Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. Recent studies have shown promising results using machine learning (ML) models to advance subseasonal forecasting (SSF), but several open questions remain. First, several past approaches use the average of an ensemble of physics-based forecasts as an input feature of these models. However, ensemble forecasts contain information that can aid prediction beyond only the ensemble mean. Second, past methods have focused on average performance, whereas forecasts of extreme events are far more important for planning and mitigation purposes. Third, climate forecasts correspond to a spatially-varying collection of forecasts, and different methods account for spatial variability in the response differently. Trade-offs between different approaches may be mitigated with model stacking. This paper describes the application of a variety of ML methods used to predict monthly average precipitation and two meter temperature using physics-based predictions (ensemble forecasts) and observational data such as relative humidity, pressure at sea level, or geopotential height, two weeks in advance for the whole continental United States. Regression, quantile regression, and tercile classification tasks using linear models, random forests, convolutional neural networks, and stacked models are considered. The proposed models outperform common baselines such as historical averages (or quantiles) and ensemble averages (or quantiles). This paper further includes an investigation of feature importance, trade-offs between using the full ensemble or only the ensemble average, and different modes of accounting for spatial variability.
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Peer prediction incentive mechanisms for crowdsourcing are generally limited to eliciting samples from categorical distributions. Prior work on extending peer prediction to arbitrary distributions has largely relied on assumptions on the structures of the distributions or known properties of the data providers. We introduce a novel class of incentive mechanisms that extend peer prediction mechanisms to arbitrary distributions by replacing the notion of an exact match with a concept of neighborhood matching. We present conditions on the belief updates of the data providers that guarantee incentive-compatibility for rational data providers, and admit a broad class of possible reasonable updates.
Multi-agent and multi-robot systems (MRS) often rely on direct communication for information sharing. This work explores an alternative approach inspired by eavesdropping mechanisms in nature that involves casual observation of agent interactions to enhance decentralized knowledge dissemination. We achieve this through a novel IKT-BT framework tailored for a behavior-based MRS, encapsulating knowledge and control actions in Behavior Trees (BT). We present two new BT-based modalities - eavesdrop-update (EU) and eavesdrop-buffer-update (EBU) - incorporating unique eavesdropping strategies and efficient episodic memory management suited for resource-limited swarm robots. We theoretically analyze the IKT-BT framework for an MRS and validate the performance of the proposed modalities through extensive experiments simulating a search and rescue mission. Our results reveal improvements in both global mission performance outcomes and agent-level knowledge dissemination with a reduced need for direct communication.
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a vital task in industrial recommendation systems. Most existing methods focus on the network architecture design of the CTR model for better accuracy and suffer from the data sparsity problem. Especially in industrial recommendation systems, the widely applied negative sample down-sampling technique due to resource limitation worsens the problem, resulting in a decline in performance. In this paper, we propose \textbf{A}uxiliary Match \textbf{T}asks for enhancing \textbf{C}lick-\textbf{T}hrough \textbf{R}ate prediction accuracy (AT4CTR) by alleviating the data sparsity problem. Specifically, we design two match tasks inspired by collaborative filtering to enhance the relevance modeling between user and item. As the "click" action is a strong signal which indicates the user's preference towards the item directly, we make the first match task aim at pulling closer the representation between the user and the item regarding the positive samples. Since the user's past click behaviors can also be treated as the user him/herself, we apply the next item prediction as the second match task. For both the match tasks, we choose the InfoNCE as their loss function. The two match tasks can provide meaningful training signals to speed up the model's convergence and alleviate the data sparsity. We conduct extensive experiments on one public dataset and one large-scale industrial recommendation dataset. The result demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed auxiliary match tasks. AT4CTR has been deployed in the real industrial advertising system and has gained remarkable revenue.
Despite the impressive results of arbitrary image-guided style transfer methods, text-driven image stylization has recently been proposed for transferring a natural image into a stylized one according to textual descriptions of the target style provided by the user. Unlike the previous image-to-image transfer approaches, text-guided stylization progress provides users with a more precise and intuitive way to express the desired style. However, the huge discrepancy between cross-modal inputs/outputs makes it challenging to conduct text-driven image stylization in a typical feed-forward CNN pipeline. In this paper, we present DiffStyler, a dual diffusion processing architecture to control the balance between the content and style of the diffused results. The cross-modal style information can be easily integrated as guidance during the diffusion process step-by-step. Furthermore, we propose a content image-based learnable noise on which the reverse denoising process is based, enabling the stylization results to better preserve the structure information of the content image. We validate the proposed DiffStyler beyond the baseline methods through extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments. Code is available at \url{//github.com/haha-lisa/Diffstyler}.
Safety is the primary priority of autonomous driving. Nevertheless, no published dataset currently supports the direct and explainable safety evaluation for autonomous driving. In this work, we propose DeepAccident, a large-scale dataset generated via a realistic simulator containing diverse accident scenarios that frequently occur in real-world driving. The proposed DeepAccident dataset includes 57K annotated frames and 285K annotated samples, approximately 7 times more than the large-scale nuScenes dataset with 40k annotated samples. In addition, we propose a new task, end-to-end motion and accident prediction, which can be used to directly evaluate the accident prediction ability for different autonomous driving algorithms. Furthermore, for each scenario, we set four vehicles along with one infrastructure to record data, thus providing diverse viewpoints for accident scenarios and enabling V2X (vehicle-to-everything) research on perception and prediction tasks. Finally, we present a baseline V2X model named V2XFormer that demonstrates superior performance for motion and accident prediction and 3D object detection compared to the single-vehicle model.
