This paper considers the specification of covariance structures with tail estimates. We focus on two aspects: (i) the estimation of the VaR-CoVaR risk matrix in the case of larger number of time series observations than assets in a portfolio using quantile predictive regression models without assuming the presence of nonstationary regressors and; (ii) the construction of a novel variable selection algorithm, so-called, Feature Ordering by Centrality Exclusion (FOCE), which is based on an assumption-lean regression framework, has no tuning parameters and is proved to be consistent under general sparsity assumptions. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposed methodology with numerical studies of real and simulated datasets when modelling systemic risk in a network.
While standard speaker diarization attempts to answer the question "who spoken when", most of relevant applications in reality are more interested in determining "who spoken what". Whether it is the conventional modularized approach or the more recent end-to-end neural diarization (EEND), an additional automatic speech recognition (ASR) model and an orchestration algorithm are required to associate the speaker labels with recognized words. In this paper, we propose Word-level End-to-End Neural Diarization (WEEND) with auxiliary network, a multi-task learning algorithm that performs end-to-end ASR and speaker diarization in the same neural architecture. That is, while speech is being recognized, speaker labels are predicted simultaneously for each recognized word. Experimental results demonstrate that WEEND outperforms the turn-based diarization baseline system on all 2-speaker short-form scenarios and has the capability to generalize to audio lengths of 5 minutes. Although 3+speaker conversations are harder, we find that with enough in-domain training data, WEEND has the potential to deliver high quality diarized text.
Existing exploration algorithms mainly generate frontiers using random sampling or motion primitive methods within a specific sensor range or search space. However, frontiers generated within constrained spaces lead to back-and-forth maneuvers in large-scale environments, thereby diminishing exploration efficiency. To address this issue, we propose a method that utilizes a 3D dense map to generate Segmented Exploration Regions (SERs) and generate frontiers from a global-scale perspective. In particular, this paper presents a novel topological map generation approach that fully utilizes Line-of-Sight (LOS) features of LiDAR sensor points to enhance exploration efficiency inside large-scale subterranean environments. Our topological map contains the contributions of keyframes that generate each SER, enabling rapid exploration through a switch between local path planning and global path planning to each frontier. The proposed method achieved higher explored volume generation than the state-of-the-art algorithm in a large-scale simulation environment and demonstrated a 62% improvement in explored volume increment performance. For validation, we conducted field tests using UAVs in real subterranean environments, demonstrating the efficiency and speed of our method.
Powered ankle prostheses effectively assist people with lower limb amputation to perform daily activities. High performance prostheses with adjustable compliance and capability to predict and implement amputee's intent are crucial for them to be comparable to or better than a real limb. However, current designs fail to provide simple yet effective compliance of the joint with full potential of modification, and lack accurate gait prediction method in real time. This paper proposes an innovative design of powered ankle prosthesis with serial elastic actuator (SEA), and puts forward a MLP based gait recognition method that can accurately and continuously predict more gait parameters for motion sensing and control. The prosthesis mimics biological joint with similar weight, torque, and power which can assist walking of up to 4 m/s. A new design of planar torsional spring is proposed for the SEA, which has better stiffness, endurance, and potential of modification than current designs. The gait recognition system simultaneously generates locomotive speed, gait phase, ankle angle and angular velocity only utilizing signals of single IMU, holding advantage in continuity, adaptability for speed range, accuracy, and capability of multi-functions.
In the presence of right-censored data with covariates, the conditional Kaplan-Meier estimator (also known as the Beran estimator) consistently estimates the conditional survival function of the random follow-up for the event of interest. However, a necessary condition is the unambiguous knowledge of whether each individual is censored or not, which may be incomplete in practice. We therefore propose a study of the Beran estimator when the censoring indicators are generic random variables and discuss necessary conditions for the efficiency of the Beran estimator. From this, we provide a new estimator for the conditional survival function with missing not at random (MNAR) censoring indicators based on a conditional copula model for the missingness mechanism. In addition to the theoretical results, we illustrate how the estimators work for small samples through a simulation study and show their practical applicability by analyzing synthetic and real data.
