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Calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used to assess the quality of univariate distributional forecasts. However, PIT-based calibration tests for multivariate distributional forecasts face various challenges. We propose two new types of tests based on proper scoring rules, which overcome these challenges. They arise from a general framework for calibration testing in the multivariate case, introduced in this work. The new tests have good size and power properties in simulations and solve various problems of existing tests. We apply the tests to forecast distributions for macroeconomic and financial time series data.

In this work, an efficient and robust isogeometric three-dimensional solid-beam finite element is developed for large deformations and finite rotations with merely displacements as degrees of freedom. The finite strain theory and hyperelastic constitutive models are considered and B-Spline and NURBS are employed for the finite element discretization. Similar to finite elements based on Lagrange polynomials, also NURBS-based formulations are affected by the non-physical phenomena of locking, which constrains the field variables and negatively impacts the solution accuracy and deteriorates convergence behavior. To avoid this problem within the context of a Solid-Beam formulation, the Assumed Natural Strain (ANS) method is applied to alleviate membrane and transversal shear locking and the Enhanced Assumed Strain (EAS) method against Poisson thickness locking. Furthermore, the Mixed Integration Point (MIP) method is employed to make the formulation more efficient and robust. The proposed novel isogeometric solid-beam element is tested on several single-patch and multi-patch benchmark problems, and it is validated against classical solid finite elements and isoparametric solid-beam elements. The results show that the proposed formulation can alleviate the locking effects and significantly improve the performance of the isogeometric solid-beam element. With the developed element, efficient and accurate predictions of mechanical properties of lattice-based structured materials can be achieved. The proposed solid-beam element inherits both the merits of solid elements e.g. flexible boundary conditions and of the beam elements i.e. higher computational efficiency.

The impact of outliers and anomalies on model estimation and data processing is of paramount importance, as evidenced by the extensive body of research spanning various fields over several decades: thousands of research papers have been published on the subject. As a consequence, numerous reviews, surveys, and textbooks have sought to summarize the existing literature, encompassing a wide range of methods from both the statistical and data mining communities. While these endeavors to organize and summarize the research are invaluable, they face inherent challenges due to the pervasive nature of outliers and anomalies in all data-intensive applications, irrespective of the specific application field or scientific discipline. As a result, the resulting collection of papers remains voluminous and somewhat heterogeneous. To address the need for knowledge organization in this domain, this paper implements the first systematic meta-survey of general surveys and reviews on outlier and anomaly detection. Employing a classical systematic survey approach, the study collects nearly 500 papers using two specialized scientific search engines. From this comprehensive collection, a subset of 56 papers that claim to be general surveys on outlier detection is selected using a snowball search technique to enhance field coverage. A meticulous quality assessment phase further refines the selection to a subset of 25 high-quality general surveys. Using this curated collection, the paper investigates the evolution of the outlier detection field over a 20-year period, revealing emerging themes and methods. Furthermore, an analysis of the surveys sheds light on the survey writing practices adopted by scholars from different communities who have contributed to this field. Finally, the paper delves into several topics where consensus has emerged from the literature. These include taxonomies of outlier types, challenges posed by high-dimensional data, the importance of anomaly scores, the impact of learning conditions, difficulties in benchmarking, and the significance of neural networks. Non-consensual aspects are also discussed, particularly the distinction between local and global outliers and the challenges in organizing detection methods into meaningful taxonomies.

In survival analysis, complex machine learning algorithms have been increasingly used for predictive modeling. Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. In particular, in HIV vaccine trials, participant baseline characteristics are used to predict the probability of infection over the intended follow-up period, and investigators may wish to understand how much certain types of predictors, such as behavioral factors, contribute toward overall predictiveness. Time-to-event outcomes such as time to infection are often subject to right censoring, and existing methods for assessing variable importance are typically not intended to be used in this setting. We describe a broad class of algorithm-agnostic variable importance measures for prediction in the context of survival data. We propose a nonparametric efficient estimation procedure that incorporates flexible learning of nuisance parameters, yields asymptotically valid inference, and enjoys double-robustness. We assess the performance of our proposed procedure via numerical simulations and analyze data from the HVTN 702 study to inform enrollment strategies for future HIV vaccine trials.

