Climate issues have become more and more important now. Although global governments have made some progress, we are still facing the truth that the prospect of international cooperation is not clear at present. Due to the limitations of the Integrated assessment models (IAMs) model, it is difficult to simulate the dynamic negotiation process. Therefore, using deep learning to build a new agents based model (ABM) might can provide new theoretical support for climate negotiations. Building on the RICE-N model, this work proposed an approach to climate negotiations based on existing trade groups. Simulation results show that the scheme has a good prospect.
As large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have gained traction, an increasing number of news websites have begun utilizing them to generate articles. However, not only can these language models produce factually inaccurate articles on reputable websites but disreputable news sites can utilize LLMs to mass produce misinformation. To begin to understand this phenomenon, we present one of the first large-scale studies of the prevalence of synthetic articles within online news media. To do this, we train a DeBERTa-based synthetic news detector and classify over 15.90 million articles from 3,074~misinformation and mainstream news websites. We find that between January 1, 2022, and May 1, 2023, the relative number of synthetic news articles increased by 61.1% on mainstream websites while increasing by 426% on misinformation sites. We find that this increase is largely driven by smaller less popular websites. Analyzing the impact of the release of ChatGPT using an interrupted-time-series, we show that while its release resulted in a marked increase in synthetic articles on small sites as well as misinformation news websites, there was not a corresponding increase on large mainstream news websites.
Sparse linear regression methods for high-dimensional data often assume that residuals have constant variance. When this assumption is violated, it can lead to bias in estimated coefficients, prediction intervals with improper length, and increased type I errors. This paper proposes a heteroscedastic (H) high-dimensional linear regression model through a partitioned empirical Bayes Expectation Conditional Maximization (H-PROBE) algorithm. H-PROBE is a computationally efficient maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation approach based on a Parameter-Expanded Expectation-Conditional-Maximization (PX-ECM) algorithm. It requires minimal prior assumptions on the regression parameters through plug-in empirical Bayes estimates of hyperparameters. The variance model uses recent advances in multivariate log-Gamma distribution theory and can include covariates hypothesized to impact heterogeneity. The motivation of our approach is a study relating Aphasia Quotient (AQ) to high-resolution T2 neuroimages of brain damage in stroke patients. AQ is a vital measure of language impairment and informs treatment decisions, but it is challenging to measure and subject to heteroscedastic errors. As a result, it is of clinical importance -- and the goal of this paper -- to use high-dimensional neuroimages to predict and provide prediction intervals for AQ that accurately reflect the heterogeneity in the residual variance. Our analysis demonstrates that H-PROBE can use markers of heterogeneity to provide prediction interval widths that are narrower than standard methods without sacrificing coverage. Further, through extensive simulation studies, we exhibit that the proposed approach results in superior prediction, variable selection, and predictive inference than competing methods.
Large language models have astounded the world with fascinating new capabilities. However, they currently lack the ability to teach themselves new skills, relying instead on being trained on large amounts of human-generated data. We introduce SECToR (Self-Education via Chain-of-Thought Reasoning), a proof-of-concept demonstration that language models can successfully teach themselves new skills using chain-of-thought reasoning. Inspired by previous work in both reinforcement learning (Silver et al., 2017) and human cognition (Kahneman, 2011), SECToR first uses chain-of-thought reasoning to slowly think its way through problems. SECToR then fine-tunes the model to generate those same answers, this time without using chain-of-thought reasoning. Language models trained via SECToR autonomously learn to add up to 29-digit numbers without any access to any ground truth examples beyond an initial supervised fine-tuning phase consisting only of numbers with 6 or fewer digits. Our central hypothesis is that chain-of-thought reasoning can act as a policy improvement operator, analogously to how Monte-Carlo Tree Search is used in AlphaZero. We hope that this research can lead to new directions in which language models can learn to teach themselves without the need for human demonstrations.
We address the problem of efficient and unobstructed surveillance or communication in complex environments. On one hand, one wishes to use a minimal number of sensors to cover the environment. On the other hand, it is often important to consider solutions that are robust against sensor failure or adversarial attacks. This paper addresses these challenges of designing minimal sensor sets that achieve multi-coverage constraints -- every point in the environment is covered by a prescribed number of sensors. We propose a greedy algorithm to achieve the objective. Further, we explore deep learning techniques to accelerate the evaluation of the objective function formulated in the greedy algorithm. The training of the neural network reveals that the geometric properties of the data significantly impact the network's performance, particularly at the end stage. By taking into account these properties, we discuss the differences in using greedy and $\epsilon$-greedy algorithms to generate data and their impact on the robustness of the network.
