Quantifying tail dependence is an important issue in insurance and risk management. The prevalent tail dependence coefficient (TDC), however, is known to underestimate the degree of tail dependence and it does not capture non-exchangeable tail dependence since it evaluates the limiting tail probability only along the main diagonal. To overcome these issues, two novel tail dependence measures called the maximal tail concordance measure (MTCM) and the average tail concordance measure (ATCM) are proposed. Both measures are constructed based on tail copulas and possess clear probabilistic interpretations in that the MTCM evaluates the largest limiting probability among all comparable rectangles in the tail, and the ATCM is a normalized average of these limiting probabilities. In contrast to the TDC, the proposed measures can capture non-exchangeable tail dependence. Analytical forms of the proposed measures are also derived for various copulas. A real data analysis reveals striking tail dependence and tail non-exchangeability of the return series of stock indices, particularly in periods of financial distress.
相關內容
The Age of Incorrect Information (AoII) is a recently proposed metric for real-time remote monitoring systems. In particular, AoII measures the time the information at the monitor is incorrect, weighted by the magnitude of this incorrectness, thereby combining the notions of freshness and distortion. This paper addresses the definition of an AoII-optimal transmission policy in a discrete-time communication scheme with a resource constraint and a hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) protocol. Considering an $N$-ary symmetric Markov source, the problem is formulated as an infinite-horizon average-cost constrained Markov decision process (CMDP). The source model is characterized by the cardinality of the state space and the probability of staying at the same state. Interestingly, it is proved that under some conditions, the optimal transmission policy is to never transmit. This reveals that there exists a region of the source dynamics where communication is inadequate in reducing the AoII. Elsewhere, there exists an optimal transmission policy, which is a randomized mixture of two discrete threshold-based policies that randomize at one state. The optimal threshold and the randomization component are derived analytically. Numerical results illustrate the impact of source dynamics, channel conditions, and the resource constraint on the average AoII.
We suggest correlation coefficients together with rank - and moment based estimators which are simple to compute, have tractable asymptotic distributions, equal the maximum correlation for a class of bivariate Lancester distributions and in particular for the bivariate normal equal the absolute value of the Pearson correlation, while being only slightly smaller than maximum correlation for a variety of bivariate distributions. In a simulation the power of asymptotic as well as permutation tests for independence based on our correlation measures compares favorably to various competitors, including distance correlation and rank coefficients for functional dependence. Confidence intervals based on the asymptotic distributions and the covariance bootstrap show good finite-sample coverage.
In this work, the authors develop regression approaches based on deep learning to perform thread density estimation for plain weave canvas analysis. Previous approaches were based on Fourier analysis, which is quite robust for some scenarios but fails in some others, in machine learning tools, that involve pre-labeling of the painting at hand, or the segmentation of thread crossing points, that provides good estimations in all scenarios with no need of pre-labeling. The segmentation approach is time-consuming as the estimation of the densities is performed after locating the crossing points. In this novel proposal, we avoid this step by computing the density of threads directly from the image with a regression deep learning model. We also incorporate some improvements in the initial preprocessing of the input image with an impact on the final error. Several models are proposed and analyzed to retain the best one. Furthermore, we further reduce the density estimation error by introducing a semi-supervised approach. The performance of our novel algorithm is analyzed with works by Ribera, Vel\'azquez, and Poussin where we compare our results to the ones of previous approaches. Finally, the method is put into practice to support the change of authorship or a masterpiece at the Museo del Prado.
Granular geographic data present new opportunities to understand how neighborhoods are formed, and how they influence politics. At the same time, the inherent subjectivity of neighborhoods creates methodological challenges in measuring and modeling them. We develop a survey instrument that allows respondents to draw their neighborhoods on a map. We also propose a statistical model to analyze how the characteristics of respondents and local areas determine subjective neighborhoods. We conduct two surveys: collecting subjective neighborhoods from voters in Miami, New York City, and Phoenix, and asking New York City residents to draw a community of interest for inclusion in their city council district. Our analysis shows that, holding other factors constant, White respondents include census blocks with more White residents in their neighborhoods. Similarly, Democrats and Republicans are more likely to include co-partisan areas. In addition, our model provides more accurate out-of-sample predictions than standard neighborhood measures.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
Trust has emerged as a key factor in people's interactions with AI-infused systems. Yet, little is known about what models of trust have been used and for what systems: robots, virtual characters, smart vehicles, decision aids, or others. Moreover, there is yet no known standard approach to measuring trust in AI. This scoping review maps out the state of affairs on trust in human-AI interaction (HAII) from the perspectives of models, measures, and methods. Findings suggest that trust is an important and multi-faceted topic of study within HAII contexts. However, most work is under-theorized and under-reported, generally not using established trust models and missing details about methods, especially Wizard of Oz. We offer several targets for systematic review work as well as a research agenda for combining the strengths and addressing the weaknesses of the current literature.
The core of information retrieval (IR) is to identify relevant information from large-scale resources and return it as a ranked list to respond to user's information need. Recently, the resurgence of deep learning has greatly advanced this field and leads to a hot topic named NeuIR (i.e., neural information retrieval), especially the paradigm of pre-training methods (PTMs). Owing to sophisticated pre-training objectives and huge model size, pre-trained models can learn universal language representations from massive textual data, which are beneficial to the ranking task of IR. Since there have been a large number of works dedicating to the application of PTMs in IR, we believe it is the right time to summarize the current status, learn from existing methods, and gain some insights for future development. In this survey, we present an overview of PTMs applied in different components of IR system, including the retrieval component, the re-ranking component, and other components. In addition, we also introduce PTMs specifically designed for IR, and summarize available datasets as well as benchmark leaderboards. Moreover, we discuss some open challenges and envision some promising directions, with the hope of inspiring more works on these topics for future research.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
Learning similarity functions between image pairs with deep neural networks yields highly correlated activations of embeddings. In this work, we show how to improve the robustness of such embeddings by exploiting the independence within ensembles. To this end, we divide the last embedding layer of a deep network into an embedding ensemble and formulate training this ensemble as an online gradient boosting problem. Each learner receives a reweighted training sample from the previous learners. Further, we propose two loss functions which increase the diversity in our ensemble. These loss functions can be applied either for weight initialization or during training. Together, our contributions leverage large embedding sizes more effectively by significantly reducing correlation of the embedding and consequently increase retrieval accuracy of the embedding. Our method works with any differentiable loss function and does not introduce any additional parameters during test time. We evaluate our metric learning method on image retrieval tasks and show that it improves over state-of-the-art methods on the CUB 200-2011, Cars-196, Stanford Online Products, In-Shop Clothes Retrieval and VehicleID datasets.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191