Auxiliary data sources have become increasingly important in epidemiological surveillance, as they are often available at a finer spatial and temporal resolution, larger coverage, and lower latency than traditional surveillance signals. We describe the problem of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in these signals derived from these data sources, where spatial and/or temporal biases are present. We present a method to use a ``guiding'' signal to correct for these biases and produce a more reliable signal that can be used for modeling and forecasting. The method assumes that the heterogeneity can be approximated by a low-rank matrix and that the temporal heterogeneity is smooth over time. We also present a hyperparameter selection algorithm to choose the parameters representing the matrix rank and degree of temporal smoothness of the corrections. In the absence of ground truth, we use maps and plots to argue that this method does indeed reduce heterogeneity. Reducing heterogeneity from auxiliary data sources greatly increases their utility in modeling and forecasting epidemics.
相關內容
A simple way of obtaining robust estimates of the "center" (or the "location") and of the "scatter" of a dataset is to use the maximum likelihood estimate with a class of heavy-tailed distributions, regardless of the "true" distribution generating the data. We observe that the maximum likelihood problem for the Cauchy distributions, which have particularly heavy tails, is geodesically convex and therefore efficiently solvable (Cauchy distributions are parametrized by the upper half plane, i.e. by the hyperbolic plane). Moreover, it has an appealing geometrical meaning: the datapoints, living on the boundary of the hyperbolic plane, are attracting the parameter by unit forces, and we search the point where these forces are in equilibrium. This picture generalizes to several classes of multivariate distributions with heavy tails, including, in particular, the multivariate Cauchy distributions. The hyperbolic plane gets replaced by symmetric spaces of noncompact type. Geodesic convexity gives us an efficient numerical solution of the maximum likelihood problem for these distribution classes. This can then be used for robust estimates of location and spread, thanks to the heavy tails of these distributions.
To form precipitation datasets that are accurate and, at the same time, have high spatial densities, data from satellites and gauges are often merged in the literature. However, uncertainty estimates for the data acquired in this manner are scarcely provided, although the importance of uncertainty quantification in predictive modelling is widely recognized. Furthermore, the benefits that machine learning can bring to the task of providing such estimates have not been broadly realized and properly explored through benchmark experiments. The present study aims at filling in this specific gap by conducting the first benchmark tests on the topic. On a large dataset that comprises 15-year-long monthly data spanning across the contiguous United States, we extensively compared six learners that are, by their construction, appropriate for predictive uncertainty quantification. These are the quantile regression (QR), quantile regression forests (QRF), generalized random forests (GRF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) and quantile regression neural networks (QRNN). The comparison referred to the competence of the learners in issuing predictive quantiles at nine levels that facilitate a good approximation of the entire predictive probability distribution, and was primarily based on the quantile and continuous ranked probability skill scores. Three types of predictor variables (i.e., satellite precipitation variables, distances between a point of interest and satellite grid points, and elevation at a point of interest) were used in the comparison and were additionally compared with each other. This additional comparison was based on the explainable machine learning concept of feature importance. The results suggest that the order from the best to the worst of the learners for the task investigated is the following: LightGBM, QRF, GRF, GBM, QRNN and QR...
The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for mixtures of elliptically-symmetric distributions for estimating its population version is shown, where the underlying distribution $P$ is nonparametric and does not necessarily belong to the class of mixtures on which the estimator is based. In a situation where $P$ is a mixture of well enough separated but nonparametric distributions it is shown that the components of the population version of the estimator correspond to the well separated components of $P$. This provides some theoretical justification for the use of such estimators for cluster analysis in case that $P$ has well separated subpopulations even if these subpopulations differ from what the mixture model assumes.
Nowadays, deep-learning image coding solutions have shown similar or better compression efficiency than conventional solutions based on hand-crafted transforms and spatial prediction techniques. These deep-learning codecs require a large training set of images and a training methodology to obtain a suitable model (set of parameters) for efficient compression. The training is performed with an optimization algorithm which provides a way to minimize the loss function. Therefore, the loss function plays a key role in the overall performance and includes a differentiable quality metric that attempts to mimic human perception. The main objective of this paper is to study the perceptual impact of several image quality metrics that can be used in the loss function of the training process, through a crowdsourcing subjective image quality assessment study. From this study, it is possible to conclude that the choice of the quality metric is critical for the perceptual performance of the deep-learning codec and that can vary depending on the image content.