In indoor scenes, reverberation is a crucial factor in degrading the perceived quality and intelligibility of speech. In this work, we propose a generative dereverberation method. Our approach is based on a probabilistic model utilizing a recurrent variational auto-encoder (RVAE) network and the convolutive transfer function (CTF) approximation. Different from most previous approaches, the output of our RVAE serves as the prior of the clean speech. And our target is the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of clean speech, which is achieved iteratively through the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The proposed method integrates the capabilities of network-based speech prior modelling and CTF-based observation modelling. Experiments on single-channel speech dereverberation show that the proposed generative method noticeably outperforms the advanced discriminative networks.
The rise of ideological divides in public discourse has received considerable attention in recent years. However, much of this research has been concentrated on Western democratic nations, leaving other regions largely unexplored. Here, we delve into the political landscape of Pakistan, a nation marked by intricate political dynamics and persistent turbulence. Spanning from 2018 to 2022, our analysis of Twitter data allows us to capture pivotal shifts and developments in Pakistan's political arena. By examining interactions and content generated by politicians affiliated with major political parties, we reveal a consistent and active presence of politicians on Twitter, with opposition parties exhibiting particularly robust engagement. We explore the alignment of party audiences, highlighting a notable convergence among opposition factions over time. Our analysis also uncovers significant shifts in political affiliations, including the transition of politicians to the opposition alliance. Quantitatively, we assess evolving interaction patterns, showcasing the prevalence of homophilic connections while identifying a growing interconnection among audiences of opposition parties. Our study, by accurately reflecting shifts in the political landscape, underscores the reliability of our methodology and social media data as a valuable tool for monitoring political polarization and providing a nuanced understanding of macro-level trends and individual-level transformations.
There has been an increasingly widespread agreement among both academic circles and the general public that the Social Media Platforms (SMPs) play a central role in the dissemination of harmful and negative sentiment content in a coordinated manner. A substantial body of recent scholarly research has demonstrated the ways in which hateful content, political propaganda, and targeted messaging on SMPs have contributed to serious real-world consequences. Adopting inspirations from graph theory, in this paper we apply novel network and community finding algorithms over a representative Facebook dataset (n=608,417) which we have scrapped through 630 pages. By applying Girvan-Newman algorithm over the historical dataset our analysis finds five communities of coordinated networks of actors, within the contexts of Indian far-right Hindutva discourse. This work further paves the path for future potentials of applying such novel network analysis algorithms to SMPs, in order to automatically identify toxic coordinated communities and sub-communities, and to possibly resist real-world threats emerging from information dissemination in the SMPs.
Global pandemic due to the spread of COVID-19 has post challenges in a new dimension on facial recognition, where people start to wear masks. Under such condition, the authors consider utilizing machine learning in image inpainting to tackle the problem, by complete the possible face that is originally covered in mask. In particular, autoencoder has great potential on retaining important, general features of the image as well as the generative power of the generative adversarial network (GAN). The authors implement a combination of the two models, context encoders and explain how it combines the power of the two models and train the model with 50,000 images of influencers faces and yields a solid result that still contains space for improvements. Furthermore, the authors discuss some shortcomings with the model, their possible improvements, as well as some area of study for future investigation for applicative perspective, as well as directions to further enhance and refine the model.
Defensive deception is a promising approach for cyberdefense. Although defensive deception is increasingly popular in the research community, there has not been a systematic investigation of its key components, the underlying principles, and its tradeoffs in various problem settings. This survey paper focuses on defensive deception research centered on game theory and machine learning, since these are prominent families of artificial intelligence approaches that are widely employed in defensive deception. This paper brings forth insights, lessons, and limitations from prior work. It closes with an outline of some research directions to tackle major gaps in current defensive deception research.
Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elements in texts and explicit and implicit social network structures. In this paper, we design an event meta-schema to characterize the semantic relatedness of social events and build an event-based heterogeneous information network (HIN) integrating information from external knowledge base, and propose a novel Pair-wise Popularity Graph Convolutional Network (PP-GCN) based fine-grained social event categorization model. We propose a Knowledgeable meta-paths Instances based social Event Similarity (KIES) between events and build a weighted adjacent matrix as input to the PP-GCN model. Comprehensive experiments on real data collections are conducted to compare various social event detection and clustering tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed framework outperforms other alternative social event categorization techniques.