Annotating data via crowdsourcing is time-consuming and expensive. Owing to these costs, dataset creators often have each annotator label only a small subset of the data. This leads to sparse datasets with examples that are marked by few annotators; if an annotator is not selected to label an example, their opinion regarding it is lost. This is especially concerning for subjective NLP datasets where there is no correct label: people may have different valid opinions. Thus, we propose using imputation methods to restore the opinions of all annotators for all examples, creating a dataset that does not leave out any annotator's view. We then train and prompt models with data from the imputed dataset (rather than the original sparse dataset) to make predictions about majority and individual annotations. Unfortunately, the imputed data provided by our baseline methods does not improve predictions. However, through our analysis of it, we develop a strong understanding of how different imputation methods impact the original data in order to inform future imputation techniques. We make all of our code and data publicly available.
相關內容
Methods to generate text from structured data have advanced significantly in recent years, primarily due to fine-tuning of pre-trained language models on large datasets. However, such models can fail to produce output faithful to the input data, particularly on out-of-domain data. Sufficient annotated data is often not available for specific domains, leading us to seek an unsupervised approach to improve the faithfulness of output text. Since the problem is fundamentally one of consistency between the representations of the structured data and text, we evaluate the effectiveness of cycle training in this work. Cycle training uses two models which are inverses of each other: one that generates text from structured data, and one which generates the structured data from natural language text. We show that cycle training, when initialized with a small amount of supervised data (100 samples in our case), achieves nearly the same performance as fully supervised approaches for the data-to-text generation task on the WebNLG, E2E, WTQ, and WSQL datasets. We perform extensive empirical analysis with automated evaluation metrics and a newly designed human evaluation schema to reveal different cycle training strategies' effectiveness of reducing various types of generation errors. Our code is publicly available at //github.com/Edillower/CycleNLG.
Autonomous vehicles require accurate and reliable short-term trajectory predictions for safe and efficient driving. While most commercial automated vehicles currently use state machine-based algorithms for trajectory forecasting, recent efforts have focused on end-to-end data-driven systems. Often, the design of these models is limited by the availability of datasets, which are typically restricted to generic scenarios. To address this limitation, we have developed a synthetic dataset for short-term trajectory prediction tasks using the CARLA simulator. This dataset is extensive and incorporates what is considered complex scenarios - pedestrians crossing the road, vehicles overtaking - and comprises 6000 perspective view images with corresponding IMU and odometry information for each frame. Furthermore, an end-to-end short-term trajectory prediction model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks has also been developed. This model can handle corner cases, such as slowing down near zebra crossings and stopping when pedestrians cross the road, without the need for explicit encoding of the surrounding environment. In an effort to accelerate this research and assist others, we are releasing our dataset and model to the research community. Our datasets are publicly available on //github.com/navigatinguncertainty.
Different distribution shifts require different algorithmic and operational interventions. Methodological research must be grounded by the specific shifts they address. Although nascent benchmarks provide a promising empirical foundation, they implicitly focus on covariate shifts, and the validity of empirical findings depends on the type of shift, e.g., previous observations on algorithmic performance can fail to be valid when the $Y|X$ distribution changes. We conduct a thorough investigation of natural shifts in 5 tabular datasets over 86,000 model configurations, and find that $Y|X$-shifts are most prevalent. To encourage researchers to develop a refined language for distribution shifts, we build WhyShift, an empirical testbed of curated real-world shifts where we characterize the type of shift we benchmark performance over. Since $Y|X$-shifts are prevalent in tabular settings, we identify covariate regions that suffer the biggest $Y|X$-shifts and discuss implications for algorithmic and data-based interventions. Our testbed highlights the importance of future research that builds an understanding of how distributions differ.
We consider the problem of incentivising desirable behaviours in multi-agent systems by way of taxation schemes. Our study employs the concurrent games model: in this model, each agent is primarily motivated to seek the satisfaction of a goal, expressed as a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formula; secondarily, agents seek to minimise costs, where costs are imposed based on the actions taken by agents in different states of the game. In this setting, we consider an external principal who can influence agents' preferences by imposing taxes (additional costs) on the actions chosen by agents in different states. The principal imposes taxation schemes to motivate agents to choose a course of action that will lead to the satisfaction of their goal, also expressed as an LTL formula. However, taxation schemes are limited in their ability to influence agents' preferences: an agent will always prefer to satisfy its goal rather than otherwise, no matter what the costs. The fundamental question that we study is whether the principal can impose a taxation scheme such that, in the resulting game, the principal's goal is satisfied in at least one or all runs of the game that could arise by agents choosing to follow game-theoretic equilibrium strategies. We consider two different types of taxation schemes: in a static scheme, the same tax is imposed on a state-action profile pair in all circumstances, while in a dynamic scheme, the principal can choose to vary taxes depending on the circumstances. We investigate the main game-theoretic properties of this model as well as the computational complexity of the relevant decision problems.
