The grammatical gender of Swedish nouns is a mystery. While there are few rules that can indicate the gender with some certainty, it does in general not depend on either meaning or the structure of the word. In this paper we demonstrate the surprising fact that grammatical gender for Swedish nouns can be predicted with high accuracy using a recurrent neural network (RNN) working on the raw character sequence of the word, without using any contextual information.
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Digital image correlation (DIC) has become a valuable tool in the evaluation of mechanical experiments, particularly fatigue crack growth experiments. The evaluation requires accurate information of the crack path and crack tip position, which is difficult to obtain due to inherent noise and artefacts. Machine learning models have been extremely successful in recognizing this relevant information. But for the training of robust models, which generalize well, big data is needed. However, data is typically scarce in the field of material science and engineering because experiments are expensive and time-consuming. We present a method to generate synthetic DIC data using generative adversarial networks with a physics-guided discriminator. To decide whether data samples are real or fake, this discriminator additionally receives the derived von Mises equivalent strain. We show that this physics-guided approach leads to improved results in terms of visual quality of samples, sliced Wasserstein distance, and geometry score.
Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature due to their usefulness in decision making, particularly for high-consequence decisions. However, there has been little research done on how to evaluate the quality of such methods. We use statistical methods of frequentist interval coverage and interval width to evaluate the quality of credible intervals, and expected calibration error to evaluate classification predicted confidence. These metrics are evaluated on Bayesian neural networks (BNN) fit using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference (VI), bootstrapped neural networks (NN), Deep Ensembles (DE), and Monte Carlo (MC) dropout. We apply these different UQ for DL methods to a hyperspectral image target detection problem and show the inconsistency of the different methods' results and the necessity of a UQ quality metric. To reconcile these differences and choose a UQ method that appropriately quantifies the uncertainty, we create a simulated data set with fully parameterized probability distribution for a two-class classification problem. The gold standard MCMC performs the best overall, and the bootstrapped NN is a close second, requiring the same computational expense as DE. Through this comparison, we demonstrate that, for a given data set, different models can produce uncertainty estimates of markedly different quality. This in turn points to a great need for principled assessment methods of UQ quality in DL applications.
While there is wide agreement that physical activity is an important component of a healthy lifestyle, it is unclear how many people adhere to public health recommendations on physical activity. The Physical Activity Guidelines (PAG), published by the CDC, provide guidelines to American adults, but it is difficult to assess compliance with these guidelines. The PAG further complicate adherence assessment by recommending activity to occur in at least 10 minute bouts. To better understand the measurement capabilities of various instruments to quantify activity, and to propose an approach to evaluate activity relative to the PAG, researchers at Iowa State University administered the Physical Activity Measurement Survey (PAMS) to over 1,000 participants in four different Iowa counties. In this paper, we develop a two-part Bayesian measurement error model and apply it to the PAMS data in order to assess compliance to the PAG in the Iowa adult population. The model accurately accounts for the 10 minute bout requirement put forth in the PAG. The measurement error model corrects biased estimates and accounts for day to day variation in activity. The model is also applied to the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
Neural networks have revolutionized the field of machine learning with increased predictive capability. In addition to improving the predictions of neural networks, there is a simultaneous demand for reliable uncertainty quantification on estimates made by machine learning methods such as neural networks. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are an important type of neural network with built-in capability for quantifying uncertainty. This paper discusses aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in BNNs and how they can be calculated. With an example dataset of images where the goal is to identify the amplitude of an event in the image, it is shown that epistemic uncertainty tends to be lower in images which are well-represented in the training dataset and tends to be high in images which are not well-represented. An algorithm for out-of-distribution (OoD) detection with BNN epistemic uncertainty is introduced along with various experiments demonstrating factors influencing the OoD detection capability in a BNN. The OoD detection capability with epistemic uncertainty is shown to be comparable to the OoD detection in the discriminator network of a generative adversarial network (GAN) with comparable network architecture.
