a novel connection between leverage scores, a fundamental object in numerical linear algebra, and computational geometry. For $\ell_p$ subspace embeddings, we give nearly optimal trade-offs between space and distortion for one-pass streaming algorithms. For instance, we give a deterministic coreset using $O(d^2\log n)$ space and $O((d\log n)^{1/2-1/p})$ distortion for $p>2$, whereas previous deterministic algorithms incurred a $\mathrm{poly}(n)$ factor in the space or the distortion [CDW18]. Our techniques have implications in the offline setting, where we give optimal trade-offs between the space complexity and distortion of subspace sketch data structures. To do this, we give an elementary proof of a "change of density" theorem of [LT80] and make it algorithmic.
Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.
We study the acceleration of the Local Polynomial Interpolation-based Gradient Descent method (LPI-GD) recently proposed for the approximate solution of empirical risk minimization problems (ERM). We focus on loss functions that are strongly convex and smooth with condition number $\sigma$. We additionally assume the loss function is $\eta$-H\"older continuous with respect to the data. The oracle complexity of LPI-GD is $\tilde{O}\left(\sigma m^d \log(1/\varepsilon)\right)$ for a desired accuracy $\varepsilon$, where $d$ is the dimension of the parameter space, and $m$ is the cardinality of an approximation grid. The factor $m^d$ can be shown to scale as $O((1/\varepsilon)^{d/2\eta})$. LPI-GD has been shown to have better oracle complexity than gradient descent (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for certain parameter regimes. We propose two accelerated methods for the ERM problem based on LPI-GD and show an oracle complexity of $\tilde{O}\left(\sqrt{\sigma} m^d \log(1/\varepsilon)\right)$. Moreover, we provide the first empirical study on local polynomial interpolation-based gradient methods and corroborate that LPI-GD has better performance than GD and SGD in some scenarios, and the proposed methods achieve acceleration.
In this paper we study the finite sample and asymptotic properties of various weighting estimators of the local average treatment effect (LATE), several of which are based on Abadie (2003)'s kappa theorem. Our framework presumes a binary endogenous explanatory variable ("treatment") and a binary instrumental variable, which may only be valid after conditioning on additional covariates. We argue that one of the Abadie estimators, which we show is weight normalized, is likely to dominate the others in many contexts. A notable exception is in settings with one-sided noncompliance, where certain unnormalized estimators have the advantage of being based on a denominator that is bounded away from zero. We use a simulation study and three empirical applications to illustrate our findings. In applications to causal effects of college education using the college proximity instrument (Card, 1995) and causal effects of childbearing using the sibling sex composition instrument (Angrist and Evans, 1998), the unnormalized estimates are clearly unreasonable, with "incorrect" signs, magnitudes, or both. Overall, our results suggest that (i) the relative performance of different kappa weighting estimators varies with features of the data-generating process; and that (ii) the normalized version of Tan (2006)'s estimator may be an attractive alternative in many contexts. Applied researchers with access to a binary instrumental variable should also consider covariate balancing or doubly robust estimators of the LATE.
The inverse probability (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) estimators are often used to estimate the average causal effect (ATE), but are vulnerable to outliers. The IPW/DR median can be used for outlier-resistant estimation of the ATE, but the outlier resistance of the median is limited and it is not resistant enough for heavy contamination. We propose extensions of the IPW/DR estimators with density power weighting, which can eliminate the influence of outliers almost completely. The outlier resistance of the proposed estimators is evaluated through the unbiasedness of the estimating equations. Unlike the median-based methods, our estimators are resistant to outliers even under heavy contamination. Interestingly, the naive extension of the DR estimator requires bias correction to keep the double robustness even under the most tractable form of contamination. In addition, the proposed estimators are found to be highly resistant to outliers in more difficult settings where the contamination ratio depends on the covariates. The outlier resistance of our estimators from the viewpoint of the influence function is also favorable. Our theoretical results are verified via Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. The proposed methods were found to have more outlier resistance than the median-based methods and estimated the potential mean with a smaller error than the median-based methods.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191