This paper explores the Ziv-Zakai bound (ZZB), which is a well-known Bayesian lower bound on the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE). First, it is shown that the ZZB holds without any assumption on the distribution of the estimand, that is, the estimand does not necessarily need to have a probability density function. The ZZB is then further analyzed in the high-noise and low-noise regimes and shown to always tensorize. Finally, the tightness of the ZZB is investigated under several aspects, such as the number of hypotheses and the usefulness of the valley-filling function. In particular, a sufficient and necessary condition for the tightness of the bound with continuous inputs is provided, and it is shown that the bound is never tight for discrete input distributions with a support set that does not have an accumulation point at zero.
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A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under permutations. The original formulation of de Finetti's theorem says that any exchangeable sequence of $\{0,1\}$-valued random variables can be thought of as a mixture of independent and identically distributed sequences in a certain precise mathematical sense. Interpreting this statement from a convex analytic perspective, Hewitt and Savage obtained the same conclusion for more general state spaces under some topological conditions. The main contribution of this paper is in providing a new framework that explains the theorem purely as a consequence of the underlying distribution of the random variables, with no topological conditions (beyond Hausdorffness) on the state space being necessary if the distribution is Radon. We also show that it is consistent with the axioms of ZFC that de Finetti's theorem holds for all sequences of exchangeable random variables taking values in any complete metric space. The framework we use is based on nonstandard analysis. We have provided a self-contained introduction to nonstandard analysis as an appendix, thus rendering measure theoretic probability and point-set topology as the only prerequisites for this paper. Our introduction aims to develop some new ideologies that might be of interest to mathematicians, philosophers, and mathematics educators alike. Our technical tools come from nonstandard topological measure theory, in which a highlight is a new generalization of Prokhorov's theorem. Modulo such technical tools, our proof relies on properties of the empirical measures induced by hyperfinitely many identically distributed random variables -- a feature that allows us to establish de Finetti's theorem in the generality that we seek while still retaining the combinatorial intuition of proofs of simpler versions of de Finetti's theorem.
In recent years, online social networks have been the target of adversaries who seek to introduce discord into societies, to undermine democracies and to destabilize communities. Often the goal is not to favor a certain side of a conflict but to increase disagreement and polarization. To get a mathematical understanding of such attacks, researchers use opinion-formation models from sociology, such as the Friedkin--Johnsen model, and formally study how much discord the adversary can produce when altering the opinions for only a small set of users. In this line of work, it is commonly assumed that the adversary has full knowledge about the network topology and the opinions of all users. However, the latter assumption is often unrealistic in practice, where user opinions are not available or simply difficult to estimate accurately. To address this concern, we raise the following question: Can an attacker sow discord in a social network, even when only the network topology is known? We answer this question affirmatively. We present approximation algorithms for detecting a small set of users who are highly influential for the disagreement and polarization in the network. We show that when the adversary radicalizes these users and if the initial disagreement/polarization in the network is not very high, then our method gives a constant-factor approximation on the setting when the user opinions are known. To find the set of influential users, we provide a novel approximation algorithm for a variant of MaxCut in graphs with positive and negative edge weights. We experimentally evaluate our methods, which have access only to the network topology, and we find that they have similar performance as methods that have access to the network topology and all user opinions. We further present an NP-hardness proof, which was an open question by Chen and Racz [IEEE Trans. Netw. Sci. Eng., 2021].
We establish sparsity and summability results for coefficient sequences of Wiener-Hermite polynomial chaos expansions of countably-parametric solutions of linear elliptic and parabolic divergence-form partial differential equations with Gaussian random field inputs. The novel proof technique developed here is based on analytic continuation of parametric solutions into the complex domain. It differs from previous works that used bootstrap arguments and induction on the differentiation order of solution derivatives with respect to the parameters. The present holomorphy-based argument allows a unified, ``differentiation-free'' proof of sparsity (expressed in terms of $\ell^p$-summability or weighted $\ell^2$-summability) of sequences of Wiener-Hermite coefficients in polynomial chaos expansions in various scales of function spaces. The analysis also implies corresponding analyticity and sparsity results for posterior densities in Bayesian inverse problems subject to Gaussian priors on uncertain inputs from function spaces. Our results furthermore yield dimension-independent convergence rates of various \emph{constructive} high-dimensional deterministic numerical approximation schemes such as single-level and multi-level versions of Hermite-Smolyak anisotropic sparse-grid interpolation and quadrature in both forward and inverse computational uncertainty quantification.
Empirical evidence demonstrates that citations received by scholarly publications follow a pattern of preferential attachment, resulting in a power-law distribution. Such asymmetry has sparked significant debate regarding the use of citations for research evaluation. However, a consensus has yet to be established concerning the historical trends in citation concentration. Are citations becoming more concentrated in a small number of articles? Or have recent geopolitical and technical changes in science led to more decentralized distributions? This ongoing debate stems from a lack of technical clarity in measuring inequality. Given the variations in citation practices across disciplines and over time, it is crucial to account for multiple factors that can influence the findings. This article explores how reference-based and citation-based approaches, uncited articles, citation inflation, the expansion of bibliometric databases, disciplinary differences, and self-citations affect the evolution of citation concentration. Our results indicate a decreasing trend in citation concentration, primarily driven by a decline in uncited articles, which, in turn, can be attributed to the growing significance of Asia and Europe. On the whole, our findings clarify current debates on citation concentration and show that, contrary to a widely-held belief, citations are increasingly scattered.
