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The modeling of high-frequency data that qualify financial asset transactions has been an area of relevant interest among statisticians and econometricians -- above all, the analysis of time series of financial durations. Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models have been the main tool for modeling financial transaction data, where duration is usually defined as the time interval between two successive events. These models are usually specified in terms of a time-varying mean (or median) conditional duration. In this paper, a new extension of ACD models is proposed which is built on the basis of log-symmetric distributions reparametrized by their quantile. The proposed quantile log-symmetric conditional duration autoregressive model allows us to model different percentiles instead of the traditionally used conditional mean (or median) duration. We carry out an in-depth study of theoretical properties and practical issues, such as parameter estimation using maximum likelihood method and diagnostic analysis based on residuals. A detailed Monte Carlo simulation study is also carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed models and estimation method in retrieving the true parameter values as well as to evaluate a form of residuals. Finally, the proposed class of models is applied to a price duration data set and then used to derive a semi-parametric intraday value-at-risk (IVaR) model.

Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are being developed to combine predictive distributions, since no model is perfect and averaging generally improves forecasting performance. In this article we address the question of whether using CRPS learning, a novel weighting technique minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), leads to optimal decisions in day-ahead bidding. To this end, we conduct an empirical study using hourly day-ahead electricity prices from the German EPEX market. We find that increasing the diversity of an ensemble can have a positive impact on accuracy. At the same time, the higher computational cost of using CRPS learning compared to an equal-weighted aggregation of distributions is not offset by higher profits, despite significantly more accurate predictions.

Over the past decades, cognitive neuroscientists and behavioral economists have recognized the value of describing the process of decision making in detail and modeling the emergence of decisions over time. For example, the time it takes to decide can reveal more about an agents true hidden preferences than only the decision itself. Similarly, data that track the ongoing decision process such as eye movements or neural recordings contain critical information that can be exploited, even if no decision is made. Here, we argue that artificial intelligence (AI) research would benefit from a stronger focus on insights about how decisions emerge over time and incorporate related process data to improve AI predictions in general and human-AI interactions in particular. First, we introduce a highly established computational framework that assumes decisions to emerge from the noisy accumulation of evidence, and we present related empirical work in psychology, neuroscience, and economics. Next, we discuss to what extent current approaches in multi-agent AI do or do not incorporate process data and models of decision making. Finally, we outline how a more principled inclusion of the evidence-accumulation framework into the training and use of AI can help to improve human-AI interactions in the future.

This article investigates synthetic model-predictive control (MPC) problems to demonstrate that an increased precision of the internal prediction model (PM) automatially entails an improvement of the controller as a whole. In contrast to reinforcement learning (RL), MPC uses the PM to predict subsequent states of the controlled system (CS), instead of directly recommending suitable actions. To assess how the precision of the PM translates into the quality of the model-predictive controller, we compare a DNN-based PM to the optimal baseline PM for three well-known control problems of varying complexity. The baseline PM achieves perfect accuracy by accessing the simulation of the CS itself. Based on the obtained results, we argue that an improvement of the PM will always improve the controller as a whole, without considering the impact of other components such as action selection (which, in this article, relies on evolutionary optimization).

Introduction: Oblique Target-rotation in the context of exploratory factor analysis is a relevant method for the investigation of the oblique independent clusters model. It was argued that minimizing single cross-loadings by means of target rotation may lead to large effects of sampling error on the target rotated factor solutions. Method: In order to minimize effects of sampling error on results of Target-rotation we propose to compute the mean cross-loadings for each block of salient loadings of the independent clusters model and to perform target rotation for the block-wise mean cross-loadings. The resulting transformation-matrix is than applied to the complete unrotated loading matrix in order to produce mean Target-rotated factors. Results: A simulation study based on correlated independent factor models revealed that mean oblique Target-rotation resulted in smaller negative bias of factor inter-correlations than conventional Target-rotation based on single loadings, especially when sample size was small and when the number of factors was large. An empirical example revealed that the similarity of Target-rotated factors computed for small subsamples with Target-rotated factors of the total sample was more pronounced for mean Target-rotation than for conventional Target-rotation. Discussion: Mean Target-rotation can be recommended in the context of oblique independent factor models, especially for small samples. An R-script and an SPSS-script for this form of Target-rotation are provided in the Appendix.

