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We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that the time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms based on temporal residuals are not applicable. The main idea is to exploit the temporal dependence of conformity scores; thus, the past conformity scores contain information about future ones. Then we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of \texttt{SPCI} compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based image super-resolution (SR) has exhibited impressive success on known degraded low-resolution (LR) images. However, this type of approach is hard to hold its performance in practical scenarios when the degradation process is unknown. Despite existing blind SR methods proposed to solve this problem using blur kernel estimation, the perceptual quality and reconstruction accuracy are still unsatisfactory. In this paper, we analyze the degradation of a high-resolution (HR) image from image intrinsic components according to a degradation-based formulation model. We propose a components decomposition and co-optimization network (CDCN) for blind SR. Firstly, CDCN decomposes the input LR image into structure and detail components in feature space. Then, the mutual collaboration block (MCB) is presented to exploit the relationship between both two components. In this way, the detail component can provide informative features to enrich the structural context and the structure component can carry structural context for better detail revealing via a mutual complementary manner. After that, we present a degradation-driven learning strategy to jointly supervise the HR image detail and structure restoration process. Finally, a multi-scale fusion module followed by an upsampling layer is designed to fuse the structure and detail features and perform SR reconstruction. Empowered by such degradation-based components decomposition, collaboration, and mutual optimization, we can bridge the correlation between component learning and degradation modelling for blind SR, thereby producing SR results with more accurate textures. Extensive experiments on both synthetic SR datasets and real-world images show that the proposed method achieves the state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods.

Permutation tests date back nearly a century to Fisher's randomized experiments, and remain an immensely popular statistical tool, used for testing hypotheses of independence between variables and other common inferential questions. Much of the existing literature has emphasized that, for the permutation p-value to be valid, one must first pick a subgroup $G$ of permutations (which could equal the full group) and then recalculate the test statistic on permuted data using either an exhaustive enumeration of $G$, or a sample from $G$ drawn uniformly at random. In this work, we demonstrate that the focus on subgroups and uniform sampling are both unnecessary for validity -- in fact, a simple random modification of the permutation p-value remains valid even when using an arbitrary distribution (not necessarily uniform) over any subset of permutations (not necessarily a subgroup). We provide a unified theoretical treatment of such generalized permutation tests, recovering all known results from the literature as special cases. Thus, this work expands the flexibility of the permutation test toolkit available to the practitioner.

The compute-intensive nature of neural networks (NNs) limits their deployment in resource-constrained environments such as cell phones, drones, autonomous robots, etc. Hence, developing robust sparse models fit for safety-critical applications has been an issue of longstanding interest. Though adversarial training with model sparsification has been combined to attain the goal, conventional adversarial training approaches provide no formal guarantee that the models would be robust against any rogue samples in a restricted space around a benign sample. Recently proposed verified local robustness techniques provide such a guarantee. This is the first paper that combines the ideas from verified local robustness and dynamic sparse training to develop `SparseVLR'-- a novel framework to search verified locally robust sparse networks. Obtained sparse models exhibit accuracy and robustness comparable to their dense counterparts at sparsity as high as 99%. Furthermore, unlike most conventional sparsification techniques, SparseVLR does not require a pre-trained dense model, reducing the training time by 50%. We exhaustively investigated SparseVLR's efficacy and generalizability by evaluating various benchmark and application-specific datasets across several models.

Machine learning models are critically susceptible to evasion attacks from adversarial examples. Generally, adversarial examples, modified inputs deceptively similar to the original input, are constructed under whitebox settings by adversaries with full access to the model. However, recent attacks have shown a remarkable reduction in query numbers to craft adversarial examples using blackbox attacks. Particularly, alarming is the ability to exploit the classification decision from the access interface of a trained model provided by a growing number of Machine Learning as a Service providers including Google, Microsoft, IBM and used by a plethora of applications incorporating these models. The ability of an adversary to exploit only the predicted label from a model to craft adversarial examples is distinguished as a decision-based attack. In our study, we first deep dive into recent state-of-the-art decision-based attacks in ICLR and SP to highlight the costly nature of discovering low distortion adversarial employing gradient estimation methods. We develop a robust query efficient attack capable of avoiding entrapment in a local minimum and misdirection from noisy gradients seen in gradient estimation methods. The attack method we propose, RamBoAttack, exploits the notion of Randomized Block Coordinate Descent to explore the hidden classifier manifold, targeting perturbations to manipulate only localized input features to address the issues of gradient estimation methods. Importantly, the RamBoAttack is more robust to the different sample inputs available to an adversary and the targeted class. Overall, for a given target class, RamBoAttack is demonstrated to be more robust at achieving a lower distortion within a given query budget. We curate our extensive results using the large-scale high-resolution ImageNet dataset and open-source our attack, test samples and artifacts on GitHub.

