Statistical analysis based on quantile regression methods is more comprehensive, flexible, and less sensitive to outliers when compared to mean regression methods. When the link between different diseases are of interest, joint disease mapping is useful for measuring directional correlation between them. Most studies study this link through multiple correlated mean regressions. In this paper we propose a joint quantile regression framework for multiple diseases where different quantile levels can be considered. We are motivated by the theorized link between the presence of Malaria and the gene deficiency G6PD, where medical scientist have anecdotally discovered a possible link between high levels of G6PD and lower than expected levels of Malaria initially pointing towards the occurrence of G6PD inhibiting the occurrence of Malaria. This link cannot be investigated with mean regressions and thus the need for flexible joint quantile regression in a disease mapping framework. Our joint quantile disease mapping model can be used for linear and non-linear effects of covariates by stochastic splines, since we define it as a latent Gaussian model. We perform Bayesian inference of this model using the INLA framework embedded in the R software package INLA. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of model by analyzing the malaria and G6PD deficiency incidences in 21 African countries using linked quantiles of different levels.
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We study a new two-time-scale stochastic gradient method for solving optimization problems, where the gradients are computed with the aid of an auxiliary variable under samples generated by time-varying Markov random processes parameterized by the underlying optimization variable. These time-varying samples make gradient directions in our update biased and dependent, which can potentially lead to the divergence of the iterates. In our two-time-scale approach, one scale is to estimate the true gradient from these samples, which is then used to update the estimate of the optimal solution. While these two iterates are implemented simultaneously, the former is updated "faster" (using bigger step sizes) than the latter (using smaller step sizes). Our first contribution is to characterize the finite-time complexity of the proposed two-time-scale stochastic gradient method. In particular, we provide explicit formulas for the convergence rates of this method under different structural assumptions, namely, strong convexity, convexity, the Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition, and general non-convexity. We apply our framework to two problems in control and reinforcement learning. First, we look at the standard online actor-critic algorithm over finite state and action spaces and derive a convergence rate of O(k^(-2/5)), which recovers the best known rate derived specifically for this problem. Second, we study an online actor-critic algorithm for the linear-quadratic regulator and show that a convergence rate of O(k^(-2/3)) is achieved. This is the first time such a result is known in the literature. Finally, we support our theoretical analysis with numerical simulations where the convergence rates are visualized.
Rumor detection has become an emerging and active research field in recent years. At the core is to model the rumor characteristics inherent in rich information, such as propagation patterns in social network and semantic patterns in post content, and differentiate them from the truth. However, existing works on rumor detection fall short in modeling heterogeneous information, either using one single information source only (e.g. social network, or post content) or ignoring the relations among multiple sources (e.g. fusing social and content features via simple concatenation). Therefore, they possibly have drawbacks in comprehensively understanding the rumors, and detecting them accurately. In this work, we explore contrastive self-supervised learning on heterogeneous information sources, so as to reveal their relations and characterize rumors better. Technically, we supplement the main supervised task of detection with an auxiliary self-supervised task, which enriches post representations via post self-discrimination. Specifically, given two heterogeneous views of a post (i.e. representations encoding social patterns and semantic patterns), the discrimination is done by maximizing the mutual information between different views of the same post compared to that of other posts. We devise cluster-wise and instance-wise approaches to generate the views and conduct the discrimination, considering different relations of information sources. We term this framework as Self-supervised Rumor Detection (SRD). Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of SRD for automatic rumor detection on social media.
We study online convex optimization with switching costs, a practically important but also extremely challenging problem due to the lack of complete offline information. By tapping into the power of machine learning (ML) based optimizers, ML-augmented online algorithms (also referred to as expert calibration in this paper) have been emerging as state of the art, with provable worst-case performance guarantees. Nonetheless, by using the standard practice of training an ML model as a standalone optimizer and plugging it into an ML-augmented algorithm, the average cost performance can be even worse than purely using ML predictions. In order to address the "how to learn" challenge, we propose EC-L2O (expert-calibrated learning to optimize), which trains an ML-based optimizer by explicitly taking into account the downstream expert calibrator. To accomplish this, we propose a new differentiable expert calibrator that generalizes regularized online balanced descent and offers a provably better competitive ratio than pure ML predictions when the prediction error is large. For training, our loss function is a weighted sum of two different losses -- one minimizing the average ML prediction error for better robustness, and the other one minimizing the post-calibration average cost. We also provide theoretical analysis for EC-L2O, highlighting that expert calibration can be even beneficial for the average cost performance and that the high-percentile tail ratio of the cost achieved by EC-L2O to that of the offline optimal oracle (i.e., tail cost ratio) can be bounded. Finally, we test EC-L2O by running simulations for sustainable datacenter demand response. Our results demonstrate that EC-L2O can empirically achieve a lower average cost as well as a lower competitive ratio than the existing baseline algorithms.