Two arbitrary-order constraint-preserving schemes for the Yang--Mills equations on polyhedral meshes
Two numerical schemes are proposed and investigated for the Yang--Mills equations, which can be seen as a nonlinear generalisation of the Maxwell equations set on Lie algebra-valued functions, with similarities to certain formulations of General Relativity. Both schemes are built on the Discrete de Rham (DDR) method, and inherit from its main features: an arbitrary order of accuracy, and applicability to generic polyhedral meshes. They make use of the complex property of the DDR, together with a Lagrange-multiplier approach, to preserve, at the discrete level, a nonlinear constraint associated with the Yang--Mills equations. We also show that the schemes satisfy a discrete energy dissipation (the dissipation coming solely from the implicit time stepping). Issues around the practical implementations of the schemes are discussed; in particular, the assembly of the local contributions in a way that minimises the price we pay in dealing with nonlinear terms, in conjunction with the tensorisation coming from the Lie algebra. Numerical tests are provided using a manufactured solution, and show that both schemes display a convergence in $L^2$-norm of the potential and electrical fields in $\mathcal O(h^{k+1})$ (provided that the time step is of that order), where $k$ is the polynomial degree chosen for the DDR complex. We also numerically demonstrate the preservation of the constraint.
An algorithm for robust initial orbit determination (IOD) under perturbed orbital dynamics is presented. By leveraging map inversion techniques defined in the algebra of Taylor polynomials, this tool is capable of not only returning an highly accurate solution to the IOD problem, but also estimating a range of validity for the aforementioned solution in which the true orbit state should lie. Automatic domain splitting is then used on top of the IOD routines to ensure the local truncation error introduced by a polynomial representation of the state estimate remains below a predefined threshold to meet the specified requirements in accuracy. The algorithm is adapted to three types of ground based sensors, namely range radars, Doppler-only radars and optical telescopes by taking into account their different constraints in terms of available measurements and sensor noise. Its improved performance with respect to a Keplerian based IOD solution is finally demonstrated with large scale numerical simulations over a subset of tracked objects in low Earth orbit.
We consider the multiple testing of the general regression framework aiming at studying the relationship between a univariate response and a p-dimensional predictor. To test the hypothesis of the effect of each predictor, we construct an Angular Balanced Statistic (ABS) based on the estimator of the sliced inverse regression without assuming a model of the conditional distribution of the response. According to the developed limiting distribution results in this paper, we have shown that ABS is asymptotically symmetric with respect to zero under the null hypothesis. We then propose a Model-free multiple Testing procedure using Angular balanced statistics (MTA) and show theoretically that the false discovery rate of this method is less than or equal to a designated level asymptotically. Numerical evidence has shown that the MTA method is much more powerful than its alternatives, subject to the control of the false discovery rate.
This paper deals with the problem of finding the preferred extensions of an argumentation framework by means of a bijection with the naive sets of another framework. First, we consider the case where an argumentation framework is naive-bijective: its naive sets and preferred extensions are equal. Recognizing naive-bijective argumentation frameworks is hard, but we show that it is tractable for frameworks with bounded in-degree. Next, we give a bijection between the preferred extensions of an argumentation framework being admissible-closed (the intersection of two admissible sets is admissible) and the naive sets of another framework on the same set of arguments. On the other hand, we prove that identifying admissible-closed argumentation frameworks is coNP-complete. At last, we introduce the notion of irreducible self-defending sets as those that are not the union of others. It turns out there exists a bijection between the preferred extensions of an argumentation framework and the naive sets of a framework on its irreducible self-defending sets. Consequently, the preferred extensions of argumentation frameworks with some lattice properties can be listed with polynomial delay and polynomial space.
Classic algorithms and machine learning systems like neural networks are both abundant in everyday life. While classic computer science algorithms are suitable for precise execution of exactly defined tasks such as finding the shortest path in a large graph, neural networks allow learning from data to predict the most likely answer in more complex tasks such as image classification, which cannot be reduced to an exact algorithm. To get the best of both worlds, this thesis explores combining both concepts leading to more robust, better performing, more interpretable, more computationally efficient, and more data efficient architectures. The thesis formalizes the idea of algorithmic supervision, which allows a neural network to learn from or in conjunction with an algorithm. When integrating an algorithm into a neural architecture, it is important that the algorithm is differentiable such that the architecture can be trained end-to-end and gradients can be propagated back through the algorithm in a meaningful way. To make algorithms differentiable, this thesis proposes a general method for continuously relaxing algorithms by perturbing variables and approximating the expectation value in closed form, i.e., without sampling. In addition, this thesis proposes differentiable algorithms, such as differentiable sorting networks, differentiable renderers, and differentiable logic gate networks. Finally, this thesis presents alternative training strategies for learning with algorithms.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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