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In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so that additional assumptions are often imposed to model or limit the underlying social mechanism. For binary outcomes, we propose an approach that does not require such assumptions, allowing for interference that is both unmodeled and strong, with confidence intervals derived using only the randomization of treatment. However, the estimates will have wider confidence intervals and weaker causal implications than those attainable under stronger assumptions. The approach allows for the usage of regression, matching, or weighting, as may best fit the application at hand. Inference is done by bounding the distribution of the estimation error over all possible values of the unknown counterfactual, using an integer program. Examples are shown using using a vaccination trial and two experiments investigating social influence.

Practical data assimilation algorithms often contain hyper-parameters, which may arise due to, for instance, the use of certain auxiliary techniques like covariance inflation and localization in an ensemble Kalman filter, the re-parameterization of certain quantities such as model and/or observation error covariance matrices, and so on. Given the richness of the established assimilation algorithms, and the abundance of the approaches through which hyper-parameters are introduced to the assimilation algorithms, one may ask whether it is possible to develop a sound and generic method to efficiently choose various types of (sometimes high-dimensional) hyper-parameters. This work aims to explore a feasible, although likely partial, answer to this question. Our main idea is built upon the notion that a data assimilation algorithm with hyper-parameters can be considered as a parametric mapping that links a set of quantities of interest (e.g., model state variables and/or parameters) to a corresponding set of predicted observations in the observation space. As such, the choice of hyper-parameters can be recast as a parameter estimation problem, in which our objective is to tune the hyper-parameters in such a way that the resulted predicted observations can match the real observations to a good extent. From this perspective, we propose a hyper-parameter estimation workflow and investigate the performance of this workflow in an ensemble Kalman filter. In a series of experiments, we observe that the proposed workflow works efficiently even in the presence of a relatively large amount (up to $10^3$) of hyper-parameters, and exhibits reasonably good and consistent performance under various conditions.

Estimation of a conditional mean (linking a set of features to an outcome of interest) is a fundamental statistical task. While there is an appeal to flexible nonparametric procedures, effective estimation in many classical nonparametric function spaces (e.g., multivariate Sobolev spaces) can be prohibitively difficult -- both statistically and computationally -- especially when the number of features is large. In this paper, we present (penalized) sieve estimators for regression in nonparametric tensor product spaces: These spaces are more amenable to multivariate regression, and allow us to, in-part, avoid the curse of dimensionality. Our estimators can be easily applied to multivariate nonparametric problems and have appealing statistical and computational properties. Moreover, they can effectively leverage additional structures such as feature sparsity. In this manuscript, we give theoretical guarantees, indicating that the predictive performance of our estimators scale favorably in dimension. In addition, we also present numerical examples to compare the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators with several popular machine learning methods.

The power system state estimation (SE) algorithm estimates the complex bus voltages based on the available set of measurements. Because phasor measurement units (PMUs) are becoming more widely employed in transmission power systems, a fast SE solver capable of exploiting PMUs' high sample rates is required. To accomplish this, we present a method for training a model based on graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn estimates from PMU voltage and current measurements, which, once it is trained, has a linear computational complexity with respect to the number of nodes in the power system. We propose an original GNN implementation over the power system's factor graph to simplify the incorporation of various types and numbers of measurements both on power system buses and branches. Furthermore, we augment the factor graph to improve the robustness of GNN predictions. Training and test examples were generated by randomly sampling sets of power system measurements and annotated with the exact solutions of linear SE with PMUs. The numerical results demonstrate that the GNN model provides an accurate approximation of the SE solutions. Additionally, errors caused by PMU malfunctions or the communication failures that make the SE problem unobservable have a local effect and do not deteriorate the results in the rest of the power system.

We consider 1-dimensional location estimation, where we estimate a parameter $\lambda$ from $n$ samples $\lambda + \eta_i$, with each $\eta_i$ drawn i.i.d. from a known distribution $f$. For fixed $f$ the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) is well-known to be optimal in the limit as $n \to \infty$: it is asymptotically normal with variance matching the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound of $\frac{1}{n\mathcal{I}}$, where $\mathcal{I}$ is the Fisher information of $f$. However, this bound does not hold for finite $n$, or when $f$ varies with $n$. We show for arbitrary $f$ and $n$ that one can recover a similar theory based on the Fisher information of a smoothed version of $f$, where the smoothing radius decays with $n$.