We study efficient estimation of an interventional mean associated with a point exposure treatment under a causal graphical model represented by a directed acyclic graph without hidden variables. Under such a model, it may happen that a subset of the variables are uninformative in that failure to measure them neither precludes identification of the interventional mean nor changes the semiparametric variance bound for regular estimators of it. We develop a set of graphical criteria that are sound and complete for eliminating all the uninformative variables so that the cost of measuring them can be saved without sacrificing estimation efficiency, which could be useful when designing a planned observational or randomized study. Further, we construct a reduced directed acyclic graph on the set of informative variables only. We show that the interventional mean is identified from the marginal law by the g-formula (Robins, 1986) associated with the reduced graph, and the semiparametric variance bounds for estimating the interventional mean under the original and the reduced graphical model agree. This g-formula is an irreducible, efficient identifying formula in the sense that the nonparametric estimator of the formula, under regularity conditions, is asymptotically efficient under the original causal graphical model, and no formula with such property exists that only depends on a strict subset of the variables.
Recently, numerous studies have demonstrated the presence of bias in machine learning powered decision-making systems. Although most definitions of algorithmic bias have solid mathematical foundations, the corresponding bias detection techniques often lack statistical rigor, especially for non-iid data. We fill this gap in the literature by presenting a rigorous non-parametric testing procedure for bias according to Predictive Rate Parity, a commonly considered notion of algorithmic bias. We adapt traditional asymptotic results for non-parametric estimators to test for bias in the presence of dependence commonly seen in user-level data generated by technology industry applications and illustrate how these approaches can be leveraged for mitigation. We further propose modifications of this methodology to address bias measured through marginal outcome disparities in classification settings and extend notions of predictive rate parity to multi-objective models. Experimental results on real data show the efficacy of the proposed detection and mitigation methods.
The problem of active mapping aims to plan an informative sequence of sensing views given a limited budget such as distance traveled. This paper consider active occupancy grid mapping using a range sensor, such as LiDAR or depth camera. State-of-the-art methods optimize information-theoretic measures relating the occupancy grid probabilities with the range sensor measurements. The non-smooth nature of ray-tracing within a grid representation makes the objective function non-differentiable, forcing existing methods to search over a discrete space of candidate trajectories. This work proposes a differentiable approximation of the Shannon mutual information between a grid map and ray-based observations that enables gradient ascent optimization in the continuous space of SE(3) sensor poses. Our gradient-based formulation leads to more informative sensing trajectories, while avoiding occlusions and collisions. The proposed method is demonstrated in simulated and real-world experiments in 2-D and 3-D environments.
We present a pipelined multiplier with reduced activities and minimized interconnect based on online digit-serial arithmetic. The working precision has been truncated such that $p<n$ bits are used to compute $n$ bits product, resulting in significant savings in area and power. The digit slices follow variable precision according to input, increasing upto $p$ and then decreases according to the error profile. Pipelining has been done to achieve high throughput and low latency which is desirable for compute intensive inner products. Synthesis results of the proposed designs have been presented and compared with the non-pipelined online multiplier, pipelined online multiplier with full working precision and conventional serial-parallel and array multipliers. For $8, 16, 24$ and $32$ bit precision, the proposed low power pipelined design show upto $38\%$ and $44\%$ reduction in power and area respectively compared to the pipelined online multiplier without working precision truncation.
Deep Learning has implemented a wide range of applications and has become increasingly popular in recent years. The goal of multimodal deep learning is to create models that can process and link information using various modalities. Despite the extensive development made for unimodal learning, it still cannot cover all the aspects of human learning. Multimodal learning helps to understand and analyze better when various senses are engaged in the processing of information. This paper focuses on multiple types of modalities, i.e., image, video, text, audio, body gestures, facial expressions, and physiological signals. Detailed analysis of past and current baseline approaches and an in-depth study of recent advancements in multimodal deep learning applications has been provided. A fine-grained taxonomy of various multimodal deep learning applications is proposed, elaborating on different applications in more depth. Architectures and datasets used in these applications are also discussed, along with their evaluation metrics. Last, main issues are highlighted separately for each domain along with their possible future research directions.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Image segmentation is considered to be one of the critical tasks in hyperspectral remote sensing image processing. Recently, convolutional neural network (CNN) has established itself as a powerful model in segmentation and classification by demonstrating excellent performances. The use of a graphical model such as a conditional random field (CRF) contributes further in capturing contextual information and thus improving the segmentation performance. In this paper, we propose a method to segment hyperspectral images by considering both spectral and spatial information via a combined framework consisting of CNN and CRF. We use multiple spectral cubes to learn deep features using CNN, and then formulate deep CRF with CNN-based unary and pairwise potential functions to effectively extract the semantic correlations between patches consisting of three-dimensional data cubes. Effective piecewise training is applied in order to avoid the computationally expensive iterative CRF inference. Furthermore, we introduce a deep deconvolution network that improves the segmentation masks. We also introduce a new dataset and experimented our proposed method on it along with several widely adopted benchmark datasets to evaluate the effectiveness of our method. By comparing our results with those from several state-of-the-art models, we show the promising potential of our method.
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