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Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Multi-party business processes rely on the collaboration of various players in a decentralized setting. Blockchain technology can facilitate the automation of these processes, even in cases where trust among participants is limited. Transactions are stored in a ledger, a replica of which is retained by every node of the blockchain network. The operations saved thereby are thus publicly accessible. While this enhances transparency, reliability, and persistence, it hinders the utilization of public blockchains for process automation as it violates typical confidentiality requirements in corporate settings. In this paper, we propose MARTSIA: A Multi-Authority Approach to Transaction Systems for Interoperating Applications. MARTSIA enables precise control over process data at the level of message parts. Based on Multi-Authority Attribute-Based Encryption (MA-ABE), MARTSIA realizes a number of desirable properties, including confidentiality, transparency, and auditability. We implemented our approach in proof-of-concept prototypes, with which we conduct a case study in the area of supply chain management. Also, we show the integration of MARTSIA with a state-of-the-art blockchain-based process execution engine to secure the data flow.

Multiple systems estimation is a standard approach to quantifying hidden populations where data sources are based on lists of known cases. A typical modelling approach is to fit a Poisson loglinear model to the numbers of cases observed in each possible combination of the lists. It is necessary to decide which interaction parameters to include in the model, and information criterion approaches are often used for model selection. Difficulties in the context of multiple systems estimation may arise due to sparse or nil counts based on the intersection of lists, and care must be taken when information criterion approaches are used for model selection due to issues relating to the existence of estimates and identifiability of the model. Confidence intervals are often reported conditional on the model selected, providing an over-optimistic impression of the accuracy of the estimation. A bootstrap approach is a natural way to account for the model selection procedure. However, because the model selection step has to be carried out for every bootstrap replication, there may be a high or even prohibitive computational burden. We explore the merit of modifying the model selection procedure in the bootstrap to look only among a subset of models, chosen on the basis of their information criterion score on the original data. This provides large computational gains with little apparent effect on inference. Another model selection approach considered and investigated is a downhill search approach among models, possibly with multiple starting points.

The ability to predict traffic flow over time for crowded areas during rush hours is increasingly important as it can help authorities make informed decisions for congestion mitigation or scheduling of infrastructure development in an area. However, a crucial challenge in traffic flow forecasting is the slow shifting in temporal peaks between daily and weekly cycles, resulting in the nonstationarity of the traffic flow signal and leading to difficulty in accurate forecasting. To address this challenge, we propose a slow shifting concerned machine learning method for traffic flow forecasting, which includes two parts. First, we take advantage of Empirical Mode Decomposition as the feature engineering to alleviate the nonstationarity of traffic flow data, yielding a series of stationary components. Second, due to the superiority of Long-Short-Term-Memory networks in capturing temporal features, an advanced traffic flow forecasting model is developed by taking the stationary components as inputs. Finally, we apply this method on a benchmark of real-world data and provide a comparison with other existing methods. Our proposed method outperforms the state-of-art results by 14.55% and 62.56% using the metrics of root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, respectively.

The information bottleneck (IB) method offers an attractive framework for understanding representation learning, however its applications are often limited by its computational intractability. Analytical characterization of the IB method is not only of practical interest, but it can also lead to new insights into learning phenomena. Here we consider a generalized IB problem, in which the mutual information in the original IB method is replaced by correlation measures based on Renyi and Jeffreys divergences. We derive an exact analytical IB solution for the case of Gaussian correlated variables. Our analysis reveals a series of structural transitions, similar to those previously observed in the original IB case. We find further that although solving the original, Renyi and Jeffreys IB problems yields different representations in general, the structural transitions occur at the same critical tradeoff parameters, and the Renyi and Jeffreys IB solutions perform well under the original IB objective. Our results suggest that formulating the IB method with alternative correlation measures could offer a strategy for obtaining an approximate solution to the original IB problem.

Apps and devices (mobile devices, web browsers, IoT, VR, voice assistants, etc.) routinely collect user data, and send them to first- and third-party servers through the network. Recently, there is a lot of interest in (1) auditing the actual data collection practices of those systems; and also in (2) checking the consistency of those practices against the statements made in the corresponding privacy policies. In this paper, we argue that the contextual integrity (CI) tuple can be the basic building block for defining and implementing such an auditing framework. We elaborate on the special case where the tuple is partially extracted from the network traffic generated by the end-device of interest, and partially from the corresponding privacy policies using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. Along the way, we discuss related bodies of work and representative examples that fit into that framework. More generally, we believe that CI can be the building block not only for auditing at the edge, but also for specifying privacy policies and system APIs. We also discuss limitations and directions for future work.

With the urgent demand for generalized deep models, many pre-trained big models are proposed, such as BERT, ViT, GPT, etc. Inspired by the success of these models in single domains (like computer vision and natural language processing), the multi-modal pre-trained big models have also drawn more and more attention in recent years. In this work, we give a comprehensive survey of these models and hope this paper could provide new insights and helps fresh researchers to track the most cutting-edge works. Specifically, we firstly introduce the background of multi-modal pre-training by reviewing the conventional deep learning, pre-training works in natural language process, computer vision, and speech. Then, we introduce the task definition, key challenges, and advantages of multi-modal pre-training models (MM-PTMs), and discuss the MM-PTMs with a focus on data, objectives, network architectures, and knowledge enhanced pre-training. After that, we introduce the downstream tasks used for the validation of large-scale MM-PTMs, including generative, classification, and regression tasks. We also give visualization and analysis of the model parameters and results on representative downstream tasks. Finally, we point out possible research directions for this topic that may benefit future works. In addition, we maintain a continuously updated paper list for large-scale pre-trained multi-modal big models: //github.com/wangxiao5791509/MultiModal_BigModels_Survey

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Data in Knowledge Graphs often represents part of the current state of the real world. Thus, to stay up-to-date the graph data needs to be updated frequently. To utilize information from Knowledge Graphs, many state-of-the-art machine learning approaches use embedding techniques. These techniques typically compute an embedding, i.e., vector representations of the nodes as input for the main machine learning algorithm. If a graph update occurs later on -- specifically when nodes are added or removed -- the training has to be done all over again. This is undesirable, because of the time it takes and also because downstream models which were trained with these embeddings have to be retrained if they change significantly. In this paper, we investigate embedding updates that do not require full retraining and evaluate them in combination with various embedding models on real dynamic Knowledge Graphs covering multiple use cases. We study approaches that place newly appearing nodes optimally according to local information, but notice that this does not work well. However, we find that if we continue the training of the old embedding, interleaved with epochs during which we only optimize for the added and removed parts, we obtain good results in terms of typical metrics used in link prediction. This performance is obtained much faster than with a complete retraining and hence makes it possible to maintain embeddings for dynamic Knowledge Graphs.

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, such as quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a $ProbSparse$ Self-attention mechanism, which achieves $O(L \log L)$ in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.