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Approximate Bayesian inference methods provide a powerful suite of tools for finding approximations to intractable posterior distributions. However, machine learning applications typically involve selecting actions, which -- in a Bayesian setting -- depend on the posterior distribution only via its contribution to expected utility. A growing body of work on loss-calibrated approximate inference methods has therefore sought to develop posterior approximations sensitive to the influence of the utility function. Here we introduce loss-calibrated expectation propagation (Loss-EP), a loss-calibrated variant of expectation propagation. This method resembles standard EP with an additional factor that "tilts" the posterior towards higher-utility decisions. We show applications to Gaussian process classification under binary utility functions with asymmetric penalties on False Negative and False Positive errors, and show how this asymmetry can have dramatic consequences on what information is "useful" to capture in an approximation.

Fairness aware data mining (FADM) aims to prevent algorithms from discriminating against protected groups. The literature has come to an impasse as to what constitutes explainable variability as opposed to discrimination. This distinction hinges on a rigorous understanding of the role of proxy variables; i.e., those variables which are associated both the protected feature and the outcome of interest. We demonstrate that fairness is achieved by ensuring impartiality with respect to sensitive characteristics and provide a framework for impartiality by accounting for different perspectives on the data generating process. In particular, fairness can only be precisely defined in a full-data scenario in which all covariates are observed. We then analyze how these models may be conservatively estimated via regression in partial-data settings. Decomposing the regression estimates provides insights into previously unexplored distinctions between explainable variability and discrimination that illuminate the use of proxy variables in fairness aware data mining.

As sustainability becomes an increasing priority throughout global society, academic and research institutions are assessed on their contribution to relevant research publications. This study compares four methods of identifying research publications related to United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 13: climate action. The four methods, Elsevier, STRINGS, SIRIS, and Dimensions have each developed search strings with the help of subject matter experts which are then enhanced through distinct methods to produce a final set of publications. Our analysis showed that the methods produced comparable quantities of publications but with little overlap making them difficult for policy makers to rely on. Some methods opted for very broad search terms that resulted in large numbers of papers, while others chose highly technical terms that were enhanced to produce publication datasets with a different focus. The findings will enable those assessing research into climate action to draw a link between the search strategy and the type of publications they are likely to find. Evaluators will be better equipped to select available search strategies or design new ones depending on their specific objective.

Continual learning in environments with shifting data distributions is a challenging problem with several real-world applications. In this paper we consider settings in which the data distribution(task) shifts abruptly and the timing of these shifts are not known. Furthermore, we consider a semi-supervised task-agnostic setting in which the learning algorithm has access to both task-segmented and unsegmented data for offline training. We propose a novel approach called mixture of Basismodels (MoB) for addressing this problem setting. The core idea is to learn a small set of basis models and to construct a dynamic, task-dependent mixture of the models to predict for the current task. We also propose a new methodology to detect observations that are out-of-distribution with respect to the existing basis models and to instantiate new models as needed. We test our approach in multiple domains and show that it attains better prediction error than existing methods in most cases while using fewer models than other multiple model approaches. Moreover, we analyze the latent task representations learned by MoB and show that similar tasks tend to cluster in the latent space and that the latent representation shifts at the task boundaries when tasks are dissimilar.

Osteoporosis is a common chronic metabolic bone disease that is often under-diagnosed and under-treated due to the limited access to bone mineral density (BMD) examinations, e.g. via Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA). In this paper, we propose a method to predict BMD from Chest X-ray (CXR), one of the most commonly accessible and low-cost medical imaging examinations. Our method first automatically detects Regions of Interest (ROIs) of local and global bone structures from the CXR. Then a multi-ROI deep model with transformer encoder is developed to exploit both local and global information in the chest X-ray image for accurate BMD estimation. Our method is evaluated on 13719 CXR patient cases with their ground truth BMD scores measured by gold-standard DXA. The model predicted BMD has a strong correlation with the ground truth (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.889 on lumbar 1). When applied for osteoporosis screening, it achieves a high classification performance (AUC 0.963 on lumbar 1). As the first effort in the field using CXR scans to predict the BMD, the proposed algorithm holds strong potential in early osteoporosis screening and public health promotion.

High-dimensional mean vector testing problem for two or more groups remain a very active research area. In these setting, traditional tests are not applicable because they involve the inversion of rank deficient group covariance matrix. In current approaches, this problem is addressed by simply looking at a test assuming a sparse or diagonal covariance matrix potentially ignoring complex dependency between features. In this paper, we develop a Bayes factor (BF) based testing procedure for comparing two or more population means in (very) high dimensional settings. Two versions of the Bayes factor based test statistics are considered which are based on a Random projection (RP) approach. RPs are appealing since they make not assumption about the form of the dependency across features in the data. The final test statistic is based on an ensemble of Bayes factors corresponding to multiple replications of randomly projected data. Both proposed test statistics are compared through a battery of simulation settings. Finally they are applied to the analysis of a publicly available genomic single cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) dataset.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine-learning-based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently-proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

Fine-grained entity typing is a challenging problem since it usually involves a relatively large tag set and may require to understand the context of the entity mention. In this paper, we use entity linking to help with the fine-grained entity type classification process. We propose a deep neural model that makes predictions based on both the context and the information obtained from entity linking results. Experimental results on two commonly used datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. On both datasets, it achieves more than 5\% absolute strict accuracy improvement over the state of the art.

Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.