Although there is substantial literature on identifying structural changes for continuous spatio-temporal processes, the same is not true for categorical spatio-temporal data. This work bridges that gap and proposes a novel spatio-temporal model to identify changepoints in ordered categorical data. The model leverages an additive mean structure with separable Gaussian space-time processes for the latent variable. Our proposed methodology can detect significant changes in the mean structure as well as in the spatio-temporal covariance structures. We implement the model through a Bayesian framework that gives a computational edge over conventional approaches. From an application perspective, our approach's capability to handle ordinal categorical data provides an added advantage in real applications. This is illustrated using county-wise COVID-19 data (converted to categories according to CDC guidelines) from the state of New York in the USA. Our model identifies three changepoints in the transmission levels of COVID-19, which are indeed aligned with the ``waves'' due to specific variants encountered during the pandemic. The findings also provide interesting insights into the effects of vaccination and the extent of spatial and temporal dependence in different phases of the pandemic.
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In the present work, advanced spatial and temporal discretization techniques are tailored to hyperelastic physics-augmented neural networks, i.e., neural network based constitutive models which fulfill all relevant mechanical conditions of hyperelasticity by construction. The framework takes into account the structure of neural network-based constitutive models, in particular, that their derivatives are more complex compared to analytical models. The proposed framework allows for convenient mixed Hu-Washizu like finite element formulations applicable to nearly incompressible material behavior. The key feature of this work is a tailored energy-momentum scheme for time discretization, which allows for energy and momentum preserving dynamical simulations. Both the mixed formulation and the energy-momentum discretization are applied in finite element analysis. For this, a hyperelastic physics-augmented neural network model is calibrated to data generated with an analytical potential. In all finite element simulations, the proposed discretization techniques show excellent performance. All of this demonstrates that, from a formal point of view, neural networks are essentially mathematical functions. As such, they can be applied in numerical methods as straightforwardly as analytical constitutive models. Nevertheless, their special structure suggests to tailor advanced discretization methods, to arrive at compact mathematical formulations and convenient implementations.
Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been studied in a static setting. In healthcare, data come in the form of complex, irregularly sampled time-series, with dynamic interdependencies between a treatment, outcomes, and mediators across time. Existing approaches to dynamic causal mediation analysis are limited to regular measurement intervals, simple parametric models, and disregard long-range mediator--outcome interactions. To address these limitations, we propose a non-parametric mediator--outcome model where the mediator is assumed to be a temporal point process that interacts with the outcome process. With this model, we estimate the direct and indirect effects of an external intervention on the outcome, showing how each of these affects the whole future trajectory. We demonstrate on semi-synthetic data that our method can accurately estimate direct and indirect effects. On real-world healthcare data, our model infers clinically meaningful direct and indirect effect trajectories for blood glucose after a surgery.
Computing an AUC as a performance measure to compare the quality of different machine learning models is one of the final steps of many research projects. Many of these methods are trained on privacy-sensitive data and there are several different approaches like $\epsilon$-differential privacy, federated machine learning and cryptography if the datasets cannot be shared or used jointly at one place for training and/or testing. In this setting, it can also be a problem to compute the global AUC, since the labels might also contain privacy-sensitive information. There have been approaches based on $\epsilon$-differential privacy to address this problem, but to the best of our knowledge, no exact privacy preserving solution has been introduced. In this paper, we propose an MPC-based solution, called ppAURORA, with private merging of individually sorted lists from multiple sources to compute the exact AUC as one could obtain on the pooled original test samples. With ppAURORA, the computation of the exact area under precision-recall and receiver operating characteristic curves is possible even when ties between prediction confidence values exist. We use ppAURORA to evaluate two different models predicting acute myeloid leukemia therapy response and heart disease, respectively. We also assess its scalability via synthetic data experiments. All these experiments show that we efficiently and privately compute the exact same AUC with both evaluation metrics as one can obtain on the pooled test samples in plaintext according to the semi-honest adversary setting.
This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.
In this paper, we use the optimization formulation of nonlinear Kalman filtering and smoothing problems to develop second-order variants of iterated Kalman smoother (IKS) methods. We show that Newton's method corresponds to a recursion over affine smoothing problems on a modified state-space model augmented by a pseudo measurement. The first and second derivatives required in this approach can be efficiently computed with widely available automatic differentiation tools. Furthermore, we show how to incorporate line-search and trust-region strategies into the proposed second-order IKS algorithm in order to regularize updates between iterations. Finally, we provide numerical examples to demonstrate the method's efficiency in terms of runtime compared to its batch counterpart.
We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.
Data in Knowledge Graphs often represents part of the current state of the real world. Thus, to stay up-to-date the graph data needs to be updated frequently. To utilize information from Knowledge Graphs, many state-of-the-art machine learning approaches use embedding techniques. These techniques typically compute an embedding, i.e., vector representations of the nodes as input for the main machine learning algorithm. If a graph update occurs later on -- specifically when nodes are added or removed -- the training has to be done all over again. This is undesirable, because of the time it takes and also because downstream models which were trained with these embeddings have to be retrained if they change significantly. In this paper, we investigate embedding updates that do not require full retraining and evaluate them in combination with various embedding models on real dynamic Knowledge Graphs covering multiple use cases. We study approaches that place newly appearing nodes optimally according to local information, but notice that this does not work well. However, we find that if we continue the training of the old embedding, interleaved with epochs during which we only optimize for the added and removed parts, we obtain good results in terms of typical metrics used in link prediction. This performance is obtained much faster than with a complete retraining and hence makes it possible to maintain embeddings for dynamic Knowledge Graphs.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Temporal relational modeling in video is essential for human action understanding, such as action recognition and action segmentation. Although Graph Convolution Networks (GCNs) have shown promising advantages in relation reasoning on many tasks, it is still a challenge to apply graph convolution networks on long video sequences effectively. The main reason is that large number of nodes (i.e., video frames) makes GCNs hard to capture and model temporal relations in videos. To tackle this problem, in this paper, we introduce an effective GCN module, Dilated Temporal Graph Reasoning Module (DTGRM), designed to model temporal relations and dependencies between video frames at various time spans. In particular, we capture and model temporal relations via constructing multi-level dilated temporal graphs where the nodes represent frames from different moments in video. Moreover, to enhance temporal reasoning ability of the proposed model, an auxiliary self-supervised task is proposed to encourage the dilated temporal graph reasoning module to find and correct wrong temporal relations in videos. Our DTGRM model outperforms state-of-the-art action segmentation models on three challenging datasets: 50Salads, Georgia Tech Egocentric Activities (GTEA), and the Breakfast dataset. The code is available at //github.com/redwang/DTGRM.
Over the past few years, we have seen fundamental breakthroughs in core problems in machine learning, largely driven by advances in deep neural networks. At the same time, the amount of data collected in a wide array of scientific domains is dramatically increasing in both size and complexity. Taken together, this suggests many exciting opportunities for deep learning applications in scientific settings. But a significant challenge to this is simply knowing where to start. The sheer breadth and diversity of different deep learning techniques makes it difficult to determine what scientific problems might be most amenable to these methods, or which specific combination of methods might offer the most promising first approach. In this survey, we focus on addressing this central issue, providing an overview of many widely used deep learning models, spanning visual, sequential and graph structured data, associated tasks and different training methods, along with techniques to use deep learning with less data and better interpret these complex models --- two central considerations for many scientific use cases. We also include overviews of the full design process, implementation tips, and links to a plethora of tutorials, research summaries and open-sourced deep learning pipelines and pretrained models, developed by the community. We hope that this survey will help accelerate the use of deep learning across different scientific domains.
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