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It is well established that migratory birds in general have advanced their arrival times in spring, and in this paper we investigate potential ways of enhancing the level of detail in future phenological analyses. We perform single as well as multiple species analyses, using linear models on empirical quantiles, non-parametric quantile regression and likelihood-based parametric quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributed error terms. We conclude that non-parametric quantile regression appears most suited for single as well as multiple species analyses.

A class of models that have been widely used are the exponential random graph (ERG) models, which form a comprehensive family of models that include independent and dyadic edge models, Markov random graphs, and many other graph distributions, in addition to allow the inclusion of covariates that can lead to a better fit of the model. Another increasingly popular class of models in statistical network analysis are stochastic block models (SBMs). They can be used for the purpose of grouping nodes into communities or discovering and analyzing a latent structure of a network. The stochastic block model is a generative model for random graphs that tends to produce graphs containing subsets of nodes characterized by being connected to each other, called communities. Many researchers from various areas have been using computational tools to adjust these models without, however, analyzing their suitability for the data of the networks they are studying. The complexity involved in the estimation process and in the goodness-of-fit verification methodologies for these models can be factors that make the analysis of adequacy difficult and a possible discard of one model in favor of another. And it is clear that the results obtained through an inappropriate model can lead the researcher to very wrong conclusions about the phenomenon studied. The purpose of this work is to present a simple methodology, based on Hypothesis Tests, to verify if there is a model specification error for these two cases widely used in the literature to represent complex networks: the ERGM and the SBM. We believe that this tool can be very useful for those who want to use these models in a more careful way, verifying beforehand if the models are suitable for the data under study.

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new class of regression models for bounded continuous data, commonly encountered in applied research. The models, named the power logit regression models, assume that the response variable follows a distribution in a wide, flexible class of distributions with three parameters, namely the median, a dispersion parameter and a skewness parameter. The paper offers a comprehensive set of tools for likelihood inference and diagnostic analysis, and introduces the new R package PLreg. Applications with real and simulated data show the merits of the proposed models, the statistical tools, and the computational package.

A general Bayesian framework is introduced for mixture modelling and inference with real-valued time series. At the top level, the state space is partitioned via the choice of a discrete context tree, so that the resulting partition depends on the values of some of the most recent samples. At the bottom level, a different model is associated with each region of the partition. This defines a very rich and flexible class of mixture models, for which we provide algorithms that allow for efficient, exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we show that the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) model (including the relevant MAP context tree partition) can be precisely identified, along with its exact posterior probability. The utility of this general framework is illustrated in detail when a different autoregressive (AR) model is used in each state-space region, resulting in a mixture-of-AR model class. The performance of the associated algorithmic tools is demonstrated in the problems of model selection and forecasting on both simulated and real-world data, where they are found to provide results as good or better than state-of-the-art methods.

Surrogate gradient (SG) training provides the possibility to quickly transfer all the gains made in deep learning to neuromorphic computing and neuromorphic processors, with the consequent reduction in energy consumption. Evidence supports that training can be robust to the choice of SG shape, after an extensive search of hyper-parameters. However, random or grid search of hyper-parameters becomes exponentially unfeasible as we consider more hyper-parameters. Moreover, every point in the search can itself be highly time and energy consuming for large networks and large datasets. In this article we show how complex tasks and networks are more sensitive to SG choice. Secondly, we show how low dampening, high sharpness and low tail fatness are preferred. Thirdly, we observe that Glorot Uniform initialization is generally preferred by most SG choices, with variability in the results. We finally provide a theoretical solution to reduce the need of extensive gridsearch, to find SG shape and initializations that result in improved accuracy.

Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.

Similarity/Distance measures play a key role in many machine learning, pattern recognition, and data mining algorithms, which leads to the emergence of metric learning field. Many metric learning algorithms learn a global distance function from data that satisfy the constraints of the problem. However, in many real-world datasets that the discrimination power of features varies in the different regions of input space, a global metric is often unable to capture the complexity of the task. To address this challenge, local metric learning methods are proposed that learn multiple metrics across the different regions of input space. Some advantages of these methods are high flexibility and the ability to learn a nonlinear mapping but typically achieves at the expense of higher time requirement and overfitting problem. To overcome these challenges, this research presents an online multiple metric learning framework. Each metric in the proposed framework is composed of a global and a local component learned simultaneously. Adding a global component to a local metric efficiently reduce the problem of overfitting. The proposed framework is also scalable with both sample size and the dimension of input data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first local online similarity/distance learning framework based on PA (Passive/Aggressive). In addition, for scalability with the dimension of input data, DRP (Dual Random Projection) is extended for local online learning in the present work. It enables our methods to be run efficiently on high-dimensional datasets, while maintains their predictive performance. The proposed framework provides a straightforward local extension to any global online similarity/distance learning algorithm based on PA.

Recurrent models for sequences have been recently successful at many tasks, especially for language modeling and machine translation. Nevertheless, it remains challenging to extract good representations from these models. For instance, even though language has a clear hierarchical structure going from characters through words to sentences, it is not apparent in current language models. We propose to improve the representation in sequence models by augmenting current approaches with an autoencoder that is forced to compress the sequence through an intermediate discrete latent space. In order to propagate gradients though this discrete representation we introduce an improved semantic hashing technique. We show that this technique performs well on a newly proposed quantitative efficiency measure. We also analyze latent codes produced by the model showing how they correspond to words and phrases. Finally, we present an application of the autoencoder-augmented model to generating diverse translations.

In this paper, we develop the continuous time dynamic topic model (cDTM). The cDTM is a dynamic topic model that uses Brownian motion to model the latent topics through a sequential collection of documents, where a "topic" is a pattern of word use that we expect to evolve over the course of the collection. We derive an efficient variational approximate inference algorithm that takes advantage of the sparsity of observations in text, a property that lets us easily handle many time points. In contrast to the cDTM, the original discrete-time dynamic topic model (dDTM) requires that time be discretized. Moreover, the complexity of variational inference for the dDTM grows quickly as time granularity increases, a drawback which limits fine-grained discretization. We demonstrate the cDTM on two news corpora, reporting both predictive perplexity and the novel task of time stamp prediction.