A filtered multilevel Monte Carlo method for estimating the expectation of discretized random fields
We investigate the use of multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for estimating the expectation of discretized random fields. Specifically, we consider a setting in which the input and output vectors of the numerical simulators have inconsistent dimensions across the multilevel hierarchy. This requires the introduction of grid transfer operators borrowed from multigrid methods. Starting from a simple 1D illustration, we demonstrate numerically that the resulting MLMC estimator deteriorates the estimation of high-frequency components of the discretized expectation field compared to a Monte Carlo (MC) estimator. By adapting mathematical tools initially developed for multigrid methods, we perform a theoretical spectral analysis of the MLMC estimator of the expectation of discretized random fields, in the specific case of linear, symmetric and circulant simulators. This analysis provides a spectral decomposition of the variance into contributions associated with each scale component of the discretized field. We then propose improved MLMC estimators using a filtering mechanism similar to the smoothing process of multigrid methods. The filtering operators improve the estimation of both the small- and large-scale components of the variance, resulting in a reduction of the total variance of the estimator. These improvements are quantified for the specific class of simulators considered in our spectral analysis. The resulting filtered MLMC (F-MLMC) estimator is applied to the problem of estimating the discretized variance field of a diffusion-based covariance operator, which amounts to estimating the expectation of a discretized random field. The numerical experiments support the conclusions of the theoretical analysis even with non-linear simulators, and demonstrate the improvements brought by the proposed F-MLMC estimator compared to both a crude MC and an unfiltered MLMC estimator.
It is well known that artificial neural networks initialized from independent and identically distributed priors converge to Gaussian processes in the limit of large number of neurons per hidden layer. In this work we prove an analogous result for Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs). Namely, we show that the outputs of certain models based on Haar random unitary or orthogonal deep QNNs converge to Gaussian processes in the limit of large Hilbert space dimension $d$. The derivation of this result is more nuanced than in the classical case due to the role played by the input states, the measurement observable, and the fact that the entries of unitary matrices are not independent. An important consequence of our analysis is that the ensuing Gaussian processes cannot be used to efficiently predict the outputs of the QNN via Bayesian statistics. Furthermore, our theorems imply that the concentration of measure phenomenon in Haar random QNNs is worse than previously thought, as we prove that expectation values and gradients concentrate as $\mathcal{O}\left(\frac{1}{e^d \sqrt{d}}\right)$. Finally, we discuss how our results improve our understanding of concentration in $t$-designs.
This study explores the intersection of information technology-based self-monitoring (ITSM) and emotional responses in chronic care. It critiques the lack of theoretical depth in current ITSM research and proposes a dynamic emotion process theory to understand ITSM's impact on users' emotions. Utilizing computational grounded theory and machine learning analysis of hypertension app reviews, the research seeks to extend emotion theory by examining ITSM stimuli and their influence on emotional episodes, moving beyond discrete emotion models towards a continuous, nuanced understanding of emotional responses.
The goal of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is to generate human-interpretable explanations, but there are no computationally precise theories of how humans interpret AI generated explanations. The lack of theory means that validation of XAI must be done empirically, on a case-by-case basis, which prevents systematic theory-building in XAI. We propose a psychological theory of how humans draw conclusions from saliency maps, the most common form of XAI explanation, which for the first time allows for precise prediction of explainee inference conditioned on explanation. Our theory posits that absent explanation humans expect the AI to make similar decisions to themselves, and that they interpret an explanation by comparison to the explanations they themselves would give. Comparison is formalized via Shepard's universal law of generalization in a similarity space, a classic theory from cognitive science. A pre-registered user study on AI image classifications with saliency map explanations demonstrate that our theory quantitatively matches participants' predictions of the AI.
We hypothesize that due to the greedy nature of learning in multi-modal deep neural networks, these models tend to rely on just one modality while under-fitting the other modalities. Such behavior is counter-intuitive and hurts the models' generalization, as we observe empirically. To estimate the model's dependence on each modality, we compute the gain on the accuracy when the model has access to it in addition to another modality. We refer to this gain as the conditional utilization rate. In the experiments, we consistently observe an imbalance in conditional utilization rates between modalities, across multiple tasks and architectures. Since conditional utilization rate cannot be computed efficiently during training, we introduce a proxy for it based on the pace at which the model learns from each modality, which we refer to as the conditional learning speed. We propose an algorithm to balance the conditional learning speeds between modalities during training and demonstrate that it indeed addresses the issue of greedy learning. The proposed algorithm improves the model's generalization on three datasets: Colored MNIST, Princeton ModelNet40, and NVIDIA Dynamic Hand Gesture.
Hashing has been widely used in approximate nearest search for large-scale database retrieval for its computation and storage efficiency. Deep hashing, which devises convolutional neural network architecture to exploit and extract the semantic information or feature of images, has received increasing attention recently. In this survey, several deep supervised hashing methods for image retrieval are evaluated and I conclude three main different directions for deep supervised hashing methods. Several comments are made at the end. Moreover, to break through the bottleneck of the existing hashing methods, I propose a Shadow Recurrent Hashing(SRH) method as a try. Specifically, I devise a CNN architecture to extract the semantic features of images and design a loss function to encourage similar images projected close. To this end, I propose a concept: shadow of the CNN output. During optimization process, the CNN output and its shadow are guiding each other so as to achieve the optimal solution as much as possible. Several experiments on dataset CIFAR-10 show the satisfying performance of SRH.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191