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Additive Noise Models (ANM) encode a popular functional assumption that enables learning causal structure from observational data. Due to a lack of real-world data meeting the assumptions, synthetic ANM data are often used to evaluate causal discovery algorithms. Reisach et al. (2021) show that, for common simulation parameters, a variable ordering by increasing variance is closely aligned with a causal order and introduce var-sortability to quantify the alignment. Here, we show that not only variance, but also the fraction of a variable's variance explained by all others, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. Simple baseline algorithms can use $R^2$-sortability to match the performance of established methods. Since $R^2$-sortability is invariant under data rescaling, these algorithms perform equally well on standardized or rescaled data, addressing a key limitation of algorithms exploiting var-sortability. We characterize and empirically assess $R^2$-sortability for different simulation parameters. We show that all simulation parameters can affect $R^2$-sortability and must be chosen deliberately to control the difficulty of the causal discovery task and the real-world plausibility of the simulated data. We provide an implementation of the sortability measures and sortability-based algorithms in our library CausalDisco (//github.com/CausalDisco/CausalDisco).

The Age of Incorrect Information (AoII) is a recently proposed metric for real-time remote monitoring systems. In particular, AoII measures the time the information at the monitor is incorrect, weighted by the magnitude of this incorrectness, thereby combining the notions of freshness and distortion. This paper addresses the definition of an AoII-optimal transmission policy in a discrete-time communication scheme with a resource constraint and a hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) protocol. Considering an $N$-ary symmetric Markov source, the problem is formulated as an infinite-horizon average-cost constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). The source model is characterized by the cardinality of the state space and the probability of staying at the same state. Interestingly, it is proved that under some conditions, the optimal transmission policy is to never transmit. This reveals that there exists a region of the source dynamics where communication is inadequate in reducing the AoII. Elsewhere, there exists an optimal transmission policy, which is a randomized mixture of two discrete threshold-based policies that randomize at one state. The optimal threshold and the randomization component are derived analytically. Numerical results illustrate the impact of source dynamics, channel conditions, and the resource constraint on the average AoII.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Sound correspondence patterns form the basis of cognate detection and phonological reconstruction in historical language comparison. Methods for the automatic inference of correspondence patterns from phonetically aligned cognate sets have been proposed, but their application to multilingual wordlists requires extremely well annotated datasets. Since annotation is tedious and time consuming, it would be desirable to find ways to improve aligned cognate data automatically. Taking inspiration from trimming techniques in evolutionary biology, which improve alignments by excluding problematic sites, we propose a workflow that trims phonetic alignments in comparative linguistics prior to the inference of correspondence patterns. Testing these techniques on a large standardized collection of ten datasets with expert annotations from different language families, we find that the best trimming technique substantially improves the overall consistency of the alignments. The results show a clear increase in the proportion of frequent correspondence patterns and words exhibiting regular cognate relations.

Optimal transport (OT) theory describes general principles to define and select, among many possible choices, the most efficient way to map a probability measure onto another. That theory has been mostly used to estimate, given a pair of source and target probability measures $(\mu, \nu)$, a parameterized map $T_\theta$ that can efficiently map $\mu$ onto $\nu$. In many applications, such as predicting cell responses to treatments, pairs of input/output data measures $(\mu, \nu)$ that define optimal transport problems do not arise in isolation but are associated with a context $c$, as for instance a treatment when comparing populations of untreated and treated cells. To account for that context in OT estimation, we introduce CondOT, a multi-task approach to estimate a family of OT maps conditioned on a context variable, using several pairs of measures $\left(\mu_i, \nu_i\right)$ tagged with a context label $c_i$. CondOT learns a global map $\mathcal{T}_\theta$ conditioned on context that is not only expected to fit all labeled pairs in the dataset $\left\{\left(c_i,\left(\mu_i, \nu_i\right)\right)\right\}$, i.e., $\mathcal{T}_\theta\left(c_i\right) \sharp \mu_i \approx \nu_i$, but should also generalize to produce meaningful maps $\mathcal{T}_\theta\left(c_{\text {new }}\right)$ when conditioned on unseen contexts $c_{\text {new }}$. Our approach harnesses and provides a novel usage for partially input convex neural networks, for which we introduce a robust and efficient initialization strategy inspired by Gaussian approximations. We demonstrate the ability of CondOT to infer the effect of an arbitrary combination of genetic or therapeutic perturbations on single cells, using only observations of the effects of said perturbations separately.

Abstractive summarization is the process of generating a summary given a document as input. Although significant progress has been made, the factual inconsistency between the document and the generated summary still limits its practical applications. Previous work found that the probabilities assigned by the generation model reflect its preferences for the generated summary, including the preference for factual consistency, and the preference for the language or knowledge prior as well. To separate the preference for factual consistency, we propose an unsupervised framework named CoP by controlling the preference of the generation model with the help of prompt. More specifically, the framework performs an extra inference step in which a text prompt is introduced as an additional input. In this way, another preference is described by the generation probability of this extra inference process. The difference between the above two preferences, i.e. the difference between the probabilities, could be used as measurements for detecting factual inconsistencies. Interestingly, we found that with the properly designed prompt, our framework could evaluate specific preferences and serve as measurements for fine-grained categories of inconsistency, such as entity-related inconsistency, coreference-related inconsistency, etc. Moreover, our framework could also be extended to the supervised setting to learn better prompt from the labeled data as well. Experiments show that our framework achieves new SOTA results on three factual inconsistency detection tasks.

As various forms of fraud proliferate on Ethereum, it is imperative to safeguard against these malicious activities to protect susceptible users from being victimized. While current studies solely rely on graph-based fraud detection approaches, it is argued that they may not be well-suited for dealing with highly repetitive, skew-distributed and heterogeneous Ethereum transactions. To address these challenges, we propose BERT4ETH, a universal pre-trained Transformer encoder that serves as an account representation extractor for detecting various fraud behaviors on Ethereum. BERT4ETH features the superior modeling capability of Transformer to capture the dynamic sequential patterns inherent in Ethereum transactions, and addresses the challenges of pre-training a BERT model for Ethereum with three practical and effective strategies, namely repetitiveness reduction, skew alleviation and heterogeneity modeling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that BERT4ETH outperforms state-of-the-art methods with significant enhancements in terms of the phishing account detection and de-anonymization tasks. The code for BERT4ETH is available at: //github.com/git-disl/BERT4ETH.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success in computer vision tasks. Existing neural networks mainly operate in the spatial domain with fixed input sizes. For practical applications, images are usually large and have to be downsampled to the predetermined input size of neural networks. Even though the downsampling operations reduce computation and the required communication bandwidth, it removes both redundant and salient information obliviously, which results in accuracy degradation. Inspired by digital signal processing theories, we analyze the spectral bias from the frequency perspective and propose a learning-based frequency selection method to identify the trivial frequency components which can be removed without accuracy loss. The proposed method of learning in the frequency domain leverages identical structures of the well-known neural networks, such as ResNet-50, MobileNetV2, and Mask R-CNN, while accepting the frequency-domain information as the input. Experiment results show that learning in the frequency domain with static channel selection can achieve higher accuracy than the conventional spatial downsampling approach and meanwhile further reduce the input data size. Specifically for ImageNet classification with the same input size, the proposed method achieves 1.41% and 0.66% top-1 accuracy improvements on ResNet-50 and MobileNetV2, respectively. Even with half input size, the proposed method still improves the top-1 accuracy on ResNet-50 by 1%. In addition, we observe a 0.8% average precision improvement on Mask R-CNN for instance segmentation on the COCO dataset.