More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable initial distribution and the target distribution of interest which we simulate from approximately using a non-homogeneous Markov chain. To obtain an importance sampling estimate of the marginal likelihood, AIS introduces an extended target distribution to reweight the Markov chain proposal. While much effort has been devoted to improving the proposal distribution used by AIS, an underappreciated issue is that AIS uses a convenient but suboptimal extended target distribution. We here leverage recent progress in score-based generative modeling (SGM) to approximate the optimal extended target distribution minimizing the variance of the marginal likelihood estimate for AIS proposals corresponding to the discretization of Langevin and Hamiltonian dynamics. We demonstrate these novel, differentiable, AIS procedures on a number of synthetic benchmark distributions and variational auto-encoders.
Conventional methods for human motion synthesis are either deterministic or struggle with the trade-off between motion diversity and motion quality. In response to these limitations, we introduce MoFusion, i.e., a new denoising-diffusion-based framework for high-quality conditional human motion synthesis that can generate long, temporally plausible, and semantically accurate motions based on a range of conditioning contexts (such as music and text). We also present ways to introduce well-known kinematic losses for motion plausibility within the motion diffusion framework through our scheduled weighting strategy. The learned latent space can be used for several interactive motion editing applications -- like inbetweening, seed conditioning, and text-based editing -- thus, providing crucial abilities for virtual character animation and robotics. Through comprehensive quantitative evaluations and a perceptual user study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MoFusion compared to the state of the art on established benchmarks in the literature. We urge the reader to watch our supplementary video and visit //vcai.mpi-inf.mpg.de/projects/MoFusion.
This paper considers ranking inference of $n$ items based on the observed data on the top choice among $M$ randomly selected items at each trial. This is a useful modification of the Plackett-Luce model for $M$-way ranking with only the top choice observed and is an extension of the celebrated Bradley-Terry-Luce model that corresponds to $M=2$. Under a uniform sampling scheme in which any $M$ distinguished items are selected for comparisons with probability $p$ and the selected $M$ items are compared $L$ times with multinomial outcomes, we establish the statistical rates of convergence for underlying $n$ preference scores using both $\ell_2$-norm and $\ell_\infty$-norm, with the minimum sampling complexity. In addition, we establish the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator that allows us to construct confidence intervals for the underlying scores. Furthermore, we propose a novel inference framework for ranking items through a sophisticated maximum pairwise difference statistic whose distribution is estimated via a valid Gaussian multiplier bootstrap. The estimated distribution is then used to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for the differences in the preference scores and the ranks of individual items. They also enable us to address various inference questions on the ranks of these items. Extensive simulation studies lend further support to our theoretical results. A real data application illustrates the usefulness of the proposed methods convincingly.
In off-policy reinforcement learning, a behaviour policy performs exploratory interactions with the environment to obtain state-action-reward samples which are then used to learn a target policy that optimises the expected return. This leads to a problem of off-policy evaluation, where one needs to evaluate the target policy from samples collected by the often unrelated behaviour policy. Importance sampling is a traditional statistical technique that is often applied to off-policy evaluation. While importance sampling estimators are unbiased, their variance increases exponentially with the horizon of the decision process due to computing the importance weight as a product of action probability ratios, yielding estimates with low accuracy for domains involving long-term planning. This paper proposes state-based importance sampling (SIS), which drops the action probability ratios of sub-trajectories with "neglible states" -- roughly speaking, those for which the chosen actions have no impact on the return estimate -- from the computation of the importance weight. Theoretical results show that this results in a reduction of the exponent in the variance upper bound as well as improving the mean squared error. An automated search algorithm based on covariance testing is proposed to identify a negligible state set which has minimal MSE when performing state-based importance sampling. Experiments are conducted on a lift domain, which include "lift states" where the action has no impact on the following state and reward. The results demonstrate that using the search algorithm, SIS yields reduced variance and improved accuracy compared to traditional importance sampling, per-decision importance sampling, and incremental importance sampling.
Score based approaches to sampling have shown much success as a generative algorithm to produce new samples from a target density given a pool of initial samples. In this work, we consider if we have no initial samples from the target density, but rather $0^{th}$ and $1^{st}$ order oracle access to the log likelihood. Such problems may arise in Bayesian posterior sampling, or in approximate minimization of non-convex functions. Using this knowledge alone, we propose a Monte Carlo method to estimate the score empirically as a particular expectation of a random variable. Using this estimator, we can then run a discrete version of the backward flow SDE to produce samples from the target density. This approach has the benefit of not relying on a pool of initial samples from the target density, and it does not rely on a neural network or other black box model to estimate the score.
In this paper, we consider the problem where a drone has to collect semantic information to classify multiple moving targets. In particular, we address the challenge of computing control inputs that move the drone to informative viewpoints, position and orientation, when the information is extracted using a ``black-box'' classifier, e.g., a deep learning neural network. These algorithms typically lack of analytical relationships between the viewpoints and their associated outputs, preventing their use in information-gathering schemes. To fill this gap, we propose a novel attention-based architecture, trained via Reinforcement Learning (RL), that outputs the next viewpoint for the drone favoring the acquisition of evidence from as many unclassified targets as possible while reasoning about their movement, orientation, and occlusions. Then, we use a low-level MPC controller to move the drone to the desired viewpoint taking into account its actual dynamics. We show that our approach not only outperforms a variety of baselines but also generalizes to scenarios unseen during training. Additionally, we show that the network scales to large numbers of targets and generalizes well to different movement dynamics of the targets.
