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The paper describes a new class of capture-recapture models for closed populations when individual covariates are available. The novelty consists in combining a latent class model for the distribution of the capture history, where the class weights and the conditional distributions given the latent may depend on covariates, with a model for the marginal distribution of the available covariates as in \cite{Liu2017}. In addition, any general form of serial dependence is allowed when modeling capture histories conditionally on the latent and covariates. A Fisher-scoring algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation is proposed, and the Implicit Function Theorem is used to show that the mapping between the marginal distribution of the observed covariates and the probabilities of being never captured is one-to-one. Asymptotic results are outlined, and a procedure for constructing likelihood based confidence intervals for the population size is presented. Two examples based on real data are used to illustrate the proposed approach

We propose a doubly robust approach to characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies. We utilize posterior distributions for both the propensity score and outcome regression models to provide valid inference on the conditional average treatment effect even when high-dimensional or nonparametric models are used. We show that our approach leads to conservative inference in finite samples or under model misspecification, and provides a consistent variance estimator when both models are correctly specified. In simulations, we illustrate the utility of these results in difficult settings such as high-dimensional covariate spaces or highly flexible models for the propensity score and outcome regression. Lastly, we analyze environmental exposure data from NHANES to identify how the effects of these exposures vary by subject-level characteristics.

Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two approaches by proposing to predict with a Gaussian mixture model posterior that consists of a weighted sum of Laplace approximations of independently trained deep neural networks. The method can be used post hoc with any set of pre-trained networks and only requires a small computational and memory overhead compared to regular ensembles. We theoretically validate that our approach mitigates overconfidence "far away" from the training data and empirically compare against state-of-the-art baselines on standard uncertainty quantification benchmarks.

Measurement error is a pervasive issue which renders the results of an analysis unreliable. The measurement error literature contains numerous correction techniques, which can be broadly divided into those which aim to produce exactly consistent estimators, and those which are only approximately consistent. While consistency is a desirable property, it is typically attained only under specific model assumptions. Two techniques, regression calibration and simulation extrapolation, are used frequently in a wide variety of parametric and semiparametric settings. However, in many settings these methods are only approximately consistent. We generalize these corrections, relaxing assumptions placed on replicate measurements. Under regularity conditions, the estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal, with a sandwich estimator for the asymptotic variance. Through simulation, we demonstrate the improved performance of the modified estimators, over the standard techniques, when these assumptions are violated. We motivate these corrections using the Framingham Heart Study, and apply the generalized techniques to an analysis of these data.

Clinical studies often encounter with truncation-by-death problems, which may render the outcomes undefined. Statistical analysis based only on observed survivors may lead to biased results because the characters of survivors may differ greatly between treatment groups. Under the principal stratification framework, a meaningful causal parameter, the survivor average causal effect, in the always-survivor group can be defined. This causal parameter may not be identifiable in observational studies where the treatment assignment and the survival or outcome process are confounded by unmeasured features. In this paper, we propose a new method to deal with unmeasured confounding when the outcome is truncated by death. First, a new method is proposed to identify the heterogeneous conditional survivor average causal effect based on a substitutional variable under monotonicity. Second, under additional assumptions, the survivor average causal effect on the overall population is also identified. Furthermore, we consider estimation and inference for the conditional survivor average causal effect based on parametric and nonparametric methods with good asymptotic properties. Good finite-sample properties are demonstrated by simulation and sensitivity analysis. The proposed method is applied to investigate the effect of allogeneic stem cell transplantation types on leukemia relapse.

Functional data analysis has attracted considerable interest and is facing new challenges, one of which is the increasingly available data in a streaming manner. In this article we develop an online nonparametric method to dynamically update the estimates of mean and covariance functions for functional data. The kernel-type estimates can be decomposed into two sufficient statistics depending on the data-driven bandwidths. We propose to approximate the future optimal bandwidths by a sequence of dynamically changing candidates and combine the corresponding statistics across blocks to form the updated estimation. The proposed online method is easy to compute based on the stored sufficient statistics and the current data block. We derive the asymptotic normality and, more importantly, the relative efficiency lower bounds of the online estimates of mean and covariance functions. This provides insight into the relationship between estimation accuracy and computational cost driven by the length of candidate bandwidth sequence. Simulations and real data examples are provided to support such findings.

Gaussian covariance graph model is a popular model in revealing underlying dependency structures among random variables. A Bayesian approach to the estimation of covariance structures uses priors that force zeros on some off-diagonal entries of covariance matrices and put a positive definite constraint on matrices. In this paper, we consider a spike and slab prior on off-diagonal entries, which uses a mixture of point-mass and normal distribution. The point-mass naturally introduces sparsity to covariance structures so that the resulting posterior from this prior renders covariance structure learning. Under this prior, we calculate posterior model probabilities of covariance structures using Laplace approximation. We show that the error due to Laplace approximation becomes asymptotically marginal at some rate depending on the posterior convergence rate of covariance matrix under the Frobenius norm. With the approximated posterior model probabilities, we propose a new framework for estimating a covariance structure. Since the Laplace approximation is done around the mode of conditional posterior of covariance matrix, which cannot be obtained in the closed form, we propose a block coordinate descent algorithm to find the mode and show that the covariance matrix can be estimated using this algorithm once the structure is chosen. Through a simulation study based on five numerical models, we show that the proposed method outperforms graphical lasso and sample covariance matrix in terms of root mean squared error, max norm, spectral norm, specificity, and sensitivity. Also, the advantage of the proposed method is demonstrated in terms of accuracy compared to our competitors when it is applied to linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classification to breast cancer diagnostic dataset.

Latent position network models are a versatile tool in network science; applications include clustering entities, controlling for causal confounders, and defining priors over unobserved graphs. Estimating each node's latent position is typically framed as a Bayesian inference problem, with Metropolis within Gibbs being the most popular tool for approximating the posterior distribution. However, it is well-known that Metropolis within Gibbs is inefficient for large networks; the acceptance ratios are expensive to compute, and the resultant posterior draws are highly correlated. In this article, we propose an alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy -- defined using a combination of split Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Firefly Monte Carlo -- that leverages the posterior distribution's functional form for more efficient posterior computation. We demonstrate that these strategies outperform Metropolis within Gibbs and other algorithms on synthetic networks, as well as on real information-sharing networks of teachers and staff in a school district.

UMAP (Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection) is a novel manifold learning technique for dimension reduction. UMAP is constructed from a theoretical framework based in Riemannian geometry and algebraic topology. The result is a practical scalable algorithm that applies to real world data. The UMAP algorithm is competitive with t-SNE for visualization quality, and arguably preserves more of the global structure with superior run time performance. Furthermore, UMAP has no computational restrictions on embedding dimension, making it viable as a general purpose dimension reduction technique for machine learning.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.