The utilization of multi-modal sensor data in visual place recognition (VPR) has demonstrated enhanced performance compared to single-modal counterparts. Nonetheless, integrating additional sensors comes with elevated costs and may not be feasible for systems that demand lightweight operation, thereby impacting the practical deployment of VPR. To address this issue, we resort to knowledge distillation, which empowers single-modal students to learn from cross-modal teachers without introducing additional sensors during inference. Despite the notable advancements achieved by current distillation approaches, the exploration of feature relationships remains an under-explored area. In order to tackle the challenge of cross-modal distillation in VPR, we present DistilVPR, a novel distillation pipeline for VPR. We propose leveraging feature relationships from multiple agents, including self-agents and cross-agents for teacher and student neural networks. Furthermore, we integrate various manifolds, characterized by different space curvatures for exploring feature relationships. This approach enhances the diversity of feature relationships, including Euclidean, spherical, and hyperbolic relationship modules, thereby enhancing the overall representational capacity. The experiments demonstrate that our proposed pipeline achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to other distillation baselines. We also conduct necessary ablation studies to show design effectiveness. The code is released at: //github.com/sijieaaa/DistilVPR
Efficiently capturing the complex spatiotemporal representations from large-scale unlabeled traffic data remains to be a challenging task. In considering of the dilemma, this work employs the advanced contrastive learning and proposes a novel Spatial-Temporal Synchronous Contextual Contrastive Learning (STS-CCL) model. First, we elaborate the basic and strong augmentation methods for spatiotemporal graph data, which not only perturb the data in terms of graph structure and temporal characteristics, but also employ a learning-based dynamic graph view generator for adaptive augmentation. Second, we introduce a Spatial-Temporal Synchronous Contrastive Module (STS-CM) to simultaneously capture the decent spatial-temporal dependencies and realize graph-level contrasting. To further discriminate node individuals in negative filtering, a Semantic Contextual Contrastive method is designed based on semantic features and spatial heterogeneity, achieving node-level contrastive learning along with negative filtering. Finally, we present a hard mutual-view contrastive training scheme and extend the classic contrastive loss to an integrated objective function, yielding better performance. Extensive experiments and evaluations demonstrate that building a predictor upon STS-CCL contrastive learning model gains superior performance than existing traffic forecasting benchmarks. The proposed STS-CCL is highly suitable for large datasets with only a few labeled data and other spatiotemporal tasks with data scarcity issue.
The blessing of ubiquitous data also comes with a curse: the communication, storage, and labeling of massive, mostly redundant datasets. We seek to solve this problem at its core, collecting only valuable data and throwing out the rest via submodular maximization. Specifically, we develop algorithms for the online and distributed version of the problem, where data selection occurs in an uncoordinated fashion across multiple data streams. We design a general and flexible core selection routine for our algorithms which, given any stream of data, any assessment of its value, and any formulation of its selection cost, extracts the most valuable subset of the stream up to a constant factor while using minimal memory. Notably, our methods have the same theoretical guarantees as their offline counterparts, and, as far as we know, provide the first guarantees for online distributed submodular optimization in the literature. Finally, in learning tasks on ImageNet and MNIST, we show that our selection methods outperform random selection by $5-20\%$.
As a primary means of information acquisition, information retrieval (IR) systems, such as search engines, have integrated themselves into our daily lives. These systems also serve as components of dialogue, question-answering, and recommender systems. The trajectory of IR has evolved dynamically from its origins in term-based methods to its integration with advanced neural models. While the neural models excel at capturing complex contextual signals and semantic nuances, thereby reshaping the IR landscape, they still face challenges such as data scarcity, interpretability, and the generation of contextually plausible yet potentially inaccurate responses. This evolution requires a combination of both traditional methods (such as term-based sparse retrieval methods with rapid response) and modern neural architectures (such as language models with powerful language understanding capacity). Meanwhile, the emergence of large language models (LLMs), typified by ChatGPT and GPT-4, has revolutionized natural language processing due to their remarkable language understanding, generation, generalization, and reasoning abilities. Consequently, recent research has sought to leverage LLMs to improve IR systems. Given the rapid evolution of this research trajectory, it is necessary to consolidate existing methodologies and provide nuanced insights through a comprehensive overview. In this survey, we delve into the confluence of LLMs and IR systems, including crucial aspects such as query rewriters, retrievers, rerankers, and readers. Additionally, we explore promising directions within this expanding field.
Collaborative filtering often suffers from sparsity and cold start problems in real recommendation scenarios, therefore, researchers and engineers usually use side information to address the issues and improve the performance of recommender systems. In this paper, we consider knowledge graphs as the source of side information. We propose MKR, a Multi-task feature learning approach for Knowledge graph enhanced Recommendation. MKR is a deep end-to-end framework that utilizes knowledge graph embedding task to assist recommendation task. The two tasks are associated by cross&compress units, which automatically share latent features and learn high-order interactions between items in recommender systems and entities in the knowledge graph. We prove that cross&compress units have sufficient capability of polynomial approximation, and show that MKR is a generalized framework over several representative methods of recommender systems and multi-task learning. Through extensive experiments on real-world datasets, we demonstrate that MKR achieves substantial gains in movie, book, music, and news recommendation, over state-of-the-art baselines. MKR is also shown to be able to maintain a decent performance even if user-item interactions are sparse.
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