The growth in data storage capacity and the increasing demands for high performance have created several challenges for concurrent indexing structures. One promising solution is learned indexes, which use a learning-based approach to fit the distribution of stored data and predictively locate target keys, significantly improving lookup performance. Despite their advantages, prevailing learned indexes exhibit constraints and encounter issues of scalability on multi-core data storage. This paper introduces SALI, the Scalable Adaptive Learned Index framework, which incorporates two strategies aimed at achieving high scalability, improving efficiency, and enhancing the robustness of the learned index. Firstly, a set of node-evolving strategies is defined to enable the learned index to adapt to various workload skews and enhance its concurrency performance in such scenarios. Secondly, a lightweight strategy is proposed to maintain statistical information within the learned index, with the goal of further improving the scalability of the index. Furthermore, to validate their effectiveness, SALI applied the two strategies mentioned above to the learned index structure that utilizes fine-grained write locks, known as LIPP. The experimental results have demonstrated that SALI significantly enhances the insertion throughput with 64 threads by an average of 2.04x compared to the second-best learned index. Furthermore, SALI accomplishes a lookup throughput similar to that of LIPP+.

When testing a statistical hypothesis, is it legitimate to deliberate on the basis of initial data about whether and how to collect further data? Game-theoretic probability's fundamental principle for testing by betting says yes, provided that you are testing by betting and do not risk more capital than initially committed. Standard statistical theory uses Cournot's principle, which does not allow such optional continuation. Cournot's principle can be extended to allow optional continuation when testing is carried out by multiplying likelihood ratios, but the extension lacks the simplicity and generality of testing by betting. Game-theoretic probability can also help us with descriptive data analysis. To obtain a purely and honestly descriptive analysis using competing probability distributions, we have them bet against each other using the Kelly principle. The place of confidence intervals is then taken by a sets of distributions that do relatively well in the competition. In the simplest implementation, these sets coincide with R. A. Fisher's likelihood intervals.

In epidemiology and social sciences, propensity score methods are popular for estimating treatment effects using observational data, and multiple imputation is popular for handling covariate missingness. However, how to appropriately use multiple imputation for propensity score analysis is not completely clear. This paper aims to bring clarity on the consistency (or lack thereof) of methods that have been proposed, focusing on the within approach (where the effect is estimated separately in each imputed dataset and then the multiple estimates are combined) and the across approach (where typically propensity scores are averaged across imputed datasets before being used for effect estimation). We show that the within method is valid and can be used with any causal effect estimator that is consistent in the full-data setting. Existing across methods are inconsistent, but a different across method that averages the inverse probability weights across imputed datasets is consistent for propensity score weighting. We also comment on methods that rely on imputing a function of the missing covariate rather than the covariate itself, including imputation of the propensity score and of the probability weight. Based on consistency results and practical flexibility, we recommend generally using the standard within method. Throughout, we provide intuition to make the results meaningful to the broad audience of applied researchers.

Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.

Deep learning constitutes a recent, modern technique for image processing and data analysis, with promising results and large potential. As deep learning has been successfully applied in various domains, it has recently entered also the domain of agriculture. In this paper, we perform a survey of 40 research efforts that employ deep learning techniques, applied to various agricultural and food production challenges. We examine the particular agricultural problems under study, the specific models and frameworks employed, the sources, nature and pre-processing of data used, and the overall performance achieved according to the metrics used at each work under study. Moreover, we study comparisons of deep learning with other existing popular techniques, in respect to differences in classification or regression performance. Our findings indicate that deep learning provides high accuracy, outperforming existing commonly used image processing techniques.