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Conjectures have historically played an important role in the development of pure mathematics. We propose a systematic approach to finding abstract patterns in mathematical data, in order to generate conjectures about mathematical inequalities, using machine intelligence. We focus on strict inequalities of type f < g and associate them with a vector space. By geometerising this space, which we refer to as a conjecture space, we prove that this space is isomorphic to a Banach manifold. We develop a structural understanding of this conjecture space by studying linear automorphisms of this manifold and show that this space admits several free group actions. Based on these insights, we propose an algorithmic pipeline to generate novel conjectures using geometric gradient descent, where the metric is informed by the invariances of the conjecture space. As proof of concept, we give a toy algorithm to generate novel conjectures about the prime counting function and diameters of Cayley graphs of non-abelian simple groups. We also report private communications with colleagues in which some conjectures were proved, and highlight that some conjectures generated using this procedure are still unproven. Finally, we propose a pipeline of mathematical discovery in this space and highlight the importance of domain expertise in this pipeline.

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數學是關于數量、結構、變化等主題的探索。

Identification of nonlinear dynamical systems has been popularized by sparse identification of the nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) via the sequentially thresholded least squares (STLS) algorithm. Many extensions SINDy have emerged in the literature to deal with experimental data which are finite in length and noisy. Recently, the computationally intensive method of ensembling bootstrapped SINDy models (E-SINDy) was proposed for model identification, handling finite, highly noisy data. While the extensions of SINDy are numerous, their sparsity-promoting estimators occasionally provide sparse approximations of the dynamics as opposed to exact recovery. Furthermore, these estimators suffer under multicollinearity, e.g. the irrepresentable condition for the Lasso. In this paper, we demonstrate that the Trimmed Lasso for robust identification of models (TRIM) can provide exact recovery under more severe noise, finite data, and multicollinearity as opposed to E-SINDy. Additionally, the computational cost of TRIM is asymptotically equal to STLS since the sparsity parameter of the TRIM can be solved efficiently by convex solvers. We compare these methodologies on challenging nonlinear systems, specifically the Lorenz 63 system, the Bouc Wen oscillator from the nonlinear dynamics benchmark of No\"el and Schoukens, 2016, and a time delay system describing tool cutting dynamics. This study emphasizes the comparisons between STLS, reweighted $\ell_1$ minimization, and Trimmed Lasso in identification with respect to problems faced by practitioners: the problem of finite and noisy data, the performance of the sparse regression of when the library grows in dimension (multicollinearity), and automatic methods for choice of regularization parameters.

Designing scalable estimation algorithms is a core challenge in modern statistics. Here we introduce a framework to address this challenge based on parallel approximants, which yields estimators with provable properties that operate on the entirety of very large, distributed data sets. We first formalize the class of statistics which admit straightforward calculation in distributed environments through independent parallelization. We then show how to use such statistics to approximate arbitrary functional operators in appropriate spaces, yielding a general estimation framework that does not require data to reside entirely in memory. We characterize the $L^2$ approximation properties of our approach and provide fully implemented examples of sample quantile calculation and local polynomial regression in a distributed computing environment. A variety of avenues and extensions remain open for future work.

Sequential algorithms such as sequential importance sampling (SIS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) have proven fundamental in Bayesian inference for models not admitting a readily available likelihood function. For approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), SMC-ABC is the state-of-art sampler. However, since the ABC paradigm is intrinsically wasteful, sequential ABC schemes can benefit from well-targeted proposal samplers that efficiently avoid improbable parameter regions. We contribute to the ABC modeller's toolbox with novel proposal samplers that are conditional to summary statistics of the data. In a sense, the proposed parameters are "guided" to rapidly reach regions of the posterior surface that are compatible with the observed data. This speeds up the convergence of these sequential samplers, thus reducing the computational effort, while preserving the accuracy in the inference. We provide a variety of guided Gaussian and copula-based samplers for both SIS-ABC and SMC-ABC easing inference for challenging case-studies, including multimodal posteriors, highly correlated posteriors, hierarchical models with high-dimensional summary statistics (180 summaries used to infer 21 parameters) and a simulation study of cell movements (using more than 400 summaries).

We consider finite element approximations to the optimal constant for the Hardy inequality with exponent $p=2$ in bounded domains of dimension $n=1$ or $n\geq 3$. For finite element spaces of piecewise linear and continuous functions on a mesh of size $h$, we prove that the approximate Hardy constant, $S_h^n$, converges to the optimal Hardy constant $S^n$ no slower than $O(1/\vert \log h \vert)$. We also show that the convergence is no faster than $O(1/\vert \log h \vert^2)$ if $n=1$ or if $n\geq 3$, the domain is the unit ball, and the finite element discretization exploits the rotational symmetry of the problem. Our estimates are compared to exact values for $S_h^n$ obtained computationally.

