In recent years, significant attention in deep learning theory has been devoted to analyzing when models that interpolate their training data can still generalize well to unseen examples. Many insights have been gained from studying models with multiple layers of Gaussian random features, for which one can compute precise generalization asymptotics. However, few works have considered the effect of weight anisotropy; most assume that the random features are generated using independent and identically distributed Gaussian weights, and allow only for structure in the input data. Here, we use the replica trick from statistical physics to derive learning curves for models with many layers of structured Gaussian features. We show that allowing correlations between the rows of the first layer of features can aid generalization, while structure in later layers is generally detrimental. Our results shed light on how weight structure affects generalization in a simple class of solvable models.
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Linear transformation of the state variable (linear preconditioning) is a common technique that often drastically improves the practical performance of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Despite this, however, the benefits of linear preconditioning are not well-studied theoretically, and rigorous guidelines for choosing preconditioners are not always readily available. Mixing time bounds for various samplers have been produced in recent works for the class of strongly log-concave and Lipschitz target distributions and depend strongly on a quantity known as the condition number. We study linear preconditioning for this class of distributions, and under appropriate assumptions we provide bounds on the condition number after using a given linear preconditioner. We provide bounds on the spectral gap of RWM that are tight in their dependence on the condition number under the same assumptions. Finally we offer a review and analysis of popular preconditioners. Of particular note, we identify a surprising case in which preconditioning with the diagonal of the target covariance can actually make the condition number \emph{increase} relative to doing no preconditioning at all.
With the growing prevalence of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based medical decision support systems, it is equally important to ensure that these systems provide patient outcomes in a fair and equitable fashion. This paper presents an innovative framework for detecting areas of algorithmic bias in medical-AI decision support systems. Our approach efficiently identifies potential biases in medical-AI models, specifically in the context of sepsis prediction, by employing the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm. We verify our methodology by conducting a series of synthetic data experiments, showcasing its ability to estimate areas of bias in controlled settings precisely. The effectiveness of the concept is further validated by experiments using electronic medical records from Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia. These tests demonstrate the practical implementation of our strategy in a clinical environment, where it can function as a vital instrument for guaranteeing fairness and equity in AI-based medical decisions.
Sample selection models represent a common methodology for correcting bias induced by data missing not at random. It is well known that these models are not empirically identifiable without exclusion restrictions. In other words, some variables predictive of missingness do not affect the outcome model of interest. The drive to establish this requirement often leads to the inclusion of irrelevant variables in the model. A recent proposal uses adaptive LASSO to circumvent this problem, but its performance depends on the so-called covariance assumption, which can be violated in small to moderate samples. Additionally, there are no tools yet for post-selection inference for this model. To address these challenges, we propose two families of spike-and-slab priors to conduct Bayesian variable selection in sample selection models. These prior structures allow for constructing a Gibbs sampler with tractable conditionals, which is scalable to the dimensions of practical interest. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology through a simulation study and present a comparison against adaptive LASSO and stepwise selection. We also provide two applications using publicly available real data. An implementation and code to reproduce the results in this paper can be found at //github.com/adam-iqbal/selection-spike-slab
This paper focuses on the randomized Milstein scheme for approximating solutions to stochastic Volterra integral equations with weakly singular kernels, where the drift coefficients are non-differentiable. An essential component of the error analysis involves the utilization of randomized quadrature rules for stochastic integrals to avoid the Taylor expansion in drift coefficient functions. Finally, we implement the simulation of multiple singular stochastic integral in the numerical experiment by applying the Riemann-Stieltjes integral.