Recent aerial object detection models rely on a large amount of labeled training data, which requires unaffordable manual labeling costs in large aerial scenes with dense objects. Active learning is effective in reducing the data labeling cost by selectively querying the informative and representative unlabelled samples. However, existing active learning methods are mainly with class-balanced setting and image-based querying for generic object detection tasks, which are less applicable to aerial object detection scenario due to the long-tailed class distribution and dense small objects in aerial scenes. In this paper, we propose a novel active learning method for cost-effective aerial object detection. Specifically, both object-level and image-level informativeness are considered in the object selection to refrain from redundant and myopic querying. Besides, an easy-to-use class-balancing criterion is incorporated to favor the minority objects to alleviate the long-tailed class distribution problem in model training. To fully utilize the queried information, we further devise a training loss to mine the latent knowledge in the undiscovered image regions. Extensive experiments are conducted on the DOTA-v1.0 and DOTA-v2.0 benchmarks to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that it can save more than 75% of the labeling cost to reach the same performance compared to the baselines and state-of-the-art active object detection methods. Code is available at //github.com/ZJW700/MUS-CDB
Sampling-based methods have become a cornerstone of contemporary approaches to Model Predictive Control (MPC), as they make no restrictions on the differentiability of the dynamics or cost function and are straightforward to parallelize. However, their efficacy is highly dependent on the quality of the sampling distribution itself, which is often assumed to be simple, like a Gaussian. This restriction can result in samples which are far from optimal, leading to poor performance. Recent work has explored improving the performance of MPC by sampling in a learned latent space of controls. However, these methods ultimately perform all MPC parameter updates and warm-starting between time steps in the control space. This requires us to rely on a number of heuristics for generating samples and updating the distribution and may lead to sub-optimal performance. Instead, we propose to carry out all operations in the latent space, allowing us to take full advantage of the learned distribution. Specifically, we frame the learning problem as bi-level optimization and show how to train the controller with backpropagation-through-time. By using a normalizing flow parameterization of the distribution, we can leverage its tractable density to avoid requiring differentiability of the dynamics and cost function. Finally, we evaluate the proposed approach on simulated robotics tasks and demonstrate its ability to surpass the performance of prior methods and scale better with a reduced number of samples.
Diffusion models have shown incredible capabilities as generative models; indeed, they power the current state-of-the-art models on text-conditioned image generation such as Imagen and DALL-E 2. In this work we review, demystify, and unify the understanding of diffusion models across both variational and score-based perspectives. We first derive Variational Diffusion Models (VDM) as a special case of a Markovian Hierarchical Variational Autoencoder, where three key assumptions enable tractable computation and scalable optimization of the ELBO. We then prove that optimizing a VDM boils down to learning a neural network to predict one of three potential objectives: the original source input from any arbitrary noisification of it, the original source noise from any arbitrarily noisified input, or the score function of a noisified input at any arbitrary noise level. We then dive deeper into what it means to learn the score function, and connect the variational perspective of a diffusion model explicitly with the Score-based Generative Modeling perspective through Tweedie's Formula. Lastly, we cover how to learn a conditional distribution using diffusion models via guidance.
Reasoning with knowledge expressed in natural language and Knowledge Bases (KBs) is a major challenge for Artificial Intelligence, with applications in machine reading, dialogue, and question answering. General neural architectures that jointly learn representations and transformations of text are very data-inefficient, and it is hard to analyse their reasoning process. These issues are addressed by end-to-end differentiable reasoning systems such as Neural Theorem Provers (NTPs), although they can only be used with small-scale symbolic KBs. In this paper we first propose Greedy NTPs (GNTPs), an extension to NTPs addressing their complexity and scalability limitations, thus making them applicable to real-world datasets. This result is achieved by dynamically constructing the computation graph of NTPs and including only the most promising proof paths during inference, thus obtaining orders of magnitude more efficient models. Then, we propose a novel approach for jointly reasoning over KBs and textual mentions, by embedding logic facts and natural language sentences in a shared embedding space. We show that GNTPs perform on par with NTPs at a fraction of their cost while achieving competitive link prediction results on large datasets, providing explanations for predictions, and inducing interpretable models. Source code, datasets, and supplementary material are available online at //github.com/uclnlp/gntp.
How can we estimate the importance of nodes in a knowledge graph (KG)? A KG is a multi-relational graph that has proven valuable for many tasks including question answering and semantic search. In this paper, we present GENI, a method for tackling the problem of estimating node importance in KGs, which enables several downstream applications such as item recommendation and resource allocation. While a number of approaches have been developed to address this problem for general graphs, they do not fully utilize information available in KGs, or lack flexibility needed to model complex relationship between entities and their importance. To address these limitations, we explore supervised machine learning algorithms. In particular, building upon recent advancement of graph neural networks (GNNs), we develop GENI, a GNN-based method designed to deal with distinctive challenges involved with predicting node importance in KGs. Our method performs an aggregation of importance scores instead of aggregating node embeddings via predicate-aware attention mechanism and flexible centrality adjustment. In our evaluation of GENI and existing methods on predicting node importance in real-world KGs with different characteristics, GENI achieves 5-17% higher NDCG@100 than the state of the art.