We propose a new discrete choice model, called the generalized stochastic preference (GSP) model, that incorporates non-rationality into the stochastic preference (SP) choice model, also known as the rank- based choice model. Our model can explain several choice phenomena that cannot be represented by any SP model such as the compromise and attraction effects, but still subsumes the SP model class. The GSP model is defined as a distribution over consumer types, where each type extends the choice behavior of rational types in the SP model. We build on existing methods for estimating the SP model and propose an iterative estimation algorithm for the GSP model that finds new types by solving a integer linear program in each iteration. We further show that our proposed notion of non-rationality can be incorporated into other choice models, like the random utility maximization (RUM) model class as well as any of its subclasses. As a concrete example, we introduce the non-rational extension of the classical MNL model, which we term the generalized MNL (GMNL) model and present an efficient expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the GMNL model. Numerical evaluation on real choice data shows that the GMNL and GSP models can outperform their rational counterparts in out-of-sample prediction accuracy.

We consider the problem of computing a sparse binary representation of an image. To be precise, given an image and an overcomplete, non-orthonormal basis, we aim to find a sparse binary vector indicating the minimal set of basis vectors that when added together best reconstruct the given input. We formulate this problem with an $L_2$ loss on the reconstruction error, and an $L_0$ (or, equivalently, an $L_1$) loss on the binary vector enforcing sparsity. This yields a so-called Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem, whose solution is generally NP-hard to find. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, the method of unsupervised and unnormalized dictionary feature learning for a desired sparsity level to best match the data is presented. Second, the binary sparse coding problem is then solved on the Loihi 1 neuromorphic chip by the use of stochastic networks of neurons to traverse the non-convex energy landscape. The solutions are benchmarked against the classical heuristic simulated annealing. We demonstrate neuromorphic computing is suitable for sampling low energy solutions of binary sparse coding QUBO models, and although Loihi 1 is capable of sampling very sparse solutions of the QUBO models, there needs to be improvement in the implementation in order to be competitive with simulated annealing.

We develop a numerical method for computing with orthogonal polynomials that are orthogonal on multiple, disjoint intervals for which analytical formulae are currently unknown. Our approach exploits the Fokas--Its--Kitaev Riemann--Hilbert representation of the orthogonal polynomials to produce an $\text{O}(N)$ method to compute the first $N$ recurrence coefficients. The method can also be used for pointwise evaluation of the polynomials and their Cauchy transforms throughout the complex plane. The method encodes the singularity behavior of weight functions using weighted Cauchy integrals of Chebyshev polynomials. This greatly improves the efficiency of the method, outperforming other available techniques. We demonstrate the fast convergence of our method and present applications to integrable systems and approximation theory.

The utility of reinforcement learning is limited by the alignment of reward functions with the interests of human stakeholders. One promising method for alignment is to learn the reward function from human-generated preferences between pairs of trajectory segments, a type of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). These human preferences are typically assumed to be informed solely by partial return, the sum of rewards along each segment. We find this assumption to be flawed and propose modeling human preferences instead as informed by each segment's regret, a measure of a segment's deviation from optimal decision-making. Given infinitely many preferences generated according to regret, we prove that we can identify a reward function equivalent to the reward function that generated those preferences, and we prove that the previous partial return model lacks this identifiability property in multiple contexts. We empirically show that our proposed regret preference model outperforms the partial return preference model with finite training data in otherwise the same setting. Additionally, we find that our proposed regret preference model better predicts real human preferences and also learns reward functions from these preferences that lead to policies that are better human-aligned. Overall, this work establishes that the choice of preference model is impactful, and our proposed regret preference model provides an improvement upon a core assumption of recent research. We have open sourced our experimental code, the human preferences dataset we gathered, and our training and preference elicitation interfaces for gathering a such a dataset.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

Deep learning is usually described as an experiment-driven field under continuous criticizes of lacking theoretical foundations. This problem has been partially fixed by a large volume of literature which has so far not been well organized. This paper reviews and organizes the recent advances in deep learning theory. The literature is categorized in six groups: (1) complexity and capacity-based approaches for analyzing the generalizability of deep learning; (2) stochastic differential equations and their dynamic systems for modelling stochastic gradient descent and its variants, which characterize the optimization and generalization of deep learning, partially inspired by Bayesian inference; (3) the geometrical structures of the loss landscape that drives the trajectories of the dynamic systems; (4) the roles of over-parameterization of deep neural networks from both positive and negative perspectives; (5) theoretical foundations of several special structures in network architectures; and (6) the increasingly intensive concerns in ethics and security and their relationships with generalizability.

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