With the rapid development of distributed energy resources, increasing number of residential and commercial users have been switched from pure electricity consumers to prosumers that can both consume and produce energy. To properly manage these emerging prosumers, a peer-to-peer electricity market has been explored and extensively studied. In such an electricity market, each prosumer trades energy directly with other prosumers, posing a serious challenge to the scalability of the market. Therefore, a bilateral energy trading mechanism with good scalability is proposed for electricity markets with numerous prosumers in this paper. First, the multi-bilateral economic dispatch problem that maximizes the social welfare is formulated, taking into account product differentiation and network constraints. Then, an energy trading mechanism is devised to improve the scalability from two aspects: (i) an accelerated distributed clearing algorithm with less exchanged information and faster convergence rate. (ii) a novel selection strategy to reduce the amount of computation and communication per prosumer. Finally, the convergence proof of the proposed accelerated algorithm is given, and the proposed selection strategy is illustrated through a Monte Carlo simulation experiment.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.
Translational distance-based knowledge graph embedding has shown progressive improvements on the link prediction task, from TransE to the latest state-of-the-art RotatE. However, N-1, 1-N and N-N predictions still remain challenging. In this work, we propose a novel translational distance-based approach for knowledge graph link prediction. The proposed method includes two-folds, first we extend the RotatE from 2D complex domain to high dimension space with orthogonal transforms to model relations for better modeling capacity. Second, the graph context is explicitly modeled via two directed context representations. These context representations are used as part of the distance scoring function to measure the plausibility of the triples during training and inference. The proposed approach effectively improves prediction accuracy on the difficult N-1, 1-N and N-N cases for knowledge graph link prediction task. The experimental results show that it achieves better performance on two benchmark data sets compared to the baseline RotatE, especially on data set (FB15k-237) with many high in-degree connection nodes.
Incompleteness is a common problem for existing knowledge graphs (KGs), and the completion of KG which aims to predict links between entities is challenging. Most existing KG completion methods only consider the direct relation between nodes and ignore the relation paths which contain useful information for link prediction. Recently, a few methods take relation paths into consideration but pay less attention to the order of relations in paths which is important for reasoning. In addition, these path-based models always ignore nonlinear contributions of path features for link prediction. To solve these problems, we propose a novel KG completion method named OPTransE. Instead of embedding both entities of a relation into the same latent space as in previous methods, we project the head entity and the tail entity of each relation into different spaces to guarantee the order of relations in the path. Meanwhile, we adopt a pooling strategy to extract nonlinear and complex features of different paths to further improve the performance of link prediction. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets show that the proposed model OPTransE performs better than state-of-the-art methods.
Visual Question Answering (VQA) models have struggled with counting objects in natural images so far. We identify a fundamental problem due to soft attention in these models as a cause. To circumvent this problem, we propose a neural network component that allows robust counting from object proposals. Experiments on a toy task show the effectiveness of this component and we obtain state-of-the-art accuracy on the number category of the VQA v2 dataset without negatively affecting other categories, even outperforming ensemble models with our single model. On a difficult balanced pair metric, the component gives a substantial improvement in counting over a strong baseline by 6.6%.
Recommender System (RS) is a hot area where artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can be effectively applied to improve performance. Since the well-known Netflix Challenge, collaborative filtering (CF) has become the most popular and effective recommendation method. Despite their success in CF, various AI techniques still have to face the data sparsity and cold start problems. Previous works tried to solve these two problems by utilizing auxiliary information, such as social connections among users and meta-data of items. However, they process different types of information separately, leading to information loss. In this work, we propose to utilize Heterogeneous Information Network (HIN), which is a natural and general representation of different types of data, to enhance CF-based recommending methods. HIN-based recommender systems face two problems: how to represent high-level semantics for recommendation and how to fuse the heterogeneous information to recommend. To address these problems, we propose to applying meta-graph to HIN-based RS and solve the information fusion problem with a "matrix factorization (MF) + factorization machine (FM)" framework. For the "MF" part, we obtain user-item similarity matrices from each meta-graph and adopt low-rank matrix approximation to get latent features for both users and items. For the "FM" part, we propose to apply FM with Group lasso (FMG) on the obtained features to simultaneously predict missing ratings and select useful meta-graphs. Experimental results on two large real-world datasets, i.e., Amazon and Yelp, show that our proposed approach is better than that of the state-of-the-art FM and other HIN-based recommending methods.