We consider the problem of chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function and satisfy constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The real world declinations of this problem are particularly challenging because of their inherent computational cost. To tackle such problems, we propose a new Bayesian optimization method. It applies to the situation where the uncertainty comes from some of the inputs, so that it becomes possible to define an acquisition criterion in the joint controlled-uncontrolled input space. The main contribution of this work is an acquisition criterion that accounts for both the average improvement in objective function and the constraint reliability. The criterion is derived following the Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction logic and its maximization provides both optimal controlled and uncontrolled parameters. Analytical expressions are given to efficiently calculate the criterion. Numerical studies on test functions are presented. It is found through experimental comparisons with alternative sampling criteria that the adequation between the sampling criterion and the problem contributes to the efficiency of the overall optimization. As a side result, an expression for the variance of the improvement is given.

Singularly perturbed boundary value problems pose a significant challenge for their numerical approximations because of the presence of sharp boundary layers. These sharp boundary layers are responsible for the stiffness of solutions, which leads to large computational errors, if not properly handled. It is well-known that the classical numerical methods as well as the Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) require some special treatments near the boundary, e.g., using extensive mesh refinements or finer collocation points, in order to obtain an accurate approximate solution especially inside of the stiff boundary layer. In this article, we modify the PINNs and construct our new semi-analytic SL-PINNs suitable for singularly perturbed boundary value problems. Performing the boundary layer analysis, we first find the corrector functions describing the singular behavior of the stiff solutions inside boundary layers. Then we obtain the SL-PINN approximations of the singularly perturbed problems by embedding the explicit correctors in the structure of PINNs or by training the correctors together with the PINN approximations. Our numerical experiments confirm that our new SL-PINN methods produce stable and accurate approximations for stiff solutions.

The accurate and efficient evaluation of Newtonian potentials over general 2-D domains is important for the numerical solution of Poisson's equation and volume integral equations. In this paper, we present a simple and efficient high-order algorithm for computing the Newtonian potential over a planar domain discretized by an unstructured mesh. The algorithm is based on the use of Green's third identity for transforming the Newtonian potential into a collection of layer potentials over the boundaries of the mesh elements, which can be easily evaluated by the Helsing-Ojala method. One important component of our algorithm is the use of high-order (up to order 20) bivariate polynomial interpolation in the monomial basis, for which we provide extensive justification. The performance of our algorithm is illustrated through several numerical experiments.

Finite-dimensional truncations are routinely used to approximate partial differential equations (PDEs), either to obtain numerical solutions or to derive reduced-order models. The resulting discretized equations are known to violate certain physical properties of the system. In particular, first integrals of the PDE may not remain invariant after discretization. Here, we use the method of reduced-order nonlinear solutions (RONS) to ensure that the conserved quantities of the PDE survive its finite-dimensional truncation. In particular, we develop two methods: Galerkin RONS and finite volume RONS. Galerkin RONS ensures the conservation of first integrals in Galerkin-type truncations, whether used for direct numerical simulations or reduced-order modeling. Similarly, finite volume RONS conserves any number of first integrals of the system, including its total energy, after finite volume discretization. Both methods are applicable to general time-dependent PDEs and can be easily incorporated in existing Galerkin-type or finite volume code. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods on two examples: direct numerical simulations of the shallow water equation and a reduced-order model of the nonlinear Schrodinger equation. As a byproduct, we also generalize RONS to phenomena described by a system of PDEs.

We introduce a framework for constructing quantum codes defined on spheres by recasting such codes as quantum analogues of the classical spherical codes. We apply this framework to bosonic coding, obtaining multimode extensions of the cat codes that can outperform previous constructions while requiring a similar type of overhead. Our polytope-based cat codes consist of sets of points with large separation that at the same time form averaging sets known as spherical designs. We also recast concatenations of CSS codes with cat codes as quantum spherical codes, revealing a new way to autonomously protect against dephasing noise.