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We consider the problem of estimating the roughness of the volatility in a stochastic volatility model that arises as a nonlinear function of fractional Brownian motion with drift. To this end, we introduce a new estimator that measures the so-called roughness exponent of a continuous trajectory, based on discrete observations of its antiderivative. We provide conditions on the underlying trajectory under which our estimator converges in a strictly pathwise sense. Then we verify that these conditions are satisfied by almost every sample path of fractional Brownian motion (with drift). As a consequence, we obtain strong consistency theorems in the context of a large class of rough volatility models. Numerical simulations show that our estimation procedure performs well after passing to a scale-invariant modification of our estimator.

Personalized recommendations form an important part of today's internet ecosystem, helping artists and creators to reach interested users, and helping users to discover new and engaging content. However, many users today are skeptical of platforms that personalize recommendations, in part due to historically careless treatment of personal data and data privacy. Now, businesses that rely on personalized recommendations are entering a new paradigm, where many of their systems must be overhauled to be privacy-first. In this article, we propose an algorithm for personalized recommendations that facilitates both precise and differentially-private measurement. We consider advertising as an example application, and conduct offline experiments to quantify how the proposed privacy-preserving algorithm affects key metrics related to user experience, advertiser value, and platform revenue compared to the extremes of both (private) non-personalized and non-private, personalized implementations.

This article revisits the fundamental problem of parameter selection for Gaussian process interpolation. By choosing the mean and the covariance functions of a Gaussian process within parametric families, the user obtains a family of Bayesian procedures to perform predictions about the unknown function, and must choose a member of the family that will hopefully provide good predictive performances. We base our study on the general concept of scoring rules, which provides an effective framework for building leave-one-out selection and validation criteria, and a notion of extended likelihood criteria based on an idea proposed by Fasshauer and co-authors in 2009, which makes it possible to recover standard selection criteria such as, for instance, the generalized cross-validation criterion. Under this setting, we empirically show on several test problems of the literature that the choice of an appropriate family of models is often more important than the choice of a particular selection criterion (e.g., the likelihood versus a leave-one-out selection criterion). Moreover, our numerical results show that the regularity parameter of a Mat{\'e}rn covariance can be selected effectively by most selection criteria.

Estimating causal effects from observational network data is a significant but challenging problem. Existing works in causal inference for observational network data lack an analysis of the generalization bound, which can theoretically provide support for alleviating the complex confounding bias and practically guide the design of learning objectives in a principled manner. To fill this gap, we derive a generalization bound for causal effect estimation in network scenarios by exploiting 1) the reweighting schema based on joint propensity score and 2) the representation learning schema based on Integral Probability Metric (IPM). We provide two perspectives on the generalization bound in terms of reweighting and representation learning, respectively. Motivated by the analysis of the bound, we propose a weighting regression method based on the joint propensity score augmented with representation learning. Extensive experimental studies on two real-world networks with semi-synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.

Evaluation of researchers' output is vital for hiring committees and funding bodies, and it is usually measured via their scientific productivity, citations, or a combined metric such as h-index. Assessing young researchers is more critical because it takes a while to get citations and increment of h-index. Hence, predicting the h-index can help to discover the researchers' scientific impact. In addition, identifying the influential factors to predict the scientific impact is helpful for researchers seeking solutions to improve it. This study investigates the effect of author, paper and venue-specific features on the future h-index. For this purpose, we used machine learning methods to predict the h-index and feature analysis techniques to advance the understanding of feature impact. Utilizing the bibliometric data in Scopus, we defined and extracted two main groups of features. The first relates to prior scientific impact, and we name it 'prior impact-based features' and includes the number of publications, received citations, and h-index. The second group is 'non-impact-based features' and contains the features related to author, co-authorship, paper, and venue characteristics. We explored their importance in predicting h-index for researchers in three different career phases. Also, we examine the temporal dimension of predicting performance for different feature categories to find out which features are more reliable for long- and short-term prediction. We referred to the gender of the authors to examine the role of this author's characteristics in the prediction task. Our findings showed that gender has a very slight effect in predicting the h-index. We found that non-impact-based features are more robust predictors for younger scholars than seniors in the short term. Also, prior impact-based features lose their power to predict more than other features in the long-term.