Bid optimization for online advertising from single advertiser's perspective has been thoroughly investigated in both academic research and industrial practice. However, existing work typically assume competitors do not change their bids, i.e., the wining price is fixed, leading to poor performance of the derived solution. Although a few studies use multi-agent reinforcement learning to set up a cooperative game, they still suffer the following drawbacks: (1) They fail to avoid collusion solutions where all the advertisers involved in an auction collude to bid an extremely low price on purpose. (2) Previous works cannot well handle the underlying complex bidding environment, leading to poor model convergence. This problem could be amplified when handling multiple objectives of advertisers which are practical demands but not considered by previous work. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-objective cooperative bid optimization formulation called Multi-Agent Cooperative bidding Games (MACG). MACG sets up a carefully designed multi-objective optimization framework where different objectives of advertisers are incorporated. A global objective to maximize the overall profit of all advertisements is added in order to encourage better cooperation and also to protect self-bidding advertisers. To avoid collusion, we also introduce an extra platform revenue constraint. We analyze the optimal functional form of the bidding formula theoretically and design a policy network accordingly to generate auction-level bids. Then we design an efficient multi-agent evolutionary strategy for model optimization. Offline experiments and online A/B tests conducted on the Taobao platform indicate both single advertiser's objective and global profit have been significantly improved compared to state-of-art methods.

A community reveals the features and connections of its members that are different from those in other communities in a network. Detecting communities is of great significance in network analysis. Despite the classical spectral clustering and statistical inference methods, we notice a significant development of deep learning techniques for community detection in recent years with their advantages in handling high dimensional network data. Hence, a comprehensive overview of community detection's latest progress through deep learning is timely to both academics and practitioners. This survey devises and proposes a new taxonomy covering different categories of the state-of-the-art methods, including deep learning-based models upon deep neural networks, deep nonnegative matrix factorization and deep sparse filtering. The main category, i.e., deep neural networks, is further divided into convolutional networks, graph attention networks, generative adversarial networks and autoencoders. The survey also summarizes the popular benchmark data sets, model evaluation metrics, and open-source implementations to address experimentation settings. We then discuss the practical applications of community detection in various domains and point to implementation scenarios. Finally, we outline future directions by suggesting challenging topics in this fast-growing deep learning field.

Recent advances in maximizing mutual information (MI) between the source and target have demonstrated its effectiveness in text generation. However, previous works paid little attention to modeling the backward network of MI (i.e., dependency from the target to the source), which is crucial to the tightness of the variational information maximization lower bound. In this paper, we propose Adversarial Mutual Information (AMI): a text generation framework which is formed as a novel saddle point (min-max) optimization aiming to identify joint interactions between the source and target. Within this framework, the forward and backward networks are able to iteratively promote or demote each other's generated instances by comparing the real and synthetic data distributions. We also develop a latent noise sampling strategy that leverages random variations at the high-level semantic space to enhance the long term dependency in the generation process. Extensive experiments based on different text generation tasks demonstrate that the proposed AMI framework can significantly outperform several strong baselines, and we also show that AMI has potential to lead to a tighter lower bound of maximum mutual information for the variational information maximization problem.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.

We consider the problem of referring image segmentation. Given an input image and a natural language expression, the goal is to segment the object referred by the language expression in the image. Existing works in this area treat the language expression and the input image separately in their representations. They do not sufficiently capture long-range correlations between these two modalities. In this paper, we propose a cross-modal self-attention (CMSA) module that effectively captures the long-range dependencies between linguistic and visual features. Our model can adaptively focus on informative words in the referring expression and important regions in the input image. In addition, we propose a gated multi-level fusion module to selectively integrate self-attentive cross-modal features corresponding to different levels in the image. This module controls the information flow of features at different levels. We validate the proposed approach on four evaluation datasets. Our proposed approach consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods.