亚洲男人的天堂2018av,欧美草比,久久久久久免费视频精选,国色天香在线看免费,久久久久亚洲av成人片仓井空

Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving rise to $m$ conformal $p$-values. {While classical results only concern their marginal distribution, we show that their joint distribution follows a P\'olya urn model, and establish a concentration inequality for their empirical distribution function.} The results hold for arbitrary exchangeable scores, including {\it adaptive} ones that can use the covariates of the test+calibration samples at training stage for increased accuracy. We demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical results through uniform, in-probability guarantees for two machine learning tasks of current interest: interval prediction for transductive transfer learning and novelty detection based on two-class classification.

In this paper we consider the finite element approximation of Maxwell's problem and analyse the prescription of essential boundary conditions in a weak sense using Nitsche's method. To avoid indefiniteness of the problem, the original equations are augmented with the gradient of a scalar field that allows one to impose the zero divergence of the magnetic induction, even if the exact solution for this scalar field is zero. Two finite element approximations are considered, namely, one in which the approximation spaces are assumed to satisfy the appropriate inf-sup condition that render the standard Galerkin method stable, and another augmented and stabilised one that permits the use of finite element interpolations of arbitrary order. Stability and convergence results are provided for the two finite element formulations considered.

Threshold selection is a fundamental problem in any threshold-based extreme value analysis. While models are asymptotically motivated, selecting an appropriate threshold for finite samples can be difficult through standard methods. Inference can also be highly sensitive to the choice of threshold. Too low a threshold choice leads to bias in the fit of the extreme value model, while too high a choice leads to unnecessary additional uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters. In this paper, we develop a novel methodology for automated threshold selection that directly tackles this bias-variance trade-off. We also develop a method to account for the uncertainty in this threshold choice and propagate this uncertainty through to high quantile inference. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for threshold selection and subsequent extreme quantile estimation. We apply our method to the well-known, troublesome example of the River Nidd dataset.

Difference-in-differences (DID) is a popular approach to identify the causal effects of treatments and policies in the presence of unmeasured confounding. DID identifies the sample average treatment effect in the treated (SATT). However, a goal of such research is often to inform decision-making in target populations outside the treated sample. Transportability methods have been developed to extend inferences from study samples to external target populations; these methods have primarily been developed and applied in settings where identification is based on conditional independence between the treatment and potential outcomes, such as in a randomized trial. This paper develops identification and estimators for effects in a target population, based on DID conducted in a study sample that differs from the target population. We present a range of assumptions under which one may identify causal effects in the target population and employ causal diagrams to illustrate these assumptions. In most realistic settings, results depend critically on the assumption that any unmeasured confounders are not effect measure modifiers on the scale of the effect of interest. We develop several estimators of transported effects, including a doubly robust estimator based on the efficient influence function. Simulation results support theoretical properties of the proposed estimators. We discuss the potential application of our approach to a study of the effects of a US federal smoke-free housing policy, where the original study was conducted in New York City alone and the goal is extend inferences to other US cities.

Generative diffusion models have achieved spectacular performance in many areas of generative modeling. While the fundamental ideas behind these models come from non-equilibrium physics, in this paper we show that many aspects of these models can be understood using the tools of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Using this reformulation, we show that generative diffusion models undergo second-order phase transitions corresponding to symmetry breaking phenomena. We argue that this lead to a form of instability that lies at the heart of their generative capabilities and that can be described by a set of mean field critical exponents. We conclude by analyzing recent work connecting diffusion models and associative memory networks in view of the thermodynamic formulations.

When multiple self-adaptive systems share the same environment and have common goals, they may coordinate their adaptations at runtime to avoid conflicts and to satisfy their goals. There are two approaches to coordination. (1) Logically centralized, where a supervisor has complete control over the individual self-adaptive systems. Such approach is infeasible when the systems have different owners or administrative domains. (2) Logically decentralized, where coordination is achieved through direct interactions. Because the individual systems have control over the information they share, decentralized coordination accommodates multiple administrative domains. However, existing techniques do not account simultaneously for both local concerns, e.g., preferences, and shared concerns, e.g., conflicts, which may lead to goals not being achieved as expected. Our idea to address this shortcoming is to express both types of concerns within the same constraint optimization problem. We propose CoADAPT, a decentralized coordination technique introducing two types of constraints: preference constraints, expressing local concerns, and consistency constraints, expressing shared concerns. At runtime, the problem is solved in a decentralized way using distributed constraint optimization algorithms implemented by each self-adaptive system. As a first step in realizing CoADAPT, we focus in this work on the coordination of adaptation planning strategies, traditionally addressed only with centralized techniques. We show the feasibility of CoADAPT in an exemplar from cloud computing and analyze experimentally its scalability.

The prevailing statistical approach to analyzing persistence diagrams is concerned with filtering out topological noise. In this paper, we adopt a different viewpoint and aim at estimating the actual distribution of a random persistence diagram, which captures both topological signal and noise. To that effect, Chazel and Divol (2019) proved that, under general conditions, the expected value of a random persistence diagram is a measure admitting a Lebesgue density, called the persistence intensity function. In this paper, we are concerned with estimating the persistence intensity function and a novel, normalized version of it -- called the persistence density function. We present a class of kernel-based estimators based on an i.i.d. sample of persistence diagrams and derive estimation rates in the supremum norm. As a direct corollary, we obtain uniform consistency rates for estimating linear representations of persistence diagrams, including Betti numbers and persistence surfaces. Interestingly, the persistence density function delivers stronger statistical guarantees.

In the present era of sustainable innovation, the circular economy paradigm dictates the optimal use and exploitation of existing finite resources. At the same time, the transition to smart infrastructures requires considerable investment in capital, resources and people. In this work, we present a general machine learning approach for offering indoor location awareness without the need to invest in additional and specialised hardware. We explore use cases where visitors equipped with their smart phone would interact with the available WiFi infrastructure to estimate their location, since the indoor requirement poses a limitation to standard GPS solutions. Results have shown that the proposed approach achieves a less than 2m accuracy and the model is resilient even in the case where a substantial number of BSSIDs are dropped.

Feature attribution is a fundamental task in both machine learning and data analysis, which involves determining the contribution of individual features or variables to a model's output. This process helps identify the most important features for predicting an outcome. The history of feature attribution methods can be traced back to General Additive Models (GAMs), which extend linear regression models by incorporating non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables. In recent years, gradient-based methods and surrogate models have been applied to unravel complex Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, but these methods have limitations. GAMs tend to achieve lower accuracy, gradient-based methods can be difficult to interpret, and surrogate models often suffer from stability and fidelity issues. Furthermore, most existing methods do not consider users' contexts, which can significantly influence their preferences. To address these limitations and advance the current state-of-the-art, we define a novel feature attribution framework called Context-Aware Feature Attribution Through Argumentation (CA-FATA). Our framework harnesses the power of argumentation by treating each feature as an argument that can either support, attack or neutralize a prediction. Additionally, CA-FATA formulates feature attribution as an argumentation procedure, and each computation has explicit semantics, which makes it inherently interpretable. CA-FATA also easily integrates side information, such as users' contexts, resulting in more accurate predictions.

We study the stability of randomized Taylor schemes for ODEs. We consider three notions of probabilistic stability: asymptotic stability, mean-square stability, and stability in probability. We prove fundamental properties of the probabilistic stability regions and benchmark them against the absolute stability regions for deterministic Taylor schemes.