The prediction accuracy of machine learning methods is steadily increasing, but the calibration of their uncertainty predictions poses a significant challenge. Numerous works focus on obtaining well-calibrated predictive models, but less is known about reliably assessing model calibration. This limits our ability to know when algorithms for improving calibration have a real effect, and when their improvements are merely artifacts due to random noise in finite datasets. In this work, we consider detecting mis-calibration of predictive models using a finite validation dataset as a hypothesis testing problem. The null hypothesis is that the predictive model is calibrated, while the alternative hypothesis is that the deviation from calibration is sufficiently large. We find that detecting mis-calibration is only possible when the conditional probabilities of the classes are sufficiently smooth functions of the predictions. When the conditional class probabilities are H\"older continuous, we propose T-Cal, a minimax optimal test for calibration based on a debiased plug-in estimator of the $\ell_2$-Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We further propose Adaptive T-Cal, a version that is adaptive to unknown smoothness. We verify our theoretical findings with a broad range of experiments, including with several popular deep neural net architectures and several standard post-hoc calibration methods. T-Cal is a practical general-purpose tool, which -- combined with classical tests for discrete-valued predictors -- can be used to test the calibration of virtually any probabilistic classification method.
Despite the advanced capabilities of contemporary machine learning (ML) models, they remain vulnerable to adversarial and backdoor attacks. This vulnerability is particularly concerning in real-world deployments, where compromised models may exhibit unpredictable behavior in critical scenarios. Such risks are heightened by the prevalent practice of collecting massive, internet-sourced datasets for pre-training multimodal models, as these datasets may harbor backdoors. Various techniques have been proposed to mitigate the effects of backdooring in these models such as CleanCLIP which is the current state-of-the-art approach. In this work, we demonstrate that the efficacy of CleanCLIP in mitigating backdoors is highly dependent on the particular objective used during model pre-training. We observe that stronger pre-training objectives correlate with harder to remove backdoors behaviors. We show this by training multimodal models on two large datasets consisting of 3 million (CC3M) and 6 million (CC6M) datapoints, under various pre-training objectives, followed by poison removal using CleanCLIP. We find that CleanCLIP is ineffective when stronger pre-training objectives are used, even with extensive hyperparameter tuning. Our findings underscore critical considerations for ML practitioners who pre-train models using large-scale web-curated data and are concerned about potential backdoor threats. Notably, our results suggest that simpler pre-training objectives are more amenable to effective backdoor removal. This insight is pivotal for practitioners seeking to balance the trade-offs between using stronger pre-training objectives and security against backdoor attacks.
We derive information-theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on the information contained in predictions rather than in the output of the training algorithm. These bounds improve over the existing information-theoretic bounds, are applicable to a wider range of algorithms, and solve two key challenges: (a) they give meaningful results for deterministic algorithms and (b) they are significantly easier to estimate. We show experimentally that the proposed bounds closely follow the generalization gap in practical scenarios for deep learning.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
Although measuring held-out accuracy has been the primary approach to evaluate generalization, it often overestimates the performance of NLP models, while alternative approaches for evaluating models either focus on individual tasks or on specific behaviors. Inspired by principles of behavioral testing in software engineering, we introduce CheckList, a task-agnostic methodology for testing NLP models. CheckList includes a matrix of general linguistic capabilities and test types that facilitate comprehensive test ideation, as well as a software tool to generate a large and diverse number of test cases quickly. We illustrate the utility of CheckList with tests for three tasks, identifying critical failures in both commercial and state-of-art models. In a user study, a team responsible for a commercial sentiment analysis model found new and actionable bugs in an extensively tested model. In another user study, NLP practitioners with CheckList created twice as many tests, and found almost three times as many bugs as users without it.
Graph representation learning for hypergraphs can be used to extract patterns among higher-order interactions that are critically important in many real world problems. Current approaches designed for hypergraphs, however, are unable to handle different types of hypergraphs and are typically not generic for various learning tasks. Indeed, models that can predict variable-sized heterogeneous hyperedges have not been available. Here we develop a new self-attention based graph neural network called Hyper-SAGNN applicable to homogeneous and heterogeneous hypergraphs with variable hyperedge sizes. We perform extensive evaluations on multiple datasets, including four benchmark network datasets and two single-cell Hi-C datasets in genomics. We demonstrate that Hyper-SAGNN significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on traditional tasks while also achieving great performance on a new task called outsider identification. Hyper-SAGNN will be useful for graph representation learning to uncover complex higher-order interactions in different applications.
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