Mechanical assemblies can exhibit complex relative motions, during which collisions between moving parts and their surroundings must be avoided. To define feasible design spaces for each part's shape, "maximal" collision-free pointsets can be computed using configuration space modeling techniques such as Minkowski operations and sweep/unsweep. For example, for a pair of parts undergoing a given relative motion, to make the problem well-posed, the geometry of one part (chosen arbitrarily) must be fixed to compute the maximal shape of the other part by an unsweep operation. Making such arbitrary choices in a multi-component assembly can place unnecessary restrictions on the design space. A broader family of collision-free pairs of parts can be explored, if fixing the geometry of a component is not required. In this paper, we formalize this family of collision-free shapes and introduce a generic method for generating a broad subset of them. Our procedure, which is an extension of the unsweep, allows for co-generation of a pair of geometries which are modified incrementally and simultaneously to avoid collision. We demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our procedure in both 2D and 3D by generating a variety of collision-free shapes. Notably, we show that our approach can automatically generate freeform cam and follower profiles, gear teeth, and screw threads, starting from colliding blocks of materials, solely from a specification of relative motion and without the use of any feature-informed heuristics. Moreover, our approach provides continuous measures of collision that can be incorporated into standard gradient-descent design optimization, allowing for simultaneous collision-free and physics-informed co-design of mechanical parts for assembly.

Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate stochastic processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence or the partial coherence, encode comprehensively the complex linear relations between the component processes of the multivariate system. In this paper, we develop inference procedures for such parameters in a high-dimensional, time series setup. In particular, we first focus on the derivation of consistent estimators of the coherence and, more importantly, of the partial coherence which possess manageable limiting distributions that are suitable for testing purposes. Statistical tests of the hypothesis that the maximum over frequencies of the coherence, respectively, of the partial coherence, do not exceed a prespecified threshold value are developed. Our approach allows for testing hypotheses for individual coherences and/or partial coherences as well as for multiple testing of large sets of such parameters. In the latter case, a consistent procedure to control the false discovery rate is developed. The finite sample performance of the inference procedures proposed is investigated by means of simulations and applications to the construction of graphical interaction models for brain connectivity based on EEG data are presented.

Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and regularization functions to allow for scalable estimation of average and individual-level dose-response curves from high-dimensional, large-sample data. Such methodologies assume ignorability (observation of all confounding variables) and positivity (observation of all treatment levels for every covariate value describing a set of units), assumptions problematic in the continuous treatment regime. Scalable sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to understand the ignorance induced in causal estimates when these assumptions are relaxed are less studied. Here, we develop a continuous treatment-effect marginal sensitivity model (CMSM) and derive bounds that agree with the observed data and a researcher-defined level of hidden confounding. We introduce a scalable algorithm and uncertainty-aware deep models to derive and estimate these bounds for high-dimensional, large-sample observational data. We work in concert with climate scientists interested in the climatological impacts of human emissions on cloud properties using satellite observations from the past 15 years. This problem is known to be complicated by many unobserved confounders.

Randomized smoothing is the dominant standard for provable defenses against adversarial examples. Nevertheless, this method has recently been proven to suffer from important information theoretic limitations. In this paper, we argue that these limitations are not intrinsic, but merely a byproduct of current certification methods. We first show that these certificates use too little information about the classifier, and are in particular blind to the local curvature of the decision boundary. This leads to severely sub-optimal robustness guarantees as the dimension of the problem increases. We then show that it is theoretically possible to bypass this issue by collecting more information about the classifier. More precisely, we show that it is possible to approximate the optimal certificate with arbitrary precision, by probing the decision boundary with several noise distributions. Since this process is executed at certification time rather than at test time, it entails no loss in natural accuracy while enhancing the quality of the certificates. This result fosters further research on classifier-specific certification and demonstrates that randomized smoothing is still worth investigating. Although classifier-specific certification may induce more computational cost, we also provide some theoretical insight on how to mitigate it.

Graph convolutional network (GCN) has been successfully applied to many graph-based applications; however, training a large-scale GCN remains challenging. Current SGD-based algorithms suffer from either a high computational cost that exponentially grows with number of GCN layers, or a large space requirement for keeping the entire graph and the embedding of each node in memory. In this paper, we propose Cluster-GCN, a novel GCN algorithm that is suitable for SGD-based training by exploiting the graph clustering structure. Cluster-GCN works as the following: at each step, it samples a block of nodes that associate with a dense subgraph identified by a graph clustering algorithm, and restricts the neighborhood search within this subgraph. This simple but effective strategy leads to significantly improved memory and computational efficiency while being able to achieve comparable test accuracy with previous algorithms. To test the scalability of our algorithm, we create a new Amazon2M data with 2 million nodes and 61 million edges which is more than 5 times larger than the previous largest publicly available dataset (Reddit). For training a 3-layer GCN on this data, Cluster-GCN is faster than the previous state-of-the-art VR-GCN (1523 seconds vs 1961 seconds) and using much less memory (2.2GB vs 11.2GB). Furthermore, for training 4 layer GCN on this data, our algorithm can finish in around 36 minutes while all the existing GCN training algorithms fail to train due to the out-of-memory issue. Furthermore, Cluster-GCN allows us to train much deeper GCN without much time and memory overhead, which leads to improved prediction accuracy---using a 5-layer Cluster-GCN, we achieve state-of-the-art test F1 score 99.36 on the PPI dataset, while the previous best result was 98.71 by [16]. Our codes are publicly available at //github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/cluster_gcn.