This article inspects whether a multivariate distribution is different from a specified distribution or not, and it also tests the equality of two multivariate distributions. In the course of this study, a graphical tool-kit using well-known half-spaced depth based information criteria is proposed, which is a two-dimensional plot, regardless of the dimension of the data, and it is even useful in comparing high-dimensional distributions. The simple interpretability of the proposed graphical tool-kit motivates us to formulate test statistics to carry out the corresponding testing of hypothesis problems. It is established that the proposed tests based on the same information criteria are consistent, and moreover, the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics under contiguous/local alternatives are derived, which enable us to compute the asymptotic power of these tests. Furthermore, it is observed that the computations associated with the proposed tests are unburdensome. Besides, these tests perform better than many other tests available in the literature when data are generated from various distributions such as heavy tailed distributions, which indicates that the proposed methodology is robust as well. Finally, the usefulness of the proposed graphical tool-kit and tests is shown on two benchmark real data sets.
This paper presents a novel Importance Sampling (IS) scheme for estimating distribution tails of performance measures modeled with a rich set of tools such as linear programs, integer linear programs, piecewise linear/quadratic objectives, feature maps specified with deep neural networks, etc. The conventional approach of explicitly identifying efficient changes of measure suffers from feasibility and scalability concerns beyond highly stylized models, due to their need to be tailored intricately to the objective and the underlying probability distribution. This bottleneck is overcome in the proposed scheme with an elementary transformation which is capable of implicitly inducing an effective IS distribution in a variety of models by replicating the concentration properties observed in less rare samples. This novel approach is guided by developing a large deviations principle that brings out the phenomenon of self-similarity of optimal IS distributions. The proposed sampler is the first to attain asymptotically optimal variance reduction across a spectrum of multivariate distributions despite being oblivious to the specifics of the underlying model. Its applicability is illustrated with contextual shortest path and portfolio credit risk models informed by neural networks
A fundamental result in psycholinguistics is that less predictable words take a longer time to process. One theoretical explanation for this finding is Surprisal Theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008), which quantifies a word's predictability as its surprisal, i.e. its negative log-probability given a context. While evidence supporting the predictions of Surprisal Theory have been replicated widely, most have focused on a very narrow slice of data: native English speakers reading English texts. Indeed, no comprehensive multilingual analysis exists. We address this gap in the current literature by investigating the relationship between surprisal and reading times in eleven different languages, distributed across five language families. Deriving estimates from language models trained on monolingual and multilingual corpora, we test three predictions associated with surprisal theory: (i) whether surprisal is predictive of reading times; (ii) whether expected surprisal, i.e. contextual entropy, is predictive of reading times; (iii) and whether the linking function between surprisal and reading times is linear. We find that all three predictions are borne out crosslinguistically. By focusing on a more diverse set of languages, we argue that these results offer the most robust link to-date between information theory and incremental language processing across languages.
There is abundant observational data in the software engineering domain, whereas running large-scale controlled experiments is often practically impossible. Thus, most empirical studies can only report statistical correlations -- instead of potentially more insightful and robust causal relations. To support analyzing purely observational data for causal relations, and to assess any differences between purely predictive and causal models of the same data, this paper discusses some novel techniques based on structural causal models (such as directed acyclic graphs of causal Bayesian networks). Using these techniques, one can rigorously express, and partially validate, causal hypotheses; and then use the causal information to guide the construction of a statistical model that captures genuine causal relations -- such that correlation does imply causation. We apply these ideas to analyzing public data about programmer performance in Code Jam, a large world-wide coding contest organized by Google every year. Specifically, we look at the impact of different programming languages on a participant's performance in the contest. While the overall effect associated with programming languages is weak compared to other variables -- regardless of whether we consider correlational or causal links -- we found considerable differences between a purely associational and a causal analysis of the very same data. The takeaway message is that even an imperfect causal analysis of observational data can help answer the salient research questions more precisely and more robustly than with just purely predictive techniques -- where genuine causal effects may be confounded.
Opinion formation by belief propagation: A heuristic to identify low-credible sources of information
With social media, the flow of uncertified information is constantly increasing, with the risk that more people will trust low-credible information sources. To design effective strategies against this phenomenon, it is of paramount importance to understand how people end up believing one source rather than another. To this end, we propose a realistic and cognitively affordable heuristic mechanism for opinion formation inspired by the well-known belief propagation algorithm. In our model, an individual observing a network of information sources must infer which of them are reliable and which are not. We study how the individual's ability to identify credible sources, and hence to form correct opinions, is affected by the noise in the system, intended as the amount of disorder in the relationships between the information sources in the network. We find numerically and analytically that there is a critical noise level above which it is impossible for the individual to detect the nature of the sources. Moreover, by comparing our opinion formation model with existing ones in the literature, we show under what conditions people's opinions can be reliable. Overall, our findings imply that the increasing complexity of the information environment is a catalyst for misinformation channels.
The recent proliferation of knowledge graphs (KGs) coupled with incomplete or partial information, in the form of missing relations (links) between entities, has fueled a lot of research on knowledge base completion (also known as relation prediction). Several recent works suggest that convolutional neural network (CNN) based models generate richer and more expressive feature embeddings and hence also perform well on relation prediction. However, we observe that these KG embeddings treat triples independently and thus fail to cover the complex and hidden information that is inherently implicit in the local neighborhood surrounding a triple. To this effect, our paper proposes a novel attention based feature embedding that captures both entity and relation features in any given entity's neighborhood. Additionally, we also encapsulate relation clusters and multihop relations in our model. Our empirical study offers insights into the efficacy of our attention based model and we show marked performance gains in comparison to state of the art methods on all datasets.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191