We consider the problem of estimating the roughness of the volatility in a stochastic volatility model that arises as a nonlinear function of fractional Brownian motion with drift. To this end, we introduce a new estimator that measures the so-called roughness exponent of a continuous trajectory, based on discrete observations of its antiderivative. We provide conditions on the underlying trajectory under which our estimator converges in a strictly pathwise sense. Then we verify that these conditions are satisfied by almost every sample path of fractional Brownian motion (with drift). As a consequence, we obtain strong consistency theorems in the context of a large class of rough volatility models. Numerical simulations show that our estimation procedure performs well after passing to a scale-invariant modification of our estimator.
Very distinct strategies can be deployed to recognize and characterize an unknown environment or a shape. A recent and promising approach, especially in robotics, is to reduce the complexity of the exploratory units to a minimum. Here, we show that this frugal strategy can be taken to the extreme by exploiting the power of statistical geometry and introducing new invariant features. We show that an elementary robot devoid of any orientation or observation system, exploring randomly, can access global information about an environment such as the values of the explored area and perimeter. The explored shapes are of arbitrary geometry and may even non-connected. From a dictionary, this most simple robot can thus identify various shapes such as famous monuments and even read a text.
In this paper, we propose a parameter identification methodology of the SIRD model, an extension of the classical SIR model, that considers the deceased as a separate category. In addition, our model includes one parameter which is the ratio between the real total number of infected and the number of infected that were documented in the official statistics. Due to many factors, like governmental decisions, several variants circulating, opening and closing of schools, the typical assumption that the parameters of the model stay constant for long periods of time is not realistic. Thus our objective is to create a method which works for short periods of time. In this scope, we approach the estimation relying on the previous 7 days of data and then use the identified parameters to make predictions. To perform the estimation of the parameters we propose the average of an ensemble of neural networks. Each neural network is constructed based on a database built by solving the SIRD for 7 days, with random parameters. In this way, the networks learn the parameters from the solution of the SIRD model. Lastly we use the ensemble to get estimates of the parameters from the real data of Covid19 in Romania and then we illustrate the predictions for different periods of time, from 10 up to 45 days, for the number of deaths. The main goal was to apply this approach on the analysis of COVID-19 evolution in Romania, but this was also exemplified on other countries like Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland with similar results. The results are backed by a theorem which guarantees that we can recover the parameters of the model from the reported data. We believe this methodology can be used as a general tool for dealing with short term predictions of infectious diseases or in other compartmental models.
Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) is one of the most popular temporal logics, that comes into play in a variety of branches of computer science. Among the various reasons of its widespread use there are its strong foundational properties: LTL is equivalent to counter-free omega-automata, to star-free omega-regular expressions, and (by Kamp's theorem) to the First-Order Theory of Linear Orders (FO-TLO). Safety and co-safety languages, where a finite prefix suffices to establish whether a word does not belong or belongs to the language, respectively, play a crucial role in lowering the complexity of problems like model checking and reactive synthesis for LTL. SafetyLTL (resp., coSafetyLTL) is a fragment of LTL where only universal (resp., existential) temporal modalities are allowed, that recognises safety (resp., co-safety) languages only. The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of a fragment of FO-TLO, called SafetyFO, and of its dual coSafetyFO, which are expressively complete with respect to the LTL-definable safety and co-safety languages. We prove that they exactly characterize SafetyLTL and coSafetyLTL, respectively, a result that joins Kamp's theorem, and provides a clearer view of the characterization of (fragments of) LTL in terms of first-order languages. In addition, it gives a direct, compact, and self-contained proof that any safety language definable in LTL is definable in SafetyLTL as well. As a by-product, we obtain some interesting results on the expressive power of the weak tomorrow operator of SafetyLTL, interpreted over finite and infinite words. Moreover, we prove that, when interpreted over finite words, SafetyLTL (resp. coSafetyLTL) devoid of the tomorrow (resp., weak tomorrow) operator captures the safety (resp., co-safety) fragment of LTL over finite words.
We present ResMLP, an architecture built entirely upon multi-layer perceptrons for image classification. It is a simple residual network that alternates (i) a linear layer in which image patches interact, independently and identically across channels, and (ii) a two-layer feed-forward network in which channels interact independently per patch. When trained with a modern training strategy using heavy data-augmentation and optionally distillation, it attains surprisingly good accuracy/complexity trade-offs on ImageNet. We will share our code based on the Timm library and pre-trained models.
Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.
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