The public release of ChatGPT has resulted in considerable publicity and has led to wide-spread discussion of the usefulness and capabilities of generative AI language models. Its ability to extract and summarise data from textual sources and present them as human-like contextual responses makes it an eminently suitable tool to answer questions users might ask. This paper tested what archaeological literature appears to have been included in ChatGPT's training phase. While ChatGPT offered seemingly pertinent references, a large percentage proved to be fictitious. Using cloze analysis to make inferences on the sources 'memorised' by a generative AI model, this paper was unable to prove that ChatGPT had access to the full texts of the genuine references. It can be shown that all references provided by ChatGPT that were found to be genuine have also been cited on Wikipedia pages. This strongly indicates that the source base for at least some of the data is found in those pages. The implications of this in relation to data quality are discussed.

This note presents a refined local approximation for the logarithm of the ratio between the negative multinomial probability mass function and a multivariate normal density, both having the same mean-covariance structure. This approximation, which is derived using Stirling's formula and a meticulous treatment of Taylor expansions, yields an upper bound on the Hellinger distance between the jittered negative multinomial distribution and the corresponding multivariate normal distribution. Upper bounds on the Le Cam distance between negative multinomial and multivariate normal experiments ensue.

Many mechanisms behind the evolution of cooperation, such as reciprocity, indirect reciprocity, and altruistic punishment, require group knowledge of individual actions. But what keeps people cooperating when no one is looking? Conformist norm internalization, the tendency to abide by the behavior of the majority of the group, even when it is individually harmful, could be the answer. In this paper, we analyze a world where (1) there is group selection and punishment by indirect reciprocity but (2) many actions (half) go unobserved, and therefore unpunished. Can norm internalization fill this `observation gap' and lead to high levels of cooperation, even when agents may in principle cooperate only when likely to be caught and punished? Specifically, we seek to understand whether adding norm internalization to the strategy space in a public goods game can lead to higher levels of cooperation when both norm internalization and cooperation start out rare. We found the answer to be positive, but, interestingly, not because norm internalizers end up making up a substantial fraction of the population, nor because they cooperate much more than other agent types. Instead, norm internalizers, by polarizing, catalyzing, and stabilizing cooperation, can increase levels of cooperation of other agent types, while only making up a minority of the population themselves.

Particle methods based on evolving the spatial derivatives of the solution were originally introduced to simulate reaction-diffusion processes, inspired by vortex methods for the Navier--Stokes equations. Such methods, referred to as gradient random walk methods, were extensively studied in the '90s and have several interesting features, such as being grid free, automatically adapting to the solution by concentrating elements where the gradient is large and significantly reducing the variance of the standard random walk approach. In this work, we revive these ideas by showing how to generalize the approach to a larger class of partial differential equations, including hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. To achieve this goal, we first extend the classical Monte Carlo method to relaxation approximation of systems of conservation laws, and subsequently consider a novel particle dynamics based on the spatial derivatives of the solution. The methodology, combined with asymptotic-preserving splitting discretization, yields a way to construct a new class of gradient-based Monte Carlo methods for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. Several results in one spatial dimension for scalar equations and systems of conservation laws show that the new methods are very promising and yield remarkable improvements compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches, either in terms of variance reduction as well as in describing the shock structure.

V. Levenshtein first proposed the sequence reconstruction problem in 2001. This problem studies the model where the same sequence from some set is transmitted over multiple channels, and the decoder receives the different outputs. Assume that the transmitted sequence is at distance $d$ from some code and there are at most $r$ errors in every channel. Then the sequence reconstruction problem is to find the minimum number of channels required to recover exactly the transmitted sequence that has to be greater than the maximum intersection between two metric balls of radius $r$, where the distance between their centers is at least $d$. In this paper, we study the sequence reconstruction problem of permutations under the Hamming distance. In this model we define a Cayley graph over the symmetric group, study its properties and find the exact value of the largest intersection of its two metric balls for $d=2r$. Moreover, we give a lower bound on the largest intersection of two metric balls for $d=2r-1$.